My Crystal Ball Says... (Week 9)

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Week 9

Ok, ok, I know. I am lame. I haven't put My Crystal Ball to work in a couple of weeks. First of all, I was a little disturbed when my picks - based on decades of watching and writing about college football - were outdone by the tossing of a coin. Secondly, I've been getting my ass kicked lately by life in general, and work in particular. If any of you can hook me up with a sponsor that has deeper pockets than my current one, I will gladly abandon my regular working life and dedicate myself to My Crystal Ball full time, provided I can still afford cheap beer and expensive champagne.

This week, I'm going to kick the quarter's ass.

#2 Oregon at USC -  This is a popular upset pick this week.  NCAA sanctions will prevent USC from playing in a bowl game, and, apparently, they are treating this game like the Big Game.  So, for some reason, the alleged experts think the Trojans can pull this off.  At first glimpse, it appears that Oregon has a clear advantage.  They are unbeaten (7-0).  Their offense has been running like a sports car, smooth and fast, and their defense has been surprisingly tough.  But, even though USC is 5-2, the losses have been by a combined total of three points, both on last second field goals.  The Trojan defense has struggled, but should play well at home in a game like this.  I hate USC.  They cheated, got caught, and are now mad about it.  Hey, choices have consequences.  It's called life.  Deal with it.  And if you think Reggie Bush was the only player getting paid to play, contact me immediately; I have some oceanfront property in Kansas that I will sell you cheap.  But at least they made things better after Pete Carroll abandoned the floundering ship by hiring Lane Kiffin, who has habitually thumbed his nose at the NCAA, and everybody else for that matter.  This despite the fact that his career record as a head coach is currently 17-23.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again; if anybody wants to pay me $3 million a year to be an idiot, I will gladly sign your contract.  And I promise to give you the most idiot your money can buy.  I would love to see an upset here, partly because I just like upsets (except when they happen to my team), and partly because I want Boise State to get a spot in the BCS Championship game.  But I think the Ducks have too much depth, and will pull away late.  And Lane Kiffin will be 17-24.   *chuckles*

Quarter says:  Oregon

#5 Michigan State at #18 Iowa - It's hard to appreciate the style of football they play in a league that still isn't sure how many members it has. I finally understand why they have so many noon kickoffs in the Big Ten Plus One Soon to be Twelve - who could stay awake late at night watching this stuff?  Iowa is starting to remind me of Wisconsin - you can always count on them for a key conference win and a key conference loss.  It must be painfully tantalizing for their fans.  No wonder they whine so much.  Iowa (5-2) is coming off a close home loss to Wisconsin, but they are solid, if not spectacular, on both sides of the ball.  Michigan State comes into this game unbeaten (8-0) and under pressure.  They've beaten some teams that are decent, at least on paper, but their most notable accomplishment so far seems to be beating Notre Dame on a trick play that was so exciting the coach who called it subsequently had a heart attack.  I'm happy that Mark Dantonio has recovered, and has returned to the sidelines.  But I'm hoping that Saturday's game doesn't send him back to the emergency room.  Michigan State has lost six straight at Iowa, dating back to 1991.  The Hawkeyes will see that the streak runs to seven.

Quarter says:  Michigan State

#1 Auburn at Mississippi - This is another popular upset pick among the alleged experts.  Rebel coach Houston Nutt does have a pretty remarkable record in upset victories - knocking off #1 teams on the road in 2008 (Florida) and 2007 (LSU), and beating #2 Auburn in 2006 (while the head coach at Arkansas). But Mississippi (3-4) has never beaten Auburn (8-0) when the Tigers are ranked (0-13).  And Cam Newton has started to look like a man among boys.  Right now, it's his Heisman to lose, and I don't see him losing it in Oxford.  If Auburn keeps winning - and I think they will - it sets up a huge Iron Bowl at Alabama on November 26th.

Quarter says:  Auburn

Florida vs Georgia (Jacksonville) - I have to be honest.  It's hard to care about this game.  Both teams had high expectations, and both teams have been, basically, terrible.  Georgia has been improving since receiver A.J. Green returned from suspension - they've won three in a row.  Florida, on the other hand, comes in with a three game losing streak, and with an offense that spends as much time standing still - or going backwards - as it does doing anything positive at all.  While Georgia spent last week struggling with Kentucky, Florida had an off week to try to figure out how to move the ball.  The Gator defense has been porous at times, but is playing better than expected most of the time.  I think the Florida players and coaches need this win desperately.  And, somehow, I think they'll get it.

