My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Week 4

Back by popular demand, it's My Crystal Ball.  Thanks to those who e-mailed me at illegalprocedureblog@gmail.com and told me I was a slacker for not doing it for the first three weeks.

Look, I've known for a while that I was a slacker, so it wasn't really necessary for you to tell me that.  Many times.  Really.

Honestly, though, to present these picks the way I like to takes a lot of homework - looking at various sources to gather information and maybe dig up that tell-tale stat.  And, after all that,  I am wrong a third of the time anyway!

But that's one of the reasons I love college football - it's often unpredictable, and, as I have argued many times, almost anything can happen on any given Saturday.  This is one of the reasons I have argued against a college football playoff.  As ESPN says: Every Game Matters.

Now that we've established that, let's look at a few of this week's games that matter...

I think it is safe to argue that today's most important game among the alleged major programs is:

Georgia (1-2) at Mississippi State (1-2):  This is a must-win game for Georgia.  They began the SEC schedule with a road loss to South Carolina, and lost a close loss at home last week to Arkansas.  Starting 0-3 in league play would be a disaster. At that point, you start thinking about bribing someone on the Independence Bowl selection committee.  Oh wait, Georgia was just there last year.

I expected Mississippi State to be the most improved team in the league in the second year under Dan Mullen.  And they may be, but it hasn't translated into victories.  Of course, they have a lot to improve upon.  Georgia hasn't lost three straight games since 1990.  Normally, I'd take Mississippi State at home, but the Dawgs in red and black need a win badly.

#24 Oregon State (1-1) at #3 Boise State (2-0):  Regular readers will know how I feel about Boise State.  They are not a fluke.  Their offense is multi-dimensional and unpredictable.  They have one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Kellen Moore.  Their defense is fast and physical.  They have veterans everywhere on both sides of the ball.  Let's be honest - would you want your favorite team to pay a visit to Boise next week? If you said Yes, you'd better check real quick to see if your pants are on fire.  Oregon State is a solid team, but they have inexperience at the quarterback position, and the Rodgers Brothers are not enough to beat the Broncos at home.

#1 Alabama (3-0) at #10 Arkansas (3-0):  It's tempting to believe that the Tide may be vulnerable on the road, and I've been hearing for several days now how tough it is to play in Reynolds Stadium.  I've been there.  It's very nice.  But I'm not buying into the crowd noise thing.  When you play in the SEC, that is normal.  It's something you deal with regularly.  So, no offense Razorback fans, but take your alleged roar and stuff it.  Here's the key to this game - Arkansas is basically one dimensional.  They are 3rd in the nation in passing, but 98th in rushing.  Alabama is in the top 20 in both of those categories.  That balance will be the difference.  Roll Tide.


Best of luck to the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference as they try to put fans in the seats or get anybody at all interested in today's games.  The schedule:  Illinois is off, Indiana hosts Akron, Iowa hosts Ball State, Michigan hosts Bowling Green, Michigan State hosts Northern Colorado, Minnesota hosts Northern Illinois, Northwestern hosts Central Michigan, Ohio State hosts Eastern Michigan, Penn State hosts Temple, Purdue hosts Toledo, and Wisconsin hosts Austin Peay.  Let's go Peay!


Late Note:  The guest picker on ESPN GameDay is former US Olympic ski racer Picabo Street.  She may possess the second greatest name in sports, behind former NASCAR driver Dick Trickle.

Upon Further Review (Week 2)

I hate sportswriters and broadcasters.  Really.  This week in college football gives us the perfect example why.

Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison.  The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies.  Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.

First of all... As I have discussed before, transitivity doesn't apply in college football. The fact that Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C doesn't mean that Team A can beat Team C. 

Let me give you an example.  In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener.   Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College.  If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?

To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion?  None?  Obviously.  But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.

This is where things get tricky.  Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day.  By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen.  That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."

Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility.  Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years.  Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12?  I don't know.  Nobody knows.  But they sure hold up now.

The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19.  If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008.  If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003.  That same year, they beat BYU in Provo.  In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma.  They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009.  What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?

Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night.  I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year.  Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high.  If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.

I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison.  Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.

But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them.  Let's not take anything away from them either.

Upon Further Review (Week 1)

Bronco Bandwagon

I have told you this before, but, in case you forgot, I'm officially on the wagon.  That's right.  The Boise State bandwagon. 

If you're one of those casual fans that vaguely remembers the Boise State win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, you probably think the Broncos are just a collection of gimmicks and trickery.  Well, think again.

[At this point, I am inserting the obligatory photo that includes Erin Andrews because, well, why wouldn't we want to include Erin Andrews?]

Anyway...

One game into their fifth season under head coach Chris Petersen, the Broncos have compiled a 50-4 record, including unbeaten seasons in 2006 and last year.  That's not trickery.  That's absolutely amazing.

Speaking of amazing, I was trying to resist the temptation to include this photo of a couple of Boise State cheerleaders, and then I thought, why resist?

Monday's victory over Virginia Tech was no fluke.  Boise State dominated early, weathered a furious rally by a very talented Hokie squad, and, at a time when a lesser team might have folded under the pressure, scored the winning touchdown on their last possession.

All of this, mind you, was in front of a very pro-Hokie crowd at the ostensibly neutral site in Landover, Maryland. 

This Boise State team could play with anybody in the country.  And we'd better get used to the idea.  They don't win with smoke and mirrors.  They win with talent and guts.


I'm not convinced that I can watch too many games on the Smurf Turf without damaging my eyesight. But I'll be watching anyway. These Broncos have definitely gotten my attention.

