Upon Further Review (Week 2)

I hate sportswriters and broadcasters.  Really.  This week in college football gives us the perfect example why.

Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison.  The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies.  Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.

First of all... As I have discussed before, transitivity doesn't apply in college football. The fact that Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C doesn't mean that Team A can beat Team C. 

Let me give you an example.  In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener.   Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College.  If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?

To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion?  None?  Obviously.  But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.

This is where things get tricky.  Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day.  By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen.  That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."

Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility.  Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years.  Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12?  I don't know.  Nobody knows.  But they sure hold up now.

The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19.  If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008.  If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003.  That same year, they beat BYU in Provo.  In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma.  They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009.  What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?

Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night.  I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year.  Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high.  If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.

I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison.  Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.

But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them.  Let's not take anything away from them either.

Upon Further Further Review (Week 14)

Pressure

By the time we have reached this point in every college football season for the past several years, I am tired, so I know the players and coaches involved must be exhausted. 

The physical grind is as tough as ever, but, these days, the psychological toll of being one of the top programs is absolutely ridiculous. 

I thought of this as I got the news Sunday night that Florida head coach Urban Meyer had checked into a hospital in the early morning hours after the Gators lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  "I've lost a lot of weight this season," he said. "I just have to take better care of myself. It's been a tough season. A great season, but a tough season."

If there is one big difference between this year's Gators, and the championship teams of the past, it is the fact that they started at the top this year, rather than coming from behind. The pressure mounted weekly, and the media feeding frenzy was so persistent and shameless that I was actually embarassed for my former colleagues in the world of sports journalism.

Tim Tebow's concussion had to be the most scrutinized sports-related injury ever.  It literally got to the point where sports news websites would write an entire story just to tell us that there was nothing new to report.  I thought it was stupid at the time, and I said so.

Then, one Florida player is arrested, and it is immediately splashed on websites across the universe and scrolling across the bottom of the screen on each of ESPN's many channels.  Meanwhile, half of the Michigan State squad storms  a party like members of a goon squad, and assaults a room full of people.  Two players were kicked off the team, and eight others are suspended for the Spartans' trip to the Alamo Bowl against Texas Tech.  But, somehow, that gets buried at the back of the sports section.

I suppose there are rewards that come with riding the top of the rankings for most of the season, but the effect of the pressure, apparently, can  be enough to require hospitalization.


When Every Game Matters

I understand the desire to establish a college football playoff in the FBS (Division I).  On the surface, it seems like the American way.  Let them decide it on the field.  Play until there is only one team standing. 

But part of what makes major college football exciting is the fact that every game really does matter.  In past years, top teams could recover from an early loss, but not this year, not in a season in which five unbeatens still remain at the end. 

The stakes are enormous, and the pressure intense.  And look what we ended up with at the end; an SEC Championship game that was basically a play-in for the BCS Championship game; a Big 12 Championship game that meant all or nothing for Texas, and was obviously pretty important to Nebraska too; Oregon and Oregon State playing for the right to go to the Rose Bowl, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech and Clemson fighting to the bitter end for the top spot in their respective leagues, East Carolina squeaking by Houston to win Conference USA.

It was an exciting ending to an intriguing regular season.  And it was all the more intriguing because every game mattered.


Bandwagon Update

Since I proclaimed my new-found love for Idaho and Richmond back on October 27, they have had their share of struggles.  It appears that I do not have the luck of the Irish.  Or anybody else.  And neither do the teams that I adopt.


The Vandals lost four of their last five games, but still managed to finish 7-5, and earn a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl to play Bowling Green. 

While I'm sure head coach Robb Akey would have preferred a stronger finish, it is still the most regular season wins for Idaho since they went 7-4 in 1999.



Although they still have the coolest helmets ever, Richmond had some struggles of their own.

After starting the season with a win at Duke, and charging to an 8-0 record, the Spiders lost at home to Villanova on November 11, and then lost to Appalachian State in the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs, finishing the season at 11-2. 

The biggest loss,though, may have come yesterday, when it was announced that head coach Mike London would be leaving to take the head coaching job at the University of Virginia.

With Tebow, We Are Witnessing History

Saturday afternoon, when I walked into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field, I knew I was about to be part of something special, but I didn’t really know how to define it. It was a feeling for which I had yet to find the right words, but the first thing I saw put it into perspective. Stadium cameras captured the image of a woman holding a sign, and the picture appeared on the giant video screens in each endzone: “We are witnessing history.”

It was Senior Day, the final home game for twenty-four Gators whose accomplishments will be scattered in Southeastern Conference and college football record books for years to come. And it was the last hurrah for Tim Tebow, the quarterback whose own tears as he was introduced before the game prompted an outpouring from tens of thousands of adoring fans. I might not have believed it if I hadn’t seen it myself. After my eyes dried up.