Quarter says:  Georgia

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Stanford Not Just for Nerds Any More

Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh has the Tree playing a physical style of football that is fun to watch. It takes tough guys to play that way, and Stanford has a few.

Quarterback Andrew Luck is a big guy with a strong arm. And, as he shows in the video clip below, he is tough. For a quarterback...

Upon Further Review (Week 5)

Illegal Procedure Exclusive Photo: The Zooker Does It Again

This was a familiar sight to Florida fans from 2002 to the middle of 2004.  Since then, it has become a familiar sight to Illinois fans.  In this photo - an Illegal Procedure exclusive - the rest of you get to know Ron Zook as Florida and Illinois fans know him.  He has spent years trying - and failing - to  coach his way out of a paper bag.

Let's look at the latest example from this past Saturday.

Ohio State paid a visit to Champaign, and the Illini struggled mightily to keep the game close.  Trailing 17-10 in the middle of the 4th quarter, the Illini pieced together a drive that left them at the Buckeyes' 13 yard line with under five minutes to play.  Illinois had burned a time out on defense during Ohio State's previous possession, so they had two left.  It's 4th and 7.

If you have a normal, functioning brain, you would think to yourself, Ohio State chewed up almost 8 minutes on their last possession - which led to a field goal.  Even though I have two time outs, I may not get the ball back.  I need to go for it on 4th down.  I need a touchdown here.  A field goal does me no good.  Even if the field goal is good, I still need a touchdown to win.

But Ron Zook, apparently, does not have a normal, functioning brain.  He decided to kick a field goal to make it 17-13.  Ron, think about this, after that field goal you kicked, you still needed a touchdown.  Why not go for it on 4th down?  Did you really think you could get a field goal and a touchdown on your last two possessions if, indeed you actually got another possession?  And despite the fact that you had managed 10 points in the previous 55 minutes of the game, you thought you were going to score another 10 in the last 5 minutes?

Thankfully for fans of the Zooker, he was saved from Bonehead of the Week status by the actions of Legendary Bonehead Les Miles...

Bonehead of the Week

How many times can Les Miles reach into his bag of lucky tricks and pull out a win?  Seriously.  Saturday's last second tragically comic ending in the game against Tennessee would probably earn him Bonehead of the Year honors, if we had such a thing.

Trailing 14-10, LSU miraculously drove 69 yards for the winning score, along the way converting a 4th and 14 that should have been a 4th and 9, except for poor clock management that caused a delay of game penalty.  Slow play-calling and substitution had caused LSU to burn the last of their timeouts just a moment before.  But the preposterously stupid part came at the very end.

With a 2nd and goal at the Tennessee 2 yard line, and time running out, Tiger quarterback Jordan Jefferson scrambled for a yard to the Volunteer 1.  With the clock running down to single digits, LSU, inexplicably, decided to change personnel before running the next play.  There was no way it was going to work, and, in fact, it didn't.  LSU center T Bob Hebert, seeing the clock ticking down near zero, snapped the ball before Jefferson was expecting it.  The snap went behind him, and all Jefferson could do was run and fall on it. 

Game over.

Except it wasn't.

The only thing more unbelievable than LSU changing personnel with the clock inside of 10 seconds and running was the fact that Tennessee tried to substitute to match LSU's line up.  As LSU snapped the ball on what should have been the last, hopeless play of the game, Tennessee had 13 men on the field. 

Penalty.  Illegal participation.

LSU was allowed to repeat the last play, with no time on the clock, and the result of that play was a Stevan Ridley 1 yard run for the winning score. Final: LSU 16 - Tennessee 14.

What would possibly make anyone think that situation substitution would be a good idea with 9 seconds on the clock and no time outs?

Amazingly, Les Miles thought so.  And got away with it. 

But he is still the Bonehead of the Week.

Addazio Calling Plays for the Wrong QB

I am still ready and willing to say that Alabama is the best team in the country right now, so let's make no mistake about that. But if you look back at Saturday's win over Florida, it wasn't the colossal beatdown that most of the alleged experts would lead you to believe.

