Afterbirth (Week 6)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

The Calm After the Storm

Week 6 in college football was remarkably calm and predictable after the Top 25 massacre that happened last week. I was 10-0 on my Crystal Ball picks (*pats self on back*). Hey, when I suck, I'll admit it, so humor me on the rare occasions when I'm brilliant.

The only “upsets” were Pittsburgh’s Thursday night win at South Florida, and Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State. I suppose Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn could be considered an upset, but that was at least somewhat predictable (I predicted it!), and very enjoyable. You’ve heard of the Prevent Defense? Auburn is apparently running the Prevent Offense. LSU's close win over Auburn is suddenly looking a bit less impressive.

Speaking of the Tigers...

If you're a Gator fan, and I am, there is only one thought that will pervade every waking moment (and some of the sleeping ones) during the upcoming week:



Conference Cannibalism

The Big 12 is finding out what it's like to be in the SEC, where you eat your own on a weekly basis. It's so difficult to escape the SEC regular season schedule unbeaten. Then toss in the league championship game, and it's a recipe for a one or two loss season, even for the best of teams. Only in recent years have the alleged experts decided that a one or two loss SEC team is still better than most of the teams out there.

This week, Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout. Which means one of the nation's top five teams will lose. I would argue that Oklahoma and Missouri are the two best teams around. But, assuming both teams continue to win in the regular season, one of them will beat the other in the Big 12 championship game. The loser of that game won't play for the national championship, but they may be, arguably, better than at least one of the teams that does.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Stanford @ Notre Dame
The Cardinal's 3-2 start has them believing they have a right to talk trash about the Irish. I don't know why. Notre Dame, on the other hand, found some offense in last week's win over Purdue. Notre Dame is 88th in the nation in total offense. Stanford is 105th. Give me the Irish at home.

#24 Connecticut @ North Carolina
Connecticut QB Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot in the win over Louisville, so the Huskies must rely on Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer. Connecticut's Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing, but North Carolina has a solid, physical defense. And they're playing at home.

#23 Oregon @ Southern California
If Oregon could keep a quarterback healthy, they might have a chance in this game. I think the Ducks can keep it close, but the Trojans have too many horses.

#14 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin
The Badger band is suspended for the game for alleged incidents of hazing and sexual misconduct. That will be the difference in the game, right? Nah. Once again, the Badgers get exposed as pretenders. This game should be close, but look for the Buckeyes to find ways to maximize Terrelle Pryor's effectiveness.

#13 Auburn @ #19 Vanderbilt
It’s hard not to root for Vanderbilt – even if only out of sympathy for their decades of football futility. They play smart football – what a shock – ranking second in the nation in fewest penalties per game, and leading the nation in turnover margin. Auburn’s offense is a work in progress, to put it kindly. I like the Commodores.

#12 Florida @ Arkansas
This game is simple. Arkansas is not very good. Florida is very angry.

Florida State @ Miami
This is always a hard-hitting, entertaining game. Both teams have very good defenses, and very average offenses. Somehow, the 'Noles pull this one off.

#5 Texas @ Colorado
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 against Colorado. I don't think this Longhorn team is as good as past incarnations, but they are good enough to beat the Buffs.

#4 Missouri @ Nebraska
The Huskers have beaten Missouri 15 straight times in Lincoln. The streak stops here. Missouri has two legitimate Heisman candidates in QB Chase Daniel and reciever Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska still has a shred of the Big Red pride, and that alone may help them keep the game close. For about five minutes.

Illinois @ Michigan
Wolverine fans think their season turned around last week with the surprising upset of Wisconsin. I don't. I think Illinois has a few too many weapons, and Michigan not quite enough.

Anatomy of an Upset

Upsets are among the things that make college football great. Who doesn’t like to see a seemingly hopeless underdog find something akin to divine inspiration, take advantage of their opponent's miscues, and, with help from the phases of the moon, and possibly a rabbit’s foot, somehow score a point or two more than the once-feared favorite? Sympathizing with the underdog is something that seems to be stitched into the fabric of the American character. I lapse into ridiculous giggling when I watch an upset. I think it was W.C. Fields who said, “Comedy is tragedy happening to somebody else.”

I definitely enjoy a good upset every now and then. Unless it happens to my team. In which case, it’s not fun at all. When my teams loses a game in which they were heavy favorites, it is clearly the result of an infuriating failure on the part of every player, coach and referee who had anything to do with it. Isn’t it?

After the fifth Saturday in the fall for the past two years, I've had alot to laugh about. And complain about.

