Sunday, September 28, 2008

Afterbirth (Week 5)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

What's the Deal with Week 5?

In the first month of the season, you knew something wasn’t quite right when Vanderbilt broke into the Top 25, and Wake Forest looked like the best team in the ACC. During those first four weeks, you hope you can start to get an idea which teams are genuinely good, and which teams are simply riding a worthless wave of media hype. And right when you think you’re starting to make sense of it all, Week 5 arrives. In Week 5 last year, five of the top ten teams lost. This year four of the top ten teams, and nine of the top twenty-five, lost. If I’m a coach at a major college, I’ve got to at least think about how to adjust my schedule to get a bye week in Week 5.

Badgers? We Don't Need No Stinking Badgers.

What does it take to revive bowl hopes in Ann Arbor? A vastly overrated Wisconsin team. After dominating the first half, and leading 19-0, the Badgers fell asleep in the locker room. Following the intermission, Michigan scored 27 unanswered points, and held on to win 27-25. Wisconsin’s next five games: Ohio State, Penn State, @ Iowa, Illinois, @ Michigan State. This is a team that will be 6-3 by the second week of November.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

I hate Miami, but you have to give them credit for two crushing blocks on the same punt return in their loss to North Carolina. Video below:



How About a Handoff?

It’s easy to sit on a barstool, beer in hand, and second guess some of the decisions made every weekend in the fall. I’ll admit it’s MUCH easier than being the guy making the decisions. Having said that, I couldn’t help but wonder why Louisville was passing the ball on 3rd and 7 from their own 40 yard line with 2:56 left in the game, and a one point lead. Connecticut quarterback Tyler Lorenzen had left the game with a broken foot, and the Huskies’ offense had been inconsistent. You’ve got to like your chances punting from near midfield, and that’s assuming a third down handoff wouldn’t have gotten the necessary first down yardage. Instead, Cardinal quarterback Hunter Cantwell threw an ugly pass into the flat that was intercepted and returned for the winning touchdown. Do you think Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe would like to have a do-over on that one?

Thanks for the 411. Now Piss Off.

I hate sportswriters. Talk about lemmings. How much propaganda did we have to read about USC before this season started, and right up until 11 o’clock Thursday night? After that, every writer in the country was scrambling to revise his previous assessment of the Trojan prowess. Now everyone wants to point out that USC has lost to Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State over the last three years. Oregon State twice. Why didn’t you tell us that before Thursday night?

Sportswriters are in on the same conference calls, and get the same information every week. They share their thoughts so that mistaken impressions get compounded. Rumor becomes idea. Idea becomes story. Story becomes fact. Then it gets crammed down our collective throats like it’s the gridiron gospel. It takes a hard worker and a sharp thinker to see things from a different angle. So what you tend to get is different versions of the same story. Unlike most people, I was not impressed with USC’s win over Virginia in Week 2, and I said so, right here.

I’m not always right. Far from it. But I’m right just about as often as the people who present themselves as experts. That’s something that should scare you. Especially when you think about how much you rely on media for information.

Friday, September 26, 2008

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#1 USC @ Oregon State
As noted in my previous entry, Oregon State has had some success against Southern California. The Beavers’ somewhat shocking 33-31 victory in 2006 stopped the Trojans’ 38 game regular season winning streak. While I’m normally not in favor of Trojan-busting, I’m all for it this year. Unfortunately, the Beavers don't appear to be capable of another shocker.

Connecticut @ Louisville
I’ve seen Louisville play once this year – in the opening loss to Kentucky - and their defense was downright offensive. It appears as if they've improved since then. They are 2nd in the nation against the run. Connecticut leads the Big East and ranks 6th in the nation in rushing offense. Something’s gotta give. The Huskies are 4-0 so far, but have struggled at times getting there. My gut feeling is to pick Connecticut, so I’m going to take the Cardinals at home in a squeaker.