Random Stat:  Virginia Tech is now 0-22 in games away from home against top 5 teams.

Week 1 Surprises

This past Saturday brought us some interesting results. 

Oklahoma managed to beat Utah State, but only by a mere seven points.  Florida beat Miami of Ohio 34-12, but couldn't consistently get the shotgun snap into the hands of the quarterback. USC beat Hawaii, but saw their defense get shredded in a 49-36 shootout.

But there were two games that were particularly shocking: the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 49-48 upset of Mississippi,and the North Dakota State Bison's 6-3 win at Kansas.

Everything I have ever heard or read about Turner Gill tells me that he is a good guy. At Buffalo in 2006, he took over coaching a team that had gone 5-41 in its four previous seasons.  In his first three years, he went 2-10, 5-7 and then 8-6 in 2008, including an upset of previously unbeaten Ball State in the MAC Championship game.  That's about as good as you'll ever get at Buffalo, so it wasn't surprising when Kansas came calling last year after Mark Mangino was forced to resign amidst allegations that he verbally and physically abused some of his players. 

But it's clear that Gill has his hands full with the rebuilding job in Lawrence. 

The Kids Are Alright

Chris Low, the SEC beat writer for ESPN.com, pointed out some conference schools played lots of youngsters on Saturday.  But Florida, as it turns out, played more freshman (15, to be exact) than any other school in the country.  There is lots of talent in that locker room, but with so much youth on the field, the Gators may look a bit rough around the edges at times.

Another Bandwagon

I've been thinking about it - had time to think now that the college football season is over - and I am jumping on another bandwagon.  In the entry below this one, I wrote about Boise State.  I have nothing but admiration for the way they play the game.  So I've decided to be a Broncos fan.

If you read the previous entry, and did not click on the link for the Three Plays That Shocked the World, I urge you to watch it here.  Broncos offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin explains each of the three key plays from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  It is entertaining and enlightening as well.

Upon Further Further Review (Bowls - Part II)

More Than Just Turf to Repair

Someone should be fired. Somewhere, there is an idiot, or group of idiots, responsible for the field conditions at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

I don't know much about planting things or growing things. I've had fake office plants shrivel up and die on me. But I'm reasonably certain that I could have kept the Citrus Bowl turf in better condition than it was for the Champs Sports Bowl and the Capital One Bowl.

Nobody should have to play a football game on terrain more suited for trench warfare.

It is not safe for the athletes, and, in this case, I think it may have affected the outcome.  Is it just a coincidence that the slower, plodding teams won both of the games played there?  Would Wisconsin have beaten Miami on a pristine field?  Maybe.  Could Penn State have kept up with LSU?  I doubt it.

After the game, LSU reciever Brandon LaFell said, "That was by far the worst football field I've ever seen in my life."

Now the city of Orlando has more than just turf to repair.  The image of a vacation mecca is certainly damaged too.  At least for fans of the four teams that had to watch the turf peel away in clumps.  This is a city that knows how to do amusement parks, but athletic fields are another matter entirely.

Broncos Bucking the System

After finishing the season unbeaten for the second time since 2006, Boise State now appears ready to muscle their way to the front of the line in college football.  They should start next season in or near the top five in the preseason polls, which gives them a chance to climb higher if teams in front of them stumble.

Here's the scary part, they return 21 starters from this year's squad, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who finished second in the nation in passing efficiency.

They are doing everything they can to bolster their schedule. The perception is that the WAC doesn't offer them enough competition, even though Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State went to bowl games this year.

Boise State opened the 2009 season by dominating eventual PAC 10 champion Oregon, and ended it by defeating unbeaten Mountain West champion TCU.  In 2010, they will play Oregon State at home on the famous Smurf Turf, and Virginia Tech in a (sort of) neutral site game at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.

But, now, the big boys are a bit squeamish about scheduling a game with the Broncos.  They have a reputation for playing with reckless abandon that makes their opponents nervous. 

In the 17-10 win over TCU, the key play was an amazing fake punt that Boise State ran on a 4th and 9 from their own 33 yard line.  The play gained 30 yeards.  Gutsy?  Absolutely.  Typical of Bronco football?  Without a doubt.

Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl has rapidly become the Woodstock of college football.  If as many people actually saw it as are now claiming to have seen it, the broadcast would have had about a 50 rating.

The Three Plays That Shocked the World - the Hook and Ladder on 4th and 18 from midfield that went for a touchdown to send it to overtime, the halfback pass for the overtime touchdown, and the Statue of Liberty on the two point conversion that won the game  - captured the attention of the football-loving world. 

Boise State coach Chris Petersen says, "I think that's what they expect out of us, and we're happy to deliver."

The drama even had a storybook ending when Ian Johnson, who had just run in the two point conversion for the 43-42 win, then scurried off to find his cheerleader girlfriend to ask her to marry him.

Now that opponents have come to expect the unexpected, they still can't stop it.  As Matt James notes in the Fresno Bee, "Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever."

Just ask TCU coach Gary Patterson, who admitted that his team had worked on stopping the fake punt in practice, but failed to do so with the game on the line, "The fake punt was a great call," he said.  "They outcoached us on that play."

Bronco kicker Kyle Brotzman, who threw the pass on the play, had a simpler explanation.  "That's Boise State football," he said.

Next season is likely to bring increased media scrutiny for the Broncos, and more pressure.  But, after going 14-0 this year, and 49-4 since 2006, they might be ready to assume a position among the college football elite.  One thing is certain, if the next BCS game they play in is the championship game, expect the unexpected.