My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Week 4

Back by popular demand, it's My Crystal Ball.  Thanks to those who e-mailed me at illegalprocedureblog@gmail.com and told me I was a slacker for not doing it for the first three weeks.

Look, I've known for a while that I was a slacker, so it wasn't really necessary for you to tell me that.  Many times.  Really.

Honestly, though, to present these picks the way I like to takes a lot of homework - looking at various sources to gather information and maybe dig up that tell-tale stat.  And, after all that,  I am wrong a third of the time anyway!

But that's one of the reasons I love college football - it's often unpredictable, and, as I have argued many times, almost anything can happen on any given Saturday.  This is one of the reasons I have argued against a college football playoff.  As ESPN says: Every Game Matters.

Now that we've established that, let's look at a few of this week's games that matter...

I think it is safe to argue that today's most important game among the alleged major programs is:

Georgia (1-2) at Mississippi State (1-2):  This is a must-win game for Georgia.  They began the SEC schedule with a road loss to South Carolina, and lost a close loss at home last week to Arkansas.  Starting 0-3 in league play would be a disaster. At that point, you start thinking about bribing someone on the Independence Bowl selection committee.  Oh wait, Georgia was just there last year.

I expected Mississippi State to be the most improved team in the league in the second year under Dan Mullen.  And they may be, but it hasn't translated into victories.  Of course, they have a lot to improve upon.  Georgia hasn't lost three straight games since 1990.  Normally, I'd take Mississippi State at home, but the Dawgs in red and black need a win badly.

#24 Oregon State (1-1) at #3 Boise State (2-0):  Regular readers will know how I feel about Boise State.  They are not a fluke.  Their offense is multi-dimensional and unpredictable.  They have one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Kellen Moore.  Their defense is fast and physical.  They have veterans everywhere on both sides of the ball.  Let's be honest - would you want your favorite team to pay a visit to Boise next week? If you said Yes, you'd better check real quick to see if your pants are on fire.  Oregon State is a solid team, but they have inexperience at the quarterback position, and the Rodgers Brothers are not enough to beat the Broncos at home.

#1 Alabama (3-0) at #10 Arkansas (3-0):  It's tempting to believe that the Tide may be vulnerable on the road, and I've been hearing for several days now how tough it is to play in Reynolds Stadium.  I've been there.  It's very nice.  But I'm not buying into the crowd noise thing.  When you play in the SEC, that is normal.  It's something you deal with regularly.  So, no offense Razorback fans, but take your alleged roar and stuff it.  Here's the key to this game - Arkansas is basically one dimensional.  They are 3rd in the nation in passing, but 98th in rushing.  Alabama is in the top 20 in both of those categories.  That balance will be the difference.  Roll Tide.


Best of luck to the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference as they try to put fans in the seats or get anybody at all interested in today's games.  The schedule:  Illinois is off, Indiana hosts Akron, Iowa hosts Ball State, Michigan hosts Bowling Green, Michigan State hosts Northern Colorado, Minnesota hosts Northern Illinois, Northwestern hosts Central Michigan, Ohio State hosts Eastern Michigan, Penn State hosts Temple, Purdue hosts Toledo, and Wisconsin hosts Austin Peay.  Let's go Peay!


Late Note:  The guest picker on ESPN GameDay is former US Olympic ski racer Picabo Street.  She may possess the second greatest name in sports, behind former NASCAR driver Dick Trickle.

Upon Further Review (Week 2)

I hate sportswriters and broadcasters.  Really.  This week in college football gives us the perfect example why.

Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison.  The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies.  Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.

First of all... As I have discussed before, transitivity doesn't apply in college football. The fact that Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C doesn't mean that Team A can beat Team C. 

Let me give you an example.  In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener.   Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College.  If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?

To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion?  None?  Obviously.  But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.

This is where things get tricky.  Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day.  By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen.  That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."

Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility.  Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years.  Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12?  I don't know.  Nobody knows.  But they sure hold up now.

The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19.  If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008.  If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003.  That same year, they beat BYU in Provo.  In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma.  They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009.  What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?

Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night.  I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year.  Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high.  If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.

I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison.  Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.

But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them.  Let's not take anything away from them either.