Mississippi @ #4 Florida
In the last two games, Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead has thrown 6 interceptions and no touchdown passes. Florida is not the best team to play when you’re turnover prone – the Gators are tied for 2nd in the nation in turnover margin, and are the only team in the nation that has yet to lose a fumble or throw an interception. This year’s Gator squad is winning the battle of field position with solid defense and stellar special teams play. The Rebels are not bad, but not good enough to beat the Gators at home.

Tennessee @ #15 Auburn
The Gators slugged Tennessee 59-20 last year, but the Vols rebounded to pound Georgia and win the SEC’s East Division. The optimists in Knoxville (all three of them) are hoping this year’s squad can pull off a similar miracle after demoralizing losses to UCLA and, once again, Florida. Auburn is not particularly bad at anything, but not particularly good at anything either. My partly insane friend Ron thinks the Vols have a chance of pulling off an upset in Auburn. When he told me that, I thought briefly about the possibility, and quietly went to check his medicine cabinet to see if the anti-psychotic prescriptions had expired. Then I decided he might be right. The Vols need to regroup, and the loveliest village on the plains is just the place to do it.

#25 Fresno State @ UCLA
Statistically speaking, Fresno State and UCLA are not impressive. But every time I’ve watched the Bulldogs, they play a tough, physical style of ball, and I love that. Add that to the fact that I hate first year Bruin head coach Rick Nueheisel, and you get me picking Fresno State over the Teddy Bears.

#9 Wisconsin @ Michigan
Every time I pick a Wisconsin game, I try to mention that I think they are the most consistently over-rated team in college football. (Sorry, Bart). You know they are going to lose a game somewhere. But not this Saturday. The Badgers haven’t won a game in Ann Arbor since 1994. It’s time.

#24 TCU @ #2 Oklahoma
On paper, TCU looks like a very good team. Too bad they don’t play these games on paper. The Horned Frogs have beaten up the likes of New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and SMU. TCU has won the last two games in Norman, but that was in 2005 and 1996. It won’t be in 2008. I think TCU is a legitimately good team. I just think Oklahoma is a legitimately better team.

#8 Alabama @ #3 Georgia
Alabama has been one of the major surprises of this young season. Sort of. Nobody expected them to dominate Clemson the way they did in the opener. But their subsequent victories, while convincing, can’t be called surprising. Come on. We’re talking about Tulane, Western Kentucky and a lousy Arkansas team. The Tide is very much improved in Nick Saban’s second year, but not good enough to beat the Dawgs between the hedges.

#22 Illinois @ #12 Penn State
Believe it or not, Penn State has won 23 of the last 25 games in Happy Valley. When I have doubts, I always pick against the team coached by Ron Zook. And I have no doubts about this one. Papa Joe and Penn State win this one.

Colorado vs Florida State (Jacksonville)
Let me make this as clear as I can. I hate Florida State. Last week, I giggled like a school girl watching Wake Forest beat the ‘Noles for the third straight year. FSU quarterbacks combined for 5 interceptions against the Demon Decons. Unfortunately, the Seminoles seem to be decent on defense, and may keep the Buffs from scoring enough points to win.

Bonus Pick: Purdue over Notre Dame in South Bend

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

This Just In

Sources in Knoxville are saying Tennessee head coach Phillip Fulmer will step down at an 11 A.M. news conference tomorrow. Apparently he's going to take a job with FEMA due to his ability to evacuate 100,000 people in less than three hours.

JUST KIDDING! HAHAHAHAHA.......

Photobucket

Sorry coach. Couldn't resist.

Nope. Won't Go There. OK. Maybe I Will.

I’m no longer a sophomore in high school, so I’m trying desperately to avoid the obvious opportunity to make tasteless jokes about Thursday night’s college football game. The game itself is interesting enough, and the anticipation of it doesn’t need to be tainted with locker room humor. Obviously, USC has a lot on the line. It seems they’ve been pre-ordained as this year’s kings of college football. But Oregon State is one team that can claim some success over Southern California in recent years – having won 2 of the last 4 games in Corvallis, including a surprising 33-31 win in 2006.