First of all, Florida has been a slow-starting team all year, and Alabama is certainly good enough to take advantage of that. The Gators outgained the Tide by a 2 to 1 margin in the second half. Sure, by then, Alabama had a comfortable lead, but, if you're going to tell me that Nick Saban called off the dogs early then you don't know much about Nick Saban.

Secondly - and I know there isn't much sense in using your imagination to retroactively remove certain plays from a game, but let's think about this - if Florida manages to score touchdowns both times they moved the ball inside the Alabama two yard line and came away empty, and, if they don't throw the pick 6 in the 3rd quarter, then you're looking at a 24-20 game. Still a Florida loss, but not exactly a behind the woodshed whipping.

Thirdly, the Gator defense is good enough to keep them in a game with anybody. When the Florida coaching staff finally realizes that what they have is a drop-back passing quarterback and not a spread option quarterback, and begins calling plays accordingly, they will become significantly more effective.

Florida offensive coordinator Steve Addazio has shown absolutely no ability to establish a tempo or rhythm with his playcalling, and help his new starting quarterback get into the flow of a game. He calls plays as if he has written them on little cut up strips of paper that he then pulls out of a hat during the game.

That little inside hand-off dive play that he likes so much...? Never going to work when there is no credible threat that the quarterback might actually pull that ball out and run around the end with it. Especially if the offensive line is having trouble moving anybody off the line of scrimmage (by the way, Addazio is also the offensive line coach).  Having John Brantley run the option sweep to the short side of the field, deep in your own end of the field on second and ten? You must be joking.

Here is my suggestion: immediately remove from the game plan any play that involves John Brantley carrying the ball by design. With all due respect to Brantley, that is not his forte. Opposing defenses pray for that kind of wasted effort, and that kind of opportunity. Why take a chance on getting your most experienced and potentially most-effective quarterback hurt?

During the telecast of Saturday's game, CBS commentator Gary Danielson said it best, "They're calling plays for the wrong quarterback."

I'll go a little further.  The playcalling stinks and the offensive line has under-performed. Both of those areas are the direct responsibility of Steve Addazio. I don't care if he ran the ship during Urban Meyer's leave of absence. I don't care if he has stood in for the Pope himself. Florida's two biggest weaknesses right now are his responsibility.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Week 5

I decided to try an experiment this week.  I am going to see how my picks compare with tossing a coin to select the winner.

I would like to think that my experience, my years of watching college football - both in person and on the tube - and my zillions of hours spent reading the self-serving drivel of alleged experts would help me be at least somewhat more accurate than a coin flip.

Let's find out...

#7 Florida at #1 Alabama - There are several keys to this game.  Has Florida's passing game progressed to the point that they can take advantage of a young Alabama secondary?  Can Florida slow down Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson and force Alabama to pass?  What Florida be effective using Trey Burton in his multi-position role?  And, lastly, how important is the fact that Florida's starting field goal kicker will miss the game with a back injury?  If it becomes a battle of field goals, you have to like the Tide's chances.  I think Florida will play well, and this should be a close, hard-hitting, entertaining game, but you have to like Alabama at home.  But don't be surprised if these two teams play each other again in Atlanta in December.

Quarter says:  Florida

Georgia at Colorado - This game is interesting if for no other reason than these are two teams that are absolutely, undeniably desperate for a win.  Georgia is 1-3, winless in the SEC.  Their only win is over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Bulldogs aren't in the top 29 in any statistical category.  They are 30th in rushing defense and net punting.  Then it goes downhill from there.  I don't think Mark Richt is really on the hot seat.  His record over the years is still pretty remarkable.  His real problem is that he can't beat Florida.  The Dawgs will get some help from wide receiver A.J. Green, who is returning from suspension.  Colorado is 2-1.  They have beaten Colorado State and Hawaii.  In between, they got demolished by California.  They are 7th in the nation in rushing defense.  They are not in the top 39 in any other statistical category.  Colorado probably would have canned Dan Hawkins after last year's 3-9 campaign, but the university couldn't afford the buyout on his contract.  When in doubt, pick the speed of the SEC, and the head coach who knows how to win on the road.  I'll take the Dawgs.

