When Numbers Lie

Always be cautious with the way you interpret and apply statistics.  Somewhere, there is a set of numbers that, when manipulated and presented in a certain way, can be used to support almost any argument.

I used to wonder about that when I saw those old commercials that said 9 out of 10 dentists surveyed recommend such and such a chewing gum.  Even then, I thought, exactly how was that question phrased?

Dear Dentist:  Which are you more inclined to recommend for your patients?  (A)  Chewing Dentyne, or (B) Chewing a mouthful of greasy gravel from an old railroad bed.

It does make you wonder about the 1 out of 10 that chose greasy gravel.  I'm guessing that most of them were from Tennessee. 

And the rest were probably from Georgia.

But, anyway...

I thought about the use of statistics when I read Pat Forde's latest column on ESPN.com.  I actually like Pat Forde.  Sometimes.  But, in support of his inclination to believe Wisconsin can be a contender in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference, he threw out the following stat: 

When Wisconsin's line clicks, it wins: the Badgers were 10-0 when rushing for more than 150 yards last year and 0-3 when rushing for less; and they were 9-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks and 1-3 when allowing three or more.

On the  surface, that sounds fairly impressive.  It almost makes you want to believe in Wisconsin. But let's look a little deeper, shall we?

Let's consider the regular season (bowl game stats are often screwy).  Wisconsin was 9-3.  As Forde points out, in each of the the nine wins, they had 150 or more yards rushing.  In each of the three losses, they had less than 150 (118, 87 and 99 respectively).

Let's consider the opponents.  In the nine wins, the Badgers beat Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Hawaii.  In the three losses, they choked against Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. 

Northwestern didn't exactly have a great defense, but Wisconsin fell behind early, and, I think, got away from their game plan in a 33-31 loss.

Forde's Translation: The Badgers have a great offensive line that makes them a potential force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

Even as he praises Wisconsin, he does go on to tell us that, against Ohio State and Iowa - their two best opponents last year - the Badgers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and gave up 10 sacks.

Forde's Translation: If their admittedly mammoth and allegedly great offensive line can improve on last year's performance in those big games, they have the potential to be a force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

So, as we enter this sure-to-be-terrific college football season, I urge you to remember that numbers lie.  Sometimes.  Unless you read them in one of my columns, in which case, they represent the absolute truth.

This column was brought to you by Dos Equis.




Although, I must admit I was rather disappointed when I found out that I was not the most interesting man in the world...

PS: Apologies in advance to my friend Bart - a longtime Badger fan - and his lovely wife Suzy, who may or may not ever speak to me again.

Upon Further Further Review (Bowls - Part II)

More Than Just Turf to Repair

Someone should be fired. Somewhere, there is an idiot, or group of idiots, responsible for the field conditions at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

I don't know much about planting things or growing things. I've had fake office plants shrivel up and die on me. But I'm reasonably certain that I could have kept the Citrus Bowl turf in better condition than it was for the Champs Sports Bowl and the Capital One Bowl.

Nobody should have to play a football game on terrain more suited for trench warfare.

It is not safe for the athletes, and, in this case, I think it may have affected the outcome.  Is it just a coincidence that the slower, plodding teams won both of the games played there?  Would Wisconsin have beaten Miami on a pristine field?  Maybe.  Could Penn State have kept up with LSU?  I doubt it.

After the game, LSU reciever Brandon LaFell said, "That was by far the worst football field I've ever seen in my life."

Now the city of Orlando has more than just turf to repair.  The image of a vacation mecca is certainly damaged too.  At least for fans of the four teams that had to watch the turf peel away in clumps.  This is a city that knows how to do amusement parks, but athletic fields are another matter entirely.

Broncos Bucking the System

After finishing the season unbeaten for the second time since 2006, Boise State now appears ready to muscle their way to the front of the line in college football.  They should start next season in or near the top five in the preseason polls, which gives them a chance to climb higher if teams in front of them stumble.

Here's the scary part, they return 21 starters from this year's squad, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who finished second in the nation in passing efficiency.

They are doing everything they can to bolster their schedule. The perception is that the WAC doesn't offer them enough competition, even though Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State went to bowl games this year.

Boise State opened the 2009 season by dominating eventual PAC 10 champion Oregon, and ended it by defeating unbeaten Mountain West champion TCU.  In 2010, they will play Oregon State at home on the famous Smurf Turf, and Virginia Tech in a (sort of) neutral site game at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.

But, now, the big boys are a bit squeamish about scheduling a game with the Broncos.  They have a reputation for playing with reckless abandon that makes their opponents nervous. 

In the 17-10 win over TCU, the key play was an amazing fake punt that Boise State ran on a 4th and 9 from their own 33 yard line.  The play gained 30 yeards.  Gutsy?  Absolutely.  Typical of Bronco football?  Without a doubt.

Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl has rapidly become the Woodstock of college football.  If as many people actually saw it as are now claiming to have seen it, the broadcast would have had about a 50 rating.

The Three Plays That Shocked the World - the Hook and Ladder on 4th and 18 from midfield that went for a touchdown to send it to overtime, the halfback pass for the overtime touchdown, and the Statue of Liberty on the two point conversion that won the game  - captured the attention of the football-loving world. 

Boise State coach Chris Petersen says, "I think that's what they expect out of us, and we're happy to deliver."

The drama even had a storybook ending when Ian Johnson, who had just run in the two point conversion for the 43-42 win, then scurried off to find his cheerleader girlfriend to ask her to marry him.

Now that opponents have come to expect the unexpected, they still can't stop it.  As Matt James notes in the Fresno Bee, "Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever."

Just ask TCU coach Gary Patterson, who admitted that his team had worked on stopping the fake punt in practice, but failed to do so with the game on the line, "The fake punt was a great call," he said.  "They outcoached us on that play."

Bronco kicker Kyle Brotzman, who threw the pass on the play, had a simpler explanation.  "That's Boise State football," he said.

Next season is likely to bring increased media scrutiny for the Broncos, and more pressure.  But, after going 14-0 this year, and 49-4 since 2006, they might be ready to assume a position among the college football elite.  One thing is certain, if the next BCS game they play in is the championship game, expect the unexpected.