Still, it’s the Trojans against the Beavers, and I’m having a hard time letting that fact slip past my adolescent fun meter. ;)

Monday, September 22, 2008

Afterbirth (Week 4)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

I Rock. 'Noles Suck

I would like to point out that I went 9-0 on my Crystal Ball picks last week. Wake Forest kicker Sam Swank almost made me regret giving him props. After hitting 18 field goals in a row, dating back to last season, he was 4 for 7 Saturday night against Florida State. Fortunately, the Demon Deacons needed only two of those field goals to beat the Seminoles. The mighty ‘Noles had seven turnovers in the game, and their quarterbacks combined to go 12 for 36 passing with 5 interceptions.

What is the World Coming to?

You know that the stars are re-aligning when Vanderbilt breaks into the AP Top 25. Do you remember the last time the Commodores were ranked? Of course you do. It was in 1984. The number one song on the Billboard charts was John Waite’s “Missing You.” It displaced “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” by Tina Turner. Vandy has started this season 4-0, something they have done only four times since the war. As in World War II. I think Bobby Johnson is a heckuva coach, and he has Vanderbilt playing about as well as they can be expected to play. The toughest part of their schedule is still ahead of them, but, for now, I enjoy every time I look at the polls and see “Vanderbilt.”

School of Hard Knox

Knoxville News Sentinel sports writer John Adams wrote a great COLUMN following Tennessee’s pathetic showing against Florida. Among the memorable quotes: “What does Florida's Brandon James have to do for UT to stop kicking him the ball? Score twice on one play?”

In the Chase for the Heisman

If you think the Heisman Trophy is all about putting up great numbers, consider the day that Missouri’s Chase Daniel had on Saturday. He attempted 43 passes, completing 36 of them for 439 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. But the really remarkable thing is that, at one point in the game, he completed 20 straight passes, a Big 12 conference record.

Speaking of Numbers

Florida’s Tim Tebow isn’t putting up numbers like he did last season. He hasn’t had to. Florida’s defense is much improved, and the coaching staff hasn’t flipped past the first few pages of the offensive playbook in wins over Hawaii, Miami and Tennessee. But I found this stat, and this quote, on ESPN.com "...Tebow's going to be there when the Gators need him. Even though it wasn't his best day against the Vols, he was 6-of-8 for 95 yards and two touchdowns on third down." Now that's impressive.

Can't Blame the Rats

I was thinking about this after seeing highlights of the Rutgers 23-21 loss to Navy, during which Scarlet Knight QB Mike Teel took a swing at one of his teammates in sheer frustration. I often wonder about coaches who change jobs like they change clothes, jumping at “better” opportunities like rats leaving a sinking ship, with an apparent lack of regard for their current institution. But, if I may add another outdated metaphor, you have to strike while the iron is hot in the coaching profession. Or you end up like Greg Schiano at Rutgers.

In 2006, Schiano coached his team to a remarkable 11-2 record after decades of football futility in Piscataway. Suddenly, everyone was impressed. Athletic directors at bigger and better programs were interested. Schiano, undoubtedly flattered by the attention, insisted he was committed to the State University of New Jersey. In appreciation, Rutgers granted him a contract extension. Then the Scarlet Knights stumbled through an 8-5 season last year. This season, they’ve started 0-3, including Saturday’s loss to Navy, and they haven’t played a Big East conference game yet. If Schiano didn’t have a contract holding him in place, you wonder if he could even get a job managing a Taco Bell in Hackensack.

I can think of two other coaches who probably should have jumped ship while they had the chance. Kirk Ferentz led Iowa to consecutive records of 11-2, 10-3 and 10-2 starting in 2002. Other major universities showed interest. The NFL showed interest. Ferentz stayed in Iowa City. Only to suffer through a 6-7 season in 2006 and a 6-6 record last year. Jeff Tedford caught the eye of the college football world when his California Bears upset USC in 2003. By 2006, he had coached his team to a 10-3 record, and a high profile to which they were unaccustomed. Last season, Cal started 5-0 but lost 6 of their last 7 before finishing with an Armed Services Bowl win over Air Force. This year they’ve started 2-1, but were physically dominated in an unexpected loss to Maryand (click here for evidence). Both of these guys could have commanded big bucks just a few years ago. Now, they might be lucky to keep the jobs they have. So, when the rats jump ship for a bigger and better one, who can blame them? The ship they’re on now may start sinking in a year or two.