Last year, in Week 5 of the college football season, five of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. This year, in week five – this past Saturday – four of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. Nine of the top twenty-five teams lost. So many things have to happen in just the right way for a major upset to occur. Since I’m painfully acquainted with Mississippi’s shocking win over Florida, let’s examine that in some detail.

Leading 17-7, after two lackluster opening periods, the Gators opened the second half with two fumbles in their own end of the field, resulting in 10 quick Mississippi points. The Gators hadn’t turned the ball over at all in three previous games, but lost three fumbles Saturday. Combine sloppy ball-handling with a 40 yard touchdown run by Rebel tailback Dexter McCluster late in the third quarter – a run on which the Gator defense missed three or four tackles – and that provided the scoring burst that decided the game.



The Rebels blitzed the Florida offense repeatedly, causing turmoil in the offensive line and, thus, in the offensive backfield. When the offense sputtered, field position suffered. In the first three games, no Gator opponent had started a drive in Florida’s end of the field. On Saturday, Mississippi began drives in Gator territory six times. Seven times the Gators faced third down with ten or more yards to go. No wonder they were one of eleven on third down conversions. Mississippi had 325 yards of total offense, but 170 of them came on just four plays – two of which were backbreakers for the Gators – McCluster’s 40 yard run, and an 86 yard touchdown pass from Rebel QB Jevan Snead to Shay Hodge with just over five minutes left in the game.

I take nothing from the effort that the Rebel players put forth. They played hard. But Mississippi had many things go right for them and many things go wrong for the Gators, and still needed to block an extra point attempt with 3:28 remaining, and stop Tim Tebow on a fourth and one on their own 32 yard line with 40 seconds on the clock to preserve the one point victory. Such is the nature of an upset.

Southern California, Georgia and Wisconsin suffered the same kind of disappointment on Saturday. Of course, I laughed when it happened to them.

If you don’t think this is a strange college football season already, imagine this: Kentucky and Vanderbilt are now the only unbeaten teams remaining in the SEC’s East Division.

Afterbirth (Week 5)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

What's the Deal with Week 5?

In the first month of the season, you knew something wasn’t quite right when Vanderbilt broke into the Top 25, and Wake Forest looked like the best team in the ACC. During those first four weeks, you hope you can start to get an idea which teams are genuinely good, and which teams are simply riding a worthless wave of media hype. And right when you think you’re starting to make sense of it all, Week 5 arrives. In Week 5 last year, five of the top ten teams lost. This year four of the top ten teams, and nine of the top twenty-five, lost. If I’m a coach at a major college, I’ve got to at least think about how to adjust my schedule to get a bye week in Week 5.

Badgers? We Don't Need No Stinking Badgers.

What does it take to revive bowl hopes in Ann Arbor? A vastly overrated Wisconsin team. After dominating the first half, and leading 19-0, the Badgers fell asleep in the locker room. Following the intermission, Michigan scored 27 unanswered points, and held on to win 27-25. Wisconsin’s next five games: Ohio State, Penn State, @ Iowa, Illinois, @ Michigan State. This is a team that will be 6-3 by the second week of November.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

I hate Miami, but you have to give them credit for two crushing blocks on the same punt return in their loss to North Carolina. Video below:



How About a Handoff?

It’s easy to sit on a barstool, beer in hand, and second guess some of the decisions made every weekend in the fall. I’ll admit it’s MUCH easier than being the guy making the decisions. Having said that, I couldn’t help but wonder why Louisville was passing the ball on 3rd and 7 from their own 40 yard line with 2:56 left in the game, and a one point lead. Connecticut quarterback Tyler Lorenzen had left the game with a broken foot, and the Huskies’ offense had been inconsistent. You’ve got to like your chances punting from near midfield, and that’s assuming a third down handoff wouldn’t have gotten the necessary first down yardage. Instead, Cardinal quarterback Hunter Cantwell threw an ugly pass into the flat that was intercepted and returned for the winning touchdown. Do you think Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe would like to have a do-over on that one?

Thanks for the 411. Now Piss Off.

I hate sportswriters. Talk about lemmings. How much propaganda did we have to read about USC before this season started, and right up until 11 o’clock Thursday night? After that, every writer in the country was scrambling to revise his previous assessment of the Trojan prowess. Now everyone wants to point out that USC has lost to Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State over the last three years. Oregon State twice. Why didn’t you tell us that before Thursday night?

