When Numbers Lie

Always be cautious with the way you interpret and apply statistics.  Somewhere, there is a set of numbers that, when manipulated and presented in a certain way, can be used to support almost any argument.

I used to wonder about that when I saw those old commercials that said 9 out of 10 dentists surveyed recommend such and such a chewing gum.  Even then, I thought, exactly how was that question phrased?

Dear Dentist:  Which are you more inclined to recommend for your patients?  (A)  Chewing Dentyne, or (B) Chewing a mouthful of greasy gravel from an old railroad bed.

It does make you wonder about the 1 out of 10 that chose greasy gravel.  I'm guessing that most of them were from Tennessee. 

And the rest were probably from Georgia.

But, anyway...

I thought about the use of statistics when I read Pat Forde's latest column on ESPN.com.  I actually like Pat Forde.  Sometimes.  But, in support of his inclination to believe Wisconsin can be a contender in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference, he threw out the following stat: 

When Wisconsin's line clicks, it wins: the Badgers were 10-0 when rushing for more than 150 yards last year and 0-3 when rushing for less; and they were 9-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks and 1-3 when allowing three or more.

On the  surface, that sounds fairly impressive.  It almost makes you want to believe in Wisconsin. But let's look a little deeper, shall we?

Let's consider the regular season (bowl game stats are often screwy).  Wisconsin was 9-3.  As Forde points out, in each of the the nine wins, they had 150 or more yards rushing.  In each of the three losses, they had less than 150 (118, 87 and 99 respectively).

Let's consider the opponents.  In the nine wins, the Badgers beat Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Hawaii.  In the three losses, they choked against Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. 

Northwestern didn't exactly have a great defense, but Wisconsin fell behind early, and, I think, got away from their game plan in a 33-31 loss.

Forde's Translation: The Badgers have a great offensive line that makes them a potential force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

Even as he praises Wisconsin, he does go on to tell us that, against Ohio State and Iowa - their two best opponents last year - the Badgers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and gave up 10 sacks.

Forde's Translation: If their admittedly mammoth and allegedly great offensive line can improve on last year's performance in those big games, they have the potential to be a force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

So, as we enter this sure-to-be-terrific college football season, I urge you to remember that numbers lie.  Sometimes.  Unless you read them in one of my columns, in which case, they represent the absolute truth.

This column was brought to you by Dos Equis.




Although, I must admit I was rather disappointed when I found out that I was not the most interesting man in the world...

PS: Apologies in advance to my friend Bart - a longtime Badger fan - and his lovely wife Suzy, who may or may not ever speak to me again.

Upon Further Review (Week 11)

Surrender. On Two. Ready. Break.

Some folks in Big Ten country want us to believe that Saturday's game between Iowa and Ohio State
proved that the Buckeyes are a worthy conference champion, and the Hawkeyes deserve an at-large BCS bowl bid.

I guess the Big Ten has to have some sort of champion.  I don't know why they expect the rest of the college football world to care about a league that still hasn't figured out how many teams belong to it.

But an at-large BCS bid for Iowa?  Seriously?

Saturday's game was a 27-24 affair, decided in overtime.  While it sounds like it should have been exciting, it was most noteworthy for the fact that, once the score was tied at 24 late in regulation, neither team made a serious attempt to win.

Given the ball on their own 18 yard line with 2:37 remaining, Buckeye coach Jim Tressel managed to run five plays - three of them handoffs - to gain a grand total of 13 yards before punting to Iowa.

Then, Iowa, after fielding the punt, had the ball at their own 33 yard line with 52 seconds and two timeouts remaining.  With a great opportunity to try to get into position for a game-winning field goal, Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz decided to run out the clock and hope for the best in overtime.

This was two teams playing not to lose.  And it was truly pathetic.

Midwest football is about as exciting as boiled cabbage anyway, but this display of mediocrity prompted CBS Sports.com writer Gregg Doyel to suggest that the Big Ten banner should be a white flag.

Ohio State, by virtue of winning the league, will stumble into the Rose Bowl, and probably lose badly to whatever Pac 10 opponent they face.  But do we really need to reward this Iowa team with a BCS bowl berth?

Let's examine their resume.

They beat Arizona 27-17 in Iowa City on September 19. 

It seemed like a good win at the time.  But the Wildcats are now 6-3, and they end the season with Oregon, at Arizona State and at USC.  That looks like a 7-5 finish to me.  Maybe.

The following week, Iowa beat Penn State 21-10 in Happy Valley. 

Again, it seemed like a good win at the time.  But let's tell it like it is.  Joe Paterno has been a class act for his entire coaching career.  He has kept the Penn State football program mostly clean while achieving frequent success on the field.  In my view, he has earned the right to coach there until giant, hairy cockroaches take over the Earth, if that's what he chooses to do.  But that doesn't, in any way, mean that this year's Penn State squad is good.  Their most impressive win is over Temple.  The Owls.