Quarter says:  Colorado

#9 Stanford at #4 Oregon - Stanford is 4th in the nation in scoring offense.  Oregon is 1st. But they have fattened up on the likes of New Mexico and Portland State (admit it, you didn't even know Portland State had a football team).  This game could be really entertaining.  It will definitely be a contrast of styles.  Stanford, under Jim Harbaugh, looks more like a Big 10 team.  They like to pound the ball to force the defense to cheat up to protect the line of scrimmage, and then have Andrew Luck toss the ball over their heads.  Oregon likes to spread the defense all over the field, and then run into the spaces.  The Ducks are favored here, but I think the Tree will do a better job on defense and get the win.

Quarter says:  Oregon

Upon Further Review (Week 4)

They May Bend But...

One thing we discovered Saturday was that Alabama's defense is still a work in progress.  In the first half against Arkansas, they were unable to establish a pass rush, and Ryan Mallett made them pay.  In the second half, the Tide dialed up the blitz, and Mallet started to look very average.  Then he began tossing passes to the guys in the other jerseys.   The Razorback offense that scored 17 points in the first half could manage only a field goal in the second half as the Tide caught up and then passed the punchless Hogs.

The lack of a pass rush has to be a concern - Alabama has just one sack in four games.  But, somehow, they still lead the nation in scoring defense.  Can Florida's still-developing passing attack stem the Tide?  We'll find out soon enough.

NBC and Notre Dame Are Both Losing

As I was cruising through the channels on Saturday - clicking back and forth between several games that were actually good, I stumbled briefly on the Notre Dame-Stanford game on NBC.  I don't remember what the score was at the time, but the Tree ended up winning 37-14, and the game wasn't even that close. 

During the fifteen seconds that I stopped on NBC to catch the score, I found myself wondering... does someone in South Bend have incriminating photos of Dick Ebersol?  Have they agreed to keep said pictures under wraps as long as NBC keeps renewing the contract that makes them the exclusive carrier of Notre Dame home games?  What else could explain the ridiculous decision to continue torturing the NBC audience (what little there is of it during Notre Dame games) and the college football world in general with such an inferior product?

When you look at Ebersol's credentials, you realize the man is responsible for some of the most amazing televised sporting events ever, so it can't be a lapse in his judgement, can it? 

Two years ago, when ESPN.com reported that Notre Dame and NBC had extended their contract through 2015, they noted that this was "despite the Fighting Irish last year drawing their lowest ratings since the network began broadcasting their games in 1991."  What are the odds that the audience grew during last year's tumultuous 6-6 swan song for Charlie Weis?  With the Irish off to a blazing 1-3 start this year, when I tuned in briefly, I may have doubled their viewing audience.  Assuming Ebersol is still watching.

Since 2000, Notre Dame has had four coaches, and compiled a very pedestrian 71-55 record.  Because they are Notre Dame, they have finagled invitations to three BCS bowl games in that time, and lost each of them.  Badly.  Oregon State whipped the Irish 41-9 in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl.  The closest game of the three was the 34-20 loss to Ohio State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  The following year they got pounded by LSU in the Sugar Bowl, 41-14. 

The same ESPN.com article quoted Ebersol as saying, "We go into this thinking that if the vast majority of the years has Notre Dame competitive in that top 10 or for that top 10 through the majority of the season, then we'll be very happy."

Dick, it's not 1949.  It's 2010.  The Irish haven't been great in a long time, and, right now, they're not even good.  What the heck are you thinking?

Great Offense? Or Bad Defense?

Call me skeptical.  Call me provincial.  Call me whatever you want.  But I need to see more from the Pac 10 before I start jumping on the conference bandwagon.  Stanford may be legit (if you ask me, they look more like a Big 10 team), but, once again, we are faced with the old Pac 10 quandary.  Are the offenses that good?  Or are the defenses that bad?

Consider Oregon's performance on Saturday.  Heading into the game, the Ducks were leading the nation in total defense and scoring defense, but yielded 597 yards and 31 points to Arizona State.  The Sun Devils scored 31 points on the Ducks despite the fact that they turned the ball over seven times.  Seven.  How many points would they have scored if they could have actually held on to the ball on a regular basis? Oregon prevailed 42-31, but the two teams combined for over 1000 yards of total offense.

Great offense?  Or bad defense?

In the season opener, and in a winning effort, USC still surrendered 36 points to Hawaii.  Nevada may still be scoring touchdowns on Cal.

I'm not sure what to think, but we'll find out more this Saturday when Stanford visits Oregon, and Arizona State visits Oregon State.