Look. Up in the Sky. It's a Bird. It's a Plane. No. It's a Scoreboard

For some unfathomable reason, Arkansas defensive end Damario Ambrose (#58) started spouting trash to Alabama’s John Parker Wilson on Saturday. This despite the fact that the Razorbacks trailed 42-7 at the time. I mean, what could he possibly have said? Only John Parker Wilson knows. But the Tide quarterback did the best thing a mature senior leader could do. He reminded Ambrose that there was a scoreboard at the end of the field displaying the numeric representation of a complete ass-kicking.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#21 West Virginia @ Colorado
Colorado is still rebuilding under Dan Hawkins. West Virginia is still wondering what happened against East Carolina. My gut feeling is to go with the Mountaineers. But my gut feelings have been all wrong lately. The Buffs win a close one.

Iowa @ Pittsburgh
This game features two teams that missed out on bowls last year, and two schools whose alumni have come to expect them. Pittsburgh is still trying to recover from the season-opening loss to Bowling Green. If the Panthers lose this one, Dave Wannstedt may find for-sale signs planted on his front lawn.

#9 Alabama @ Arkansas
The Tide seems much improved in Nick Saban’s second year. The Hogs have struggled with Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Roll Tide.

Arizona @ UCLA
Two weeks ago, this looked like a key early game in the Pac 10 race. Then Arizona lost to New Mexico, and UCLA got destroyed by BYU. UCLA is dead last in the nation in rushing offense. That’s right, 119th. And Arizona has a decent passing attack. Arizona wins this one.

#4 Florida @ Tennessee
Phil Fulmer is 142-34 against the rest of college football, and 5-11 against Florida. Of course, it didn’t help that the Gators were coached by a guy named Spurrier for 12 years. Now they’re coached by a guy named Meyer who is 3-0 against the Vols in his short tenure in Gainesville. The Gator defense is improved. The offense is improving. Tennessee seemed very ordinary in the loss to UCLA. Who are the playmakers on that squad? Look for the Vols to keep it interesting for a while, but expect a Gator victory.

Miami @ Texas A&M
The Aggies opened the season with a home loss to Arkansas State, followed by an unimpressive win over New Mexico. How bad are they? Miami’s offense still needs work, but the defense is excellent. This one won’t be close. Just remember, you can’t spell scum without UM.

#18 Wake Forest @ #24 Florida State
I should be honest here. I hate Florida State. If Adolph Hitler and his boys came back to life for a day and played the ‘Noles, I’d root for the Nazis. St. Bobby is getting some pretty good quarterback play from Christian Ponder. But Wake Forest has won two straight over Florida State, including an extremely enjoyable 30-0 pounding in Tallahassee in 2006. Wake Forest plays with discipline, and they make few mistakes. Unless Florida State. Demon Deacon QB Riley Skinner is now officially the most accurate passer in the history of the Atlantic Coast Conference. And you gotta like any team with a kicker named Sam Swank.

#6 LSU @ #10 Auburn
These are two offenses that haven’t gelled, but two very good defenses. When these two teams meet, it is typically a low scoring affair. LSU is 5th in the nation in rushing defense. Auburn is 9th. Eleven of the last eighteen games in this series have been decided by seven points or less. Something’s gotta give. Something tells me the Tigers will win. Haha! Just kidding. The LSU Tigers.

#3 Georgia @ Arizona State
The Sun Devils started this season looking for respect. Then they lost to UNLV. So now they’re just trying to save face. Georgia is the wrong team to play when you’re in search of redemption. The Dawgs have a remarkable road record under Mark Richt, 26-4 to be exact. Soon to be 27-4.