On October 17, the Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin. 

They are a very respectable 8-2, but, upon closer examination, they lost to the only two ranked opponents they played.  Translation: the Badgers are great in games that don't matter.

Otherwise, Iowa struggled with the likes of Northern Iowa (a 17-16 win) and Arkansas State (a 24-21 win).

So that brings us back to Saturday's game in Columbus.  In a tie game, with the league title and its associated Rose Bowl berth on the line, Kirk Ferentz ordered his team to cower in the huddle and then take a knee.

In what was possibly the most appropriate ending for such a display of gutlessness, Iowa managed to lose 16 yards on their first three plays in overtime, and throw an interception on 4th and 26.

Ohio State took over and ran the ball three times, gaining three entire yards, before trotting the kicker on to the field for the game winner.

So Ohio State (9-2), with a game remaining at Michigan, managed to back into a Rose Bowl.  And Iowa (9-2), with one game remaining against Minnesota, may have backed into a Fiesta Bowl simply by being the second least courageous team in the Big Ten.

It doesn't seem quite right.

There's a little part of me, though, that wants to see Iowa in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State (10-0) - the scenario that seems most likely right now. 

At least the Hawkeyes would find out what it's like to face a team that always plays to win.

Bulls in September. Puppies Afterward.

 South Florida coach Jim Leavitt has a problem.  He needs to find a way to make his players understand that the season lasts all the way through November.  His teams have gained national recognition with fast starts, but also gained a reputation for slow finishes.

Since 2007, the Bulls are 13-0 in games played in September, but 11-13 in the rest of their games, including 6-10 in the month of October.  And it's not because they've played nothing but patsies early in the year.

On Septmber 8, 2007, they won 26-23 at Auburn.  On September 12 of last year, they beat a highly-regarded Kansas team in Tampa 37-34.  This year, they beat Florida State 17-7 in Tallahassee on September 26. 

But, after starting the season 5-0, they've now lost three of their last four, and Thursday's game against Rutgers was one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a college football team.

The Bulls (6-3) managed only 159 yards of total offense in the game, had four turnovers, and were totally overwhelmed by a Scarlet Knights team that really doesn't have many stars.

Afterward, Leavitt said, "They just beat the dog out of us."

With remaining games against Louisville, Miami, and at Connecticut, the Bulls are hoping there's at least a little dog left.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#25 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati - Like many college football fans, particularly those in SEC country, I am inclined to view any team from the league we jokingly call the Big Least as just another pretender.  West Virginia (7-2) has a good running back in Noel Devine, but he sprained his ankle when the Mountaineers nipped Louisville 17-9 last week.  Quarterback Jarrett Brown sprained his ankle too.  That's not good news for a team that is 7-2, but hasn't managed to beat anybody that is actually good.  It's hard to know what to think about Cincinnati (9-0).  They are off to their best start since 1951, when they won nine straight games before losing to Xavier.  I hate to get into comparative scores, but, this year, they hit the road and beat the same Oregon State team that has now beaten Stanford and Cal. Regular readers of this blog will know that I am a Mardy Gilyard fan, not just because he's a great receiver, but because, last year,  he made one of the kindest gestures I've ever seen in a college football game.  Here's the thing that really intrigues me.  Quarterback Tony Pike opened the year putting up great numbers (128 of 199 passing for 1633 yards with 15 TD's and 3 INT's).  Then he gets hurt, and sophomore Zach Collaros takes over and does even better (76 of 100 passing for 1229 yards with 10 TD's and 1 INT).  That's truly remarkable.  The Bearcats will win.  Not necessarily because they are great, but because they are playing the Mountaineers.  Another pretender from the Big Least.

 
#10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State - People in Big Ten country still believe that Iowa (9-1) has a chance of being an at-large BCS team after they lose to Ohio State (8-2).  And they will lose to Ohio State, so that's not really the issue here.  What concerns me is that a state that is well-known for the importance of its early primaries in presidential elections contains so many people who are apparently insane.  The Hawkeyes managed to win their first nine games, but they barely scraped by so often that the question wasn't if they would lose, but when.  In last week's loss to Northwestern, quarterback Ricky Stanzi injured his ankle badly enough that it required surgery.  You might think that other stars on the team would pick up the slack, but they don't have any.  So we're left with an Ohio State team that will clinch the Big Ten title Saturday when they beat Iowa.  They're not going to play for the national championship, but they'll be in the Rose Bowl against the winner of the Pac 10.  That's actually excellent news for Buckeyes fans who can comfort themselves with the knowledge that they won't have to sit through another beatdown at the hands of an SEC team. 
 