Sportswriters are in on the same conference calls, and get the same information every week. They share their thoughts so that mistaken impressions get compounded. Rumor becomes idea. Idea becomes story. Story becomes fact. Then it gets crammed down our collective throats like it’s the gridiron gospel. It takes a hard worker and a sharp thinker to see things from a different angle. So what you tend to get is different versions of the same story. Unlike most people, I was not impressed with USC’s win over Virginia in Week 2, and I said so, right here.

I’m not always right. Far from it. But I’m right just about as often as the people who present themselves as experts. That’s something that should scare you. Especially when you think about how much you rely on media for information.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#1 USC @ Oregon State
As noted in my previous entry, Oregon State has had some success against Southern California. The Beavers’ somewhat shocking 33-31 victory in 2006 stopped the Trojans’ 38 game regular season winning streak. While I’m normally not in favor of Trojan-busting, I’m all for it this year. Unfortunately, the Beavers don't appear to be capable of another shocker.

Connecticut @ Louisville
I’ve seen Louisville play once this year – in the opening loss to Kentucky - and their defense was downright offensive. It appears as if they've improved since then. They are 2nd in the nation against the run. Connecticut leads the Big East and ranks 6th in the nation in rushing offense. Something’s gotta give. The Huskies are 4-0 so far, but have struggled at times getting there. My gut feeling is to pick Connecticut, so I’m going to take the Cardinals at home in a squeaker.

Mississippi @ #4 Florida
In the last two games, Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead has thrown 6 interceptions and no touchdown passes. Florida is not the best team to play when you’re turnover prone – the Gators are tied for 2nd in the nation in turnover margin, and are the only team in the nation that has yet to lose a fumble or throw an interception. This year’s Gator squad is winning the battle of field position with solid defense and stellar special teams play. The Rebels are not bad, but not good enough to beat the Gators at home.

Tennessee @ #15 Auburn
The Gators slugged Tennessee 59-20 last year, but the Vols rebounded to pound Georgia and win the SEC’s East Division. The optimists in Knoxville (all three of them) are hoping this year’s squad can pull off a similar miracle after demoralizing losses to UCLA and, once again, Florida. Auburn is not particularly bad at anything, but not particularly good at anything either. My partly insane friend Ron thinks the Vols have a chance of pulling off an upset in Auburn. When he told me that, I thought briefly about the possibility, and quietly went to check his medicine cabinet to see if the anti-psychotic prescriptions had expired. Then I decided he might be right. The Vols need to regroup, and the loveliest village on the plains is just the place to do it.

#25 Fresno State @ UCLA
Statistically speaking, Fresno State and UCLA are not impressive. But every time I’ve watched the Bulldogs, they play a tough, physical style of ball, and I love that. Add that to the fact that I hate first year Bruin head coach Rick Nueheisel, and you get me picking Fresno State over the Teddy Bears.

#9 Wisconsin @ Michigan
Every time I pick a Wisconsin game, I try to mention that I think they are the most consistently over-rated team in college football. (Sorry, Bart). You know they are going to lose a game somewhere. But not this Saturday. The Badgers haven’t won a game in Ann Arbor since 1994. It’s time.

#24 TCU @ #2 Oklahoma
On paper, TCU looks like a very good team. Too bad they don’t play these games on paper. The Horned Frogs have beaten up the likes of New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and SMU. TCU has won the last two games in Norman, but that was in 2005 and 1996. It won’t be in 2008. I think TCU is a legitimately good team. I just think Oklahoma is a legitimately better team.

#8 Alabama @ #3 Georgia
Alabama has been one of the major surprises of this young season. Sort of. Nobody expected them to dominate Clemson the way they did in the opener. But their subsequent victories, while convincing, can’t be called surprising. Come on. We’re talking about Tulane, Western Kentucky and a lousy Arkansas team. The Tide is very much improved in Nick Saban’s second year, but not good enough to beat the Dawgs between the hedges.

#22 Illinois @ #12 Penn State
Believe it or not, Penn State has won 23 of the last 25 games in Happy Valley. When I have doubts, I always pick against the team coached by Ron Zook. And I have no doubts about this one. Papa Joe and Penn State win this one.

Colorado vs Florida State (Jacksonville)
Let me make this as clear as I can. I hate Florida State. Last week, I giggled like a school girl watching Wake Forest beat the ‘Noles for the third straight year. FSU quarterbacks combined for 5 interceptions against the Demon Decons. Unfortunately, the Seminoles seem to be decent on defense, and may keep the Buffs from scoring enough points to win.

Bonus Pick: Purdue over Notre Dame in South Bend