Stanford at #9 USC - I don't like USC (7-2), and I'm glad to see them suffering through a season in which they have sustained two losses.  So far.  Of course, there are many teams that would like to "suffer" through such a season.  The Trojans have won the last seven Pac 10 titles, but this year's crown is still up for grabs.  They've also won 47 of their last 48 games at home.  The lone loss in that stretch was Stanford's colossal upset in 2007, when they were 41 point underdogs.  Quarterback Matt Barkley is talented, but sometimes plays like the freshman that he is.  Last week at Arizona State, he completed just 7 of 22 passes, but the defense added a score on a pick six, and USC managed to win 14-9.  Despite what the alleged experts keep telling us, the defense isn't up to the usual standards either.  They are currently ranked 38th.  Among the defenses ranked ahead of them... Duke.  I'm not kidding.  Stanford (6-3), meanwhile, looks more like a Big Ten team of old than a Pac 10 patsy.  They have a strong offensive line, and a big, physical running back in the form of Toby Gerhart who is, rather quietly, the 2nd leading rusher in the nation.  Stanford also has Andy Luck, an effective passer with better than average escapability and a great name.  The alleged experts said Oregon couldn't just line up and run right through the Trojan defense two weeks ago.  But they did.  I think Stanford can do the same thing.  If they can avoid a letdown after last week's shootout win over Oregon, the Cardinal will prevail again.  Fear the Tree.
 
#16 Utah at #4 TCU - I've watched TCU (9-0) play a few times, and I'm convinced they are a well-coached team that can be competitive with anybody out there.  They have competent running backs, an efficient passer in Andy Dalton, and a defense that ranks 3rd behind Texas and Florida.  On top of that, Jeremy Kerley leads the Mountain West in kick returns and punt returns.  Utah (8-1) holds a 5-1 edge in the series, and managed to ambush TCU 13-10 in Salt Lake City last year, but, this season, they haven't been as impressive as the 2008 squad that also ambushed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Since losing at Oregon in September, they've won six straight, and won nine of their last ten road games, dating back to last season.  But they've also changed quarterbacks in mid-season, replacing struggling junior Terrance Cain with promising freshman Jordan Wynn.  With the conference championship and a BCS bowl berth at stake, I think the Horned Frogs win convincingly.
 
#1 Florida at South Carolina - Every good Florida fan knows that there is always reason to fear the old Head Ball Coach.  They remember all too well how South Carolina snuck up on the Gators, and scored a 30-22 win in Columbia in 2005, Urban Meyer's first year at Florida.  And Spurrier has said that he will take more control over the play-calling Saturday in an effort to jump start his offense.  They averaged just 12.3 points in the last four games, after averaging 27.3 in the first six.  Quarterback Stephen Garcia is sharp at times, but inexplicably bone-headed at other times.  They are still 19th in total defense, and should present a challenge for a Florida offense that is having a hard time making big plays.  But, likewise, Florida's 2nd ranked defense should stifle the Gamecocks.  Florida has already clinched the SEC's Eastern Division, and just needs to survive until the huge showdown with Alabama.  Rainy weather could be a factor, but that should favor Florida and their ground game.  When in doubt, I'll take any team with Superman at quarterback.  This is one that will make their fans nervous for a while, but the Gators will win.

This week, My Crystal Ball Says... was brought to you by Campbell's Primordial Soup - "With You Since the Very Beginning"

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Another Day, Another Gouge

It will be interesting to see how the college football world reacts to the news that eye gouging and dirty play isn't limited to someone named Brandon Spikes.

While reviewing video of a play during which a Florida State fumble was recovered by Clemson, someone on Tomahawk Nation.com, an FSU fan site, noticed that Tiger defensive end Andre Branch (#40 in orange in the video below) doing some gouging of his own on Seminole guard David Spurlock (#79 in white).

Watch carefully to the left of the fumble action...



For every alleged expert who claimed to be surprised and offended that such behavior occurs on the field, what are you going to say now?  Shouldn't you be just as surprised and offended at this?  Or does it only matter when it's one of the best defenders in the country on the nation's number one team?

I'm not saying this kind of thing is pretty, and I'm not saying it should be condoned, but if you are aren't willing to openly admit that it is relatively commonplace, you don't know the game well enough to have any credibility with me.

Let me ask you a question.  Do you think the plastic visors that some players fasten to their facemasks are there to help them see?

It only takes a few minutes of searching before you find examples like the video below.  It's Ohio State linebacker Curtis Terry (#55 in white) giving Florida's Tim Tebow a one-two punch before stepping on him.  All of this while Tebow is laying on the ground.  Why do you think Tebow wanted so badly to score that last touchdown in the BCS Championship Game after the 2006 season?



I assume the alleged experts will climb back on their high horses, and demand that Andre Branch be suspended.  And he should be.  For now, it's in the hands of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. 

But I hope they don't pretend that this is a sudden "rash" of bad behavior that was rare until recently.

One thing is certain.  When I watch college football on television this weekend, I will do so the way I have always done it.  With the sound turned down.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.


Florida State at Clemson - For last week's Homecoming game against NC State, 13,000 Florida State (4-4) fans showed their loyalty by coming to the game disguised as empty seats - their worst home crowd since 1993 - when, oh, by the way, they won a national championship. I can say it here because it's my blog. They are the worst fans ever. Ever. And it turned out to be an exciting game that illustrated what's wrong with FSU this year. They beat the Wolfpack 45-42, thus showing that they can score points in droves, but have a hard time stopping other teams from scoring. QB Christian Ponder has quietly become the 5th ranked passer in the nation in terms of completions per game. It's been hard to notice when their defense is ranked 109th. Meanwhile, Clemson (5-3) running back CJ Spiller has emerged as a Heisman Trophy candidate by doing everything except filling the Gatorade coolers. So, you might wonder how Florida State can beat Clemson in Death Valley. The answer is simple. They can't.

#16 Ohio State at #11 Penn State - This game is kind of flying under the radar now that each and every one of the three people who still think the Big Ten is a good football league is hot to trot for Iowa - the one team that hasn't lost a game, even though they keep trying. There are rumblings from the fans in Columbus that the coaching staff hasn't used their talent wisely, and hasn't developed the abilities of QB Terrelle Pryor. Despite the fact that Ohio State (7-2) hasn't beaten anybody good, they are still ranked 16th for some unknown reason, and can still win the Big Ten if they beat Penn State (8-1), and win the rest of their games. Uh huh. Right. Penn State is having a normal Joe Paterno kind of year. There is nothing at all flashy about them, but they pile up wins like I pile up laundry in my closet. Daryll Clark is a solid performer at quarterback, and their running game, led by Evan Royster, is productive. Still, I think you can argue that the Nittany Lions haven't beaten anybody good either. Iowa (if you want to say they are good) came to town and dominated every aspect of the game in a 21-10 win that wasn't that close. Paterno, unlike his counterpart at Ohio State, is clearly a coach who uses his talent wisely. I would say that a Penn State win means the Sweatervest Juggernaut stops here, but, in reality, it stopped a while ago.

#8 Oregon at Stanford - This has all the makings of a "trap" game for Oregon (7-1), doesn't it? They're coming off a 27 point thrashing of USC, and they've been on such a roll that it's tough to believe they can keep it going. Stanford, on the other hand, is 4-3, but all three losses have come on the road. And they've had a bye week to prepare. Oregon's option attack with Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James is potent. But Stanford has an old-school, physical ground game, and tailback Toby Gerhart is 7th in the nation in rushing. I don't know why, but I'm feeling the upset. Fear the Tree. Or the Cardinal.

#9 LSU at #3 Alabama - In three of the last four years, this game has pretty much decided which team won the SEC West. And these games have been the kind of tension-filled slugfests that make even the calmest of fans chew their fingernails to the bone. Last year, Alabama (8-0) won in overtime in Baton Rouge, 27-21. But LSU (7-1) has won in each of their last four visits to Tuscaloosa. In 2007, LSU scored with a minute and a half left to win 41-34. In 2005, LSU won 16-13 in overtime. The Tigers struggled offensively and defensively early in the year, but are improving on both sides of the ball. Alabama's defense is still a dominating force, but their offense lately has been more about field goals than touchdowns. Opposing teams know they can gang up on tailback Mark Ingram, and dare the Tide to win with QB Greg McElroy's arm. But I think Alabama's strong offensive line will give them an advantage over the LSU front seven, and the Tigers' nearly non-existent pass rush - they are last in the league in sacks - may disappear entirely. If LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson does a great job getting the ball to his big receivers, this game could be another classic. But I like Nick Saban's chances of guiding Alabama to a home win with defense, field position, a solid ground game, and some efficient passing from McElroy.

Vanderbilt at #1 Florida - Head coach Bobby Johnson has done about as good a job as you can do when you're the football coach at Vanderbilt (2-7). Last year, he took them to a bowl game for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. And we're talking the first term here. But this year, the Commodores' ship is taking on water. They managed to beat Western Carolina and Rice - two teams who have combined to amass one win this year. All week long, Gator haters and SEC critics everywhere have been making eye-gouging jokes. Funny, huh? Brandon Spikes suspended himself for the second half of this game after his coach suspended him for the first half. You know what? It won't matter. Spikes will still be a first round draft pick, and the Gators (8-0) will gouge the eyes (figuratively speaking) of the Commodores. Florida has won 18 straight against Vanderbilt. If last week's game against Georgia really did wake the Gator offense from its slumber, the rest of the nation should be afraid. Very afraid.