I didn’t say much to anybody during the game. The 37-10 drubbing of arch rival Florida State didn’t really require audience participation. The outcome was never in doubt. I clapped quite a bit, cheered occasionally. Mostly, I watched. I looked around. I soaked it in.

During the second half, each time the Gator offense lined up for a play, little points of bright, white light exploded everywhere in the crowd. First dozens, then hundreds. The flash bulbs of those wanting to capture the memories.

Like most of the 90,907 people in attendance, I stayed until well after the game was over. Even Seminole fans lingered. Moments like that don’t happen too often.

Tim Tebow has endured more scrutiny than anyone his age should. His late-September concussion attracted media attention like no other sports-related injury ever. Some fans at opposing schools have even come to despise his constant presence in print and on television. They question his Christianity, insisting it is just for show. Surely, there is a different Tebow in there somewhere, one that is just like so many high-profile athletes; greedy, selfish, flawed. Surely, he is just using the limelight for his own gain. If not, how could he end up on ESPN so often?

I’ll tell you how. Because he is such a good story.

Tebow seeks the light, but not that kind of light. He is as competitive as any athlete I have ever seen, but he still wants you to realize there is more to life than just winning games. He is a young man who refuses to compromise in an age when everything is negotiable. He wants to help make the world a better place in an age when people have a hard time believing anyone could really want such a thing. If there are Tebow haters out there, it is not because they don’t want to be constantly reminded of what he is, but because they don’t want to be constantly reminded of what they aren’t.

If I stood for anything when I was twenty-two, it was probably my right to wear obscenely torn blue jeans, and not visit the barber as often as I should. Mission trip to the Phillipines? Not likely. Visiting prisoners? Or sick kids in the hospital?  Sorry. Try again.


I am not someone who has strong religious convictions, and I am not claiming to agree with everything he preaches, but I respect the fact that, for him, it’s not an act. It’s genuine. He lives according to his beliefs. And he cares in a way that few people ever bother to. In the Gator Nation, he has really made a difference.  Head coach Urban Meyer said, "I've never seen anything like it. He's made ‘unselfish’ kind of a cool thing."

So, Gator fans, myself included, stayed on Senior Day to watch Tebow make the rounds of the stadium wall one more time, wanting to give back some of what we have been given. It was worth the wait.

Even though he has won a Heisman Trophy, and been part of teams that won two SEC championships and two national championships, he is not the best athlete ever. He is not even the best quarterback ever, at least in terms of pure physical skill. But he may the best ever at pushing the people around him to be better. On the field. And off.

It will be interesting to see where Tebow ends up when his college career is over. Wherever he goes, we'll be watching.

After all, we are witnessing history.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.



#25 California at #17 Stanford - Head coach Jim Harbaugh has Stanford playing with attitude.   They are getting a bit obnoxious about it too.  It's kind of like the bratty little middle school kid down the street that starting taking steroids and working out, and showed up in high school ready to kick your ass.  ESPN.com's Ted Miller says their style of play may even be going a bit beyond the rules.  On his Pac 10 blog, he writes, "There are a few more pokes and grabs and punches in the pile-up and scrum at the line of scrimmage than in the past when Stanford suited up."  But nobody seems to care about that if your name isn't Brandon Spikes.  Note to all the alleged experts who spent two weeks villifying Spikes:  check Dictionary.com for the word "hypocrite" and then get back to me.  After scoring a total of 106 points in the last two games, Stanford has become the new favorite topic in the college football world.  The fact that those points came against Oregon and USC makes it particularly intimidating, especially if you're a California team that managed only a field goal against both of those teams.  The Golden Bears will be without running back Jahvid Best who is still out after suffering a concussion two weeks ago on one of the scariest plays of the year.  Shane Vereen has been an adequate replacement for Best, but quarterback Kevin Riley is mistake-prone, and Cal's defense is lousy (71st in total defense).  The Stanford offense has turned into a juggernaut behind Toby Gerhart, the nation's third leading rusher. All of this points to a Stanford win.  And possibly a hefty dose of eye gouging.  Fear the Tree.

#11 Oregon at Arizona - I've watched Arizona play once this year, in last week's loss at California, and I was not impressed.  How this Wildcat squad managed to beat Oregon State and Stanford earlier in the year, I have no idea.  Oregon is 6th in the nation in rushing offense, and LaMichael James has 100 or more yards rushing in each of the last five games.  But Arizona is a respectable 21st in rushing defense.  Wildcat quarterback Nick Foles has somehow put up some decent numbers, but, to me, he is most notable for his Bonehead Play of the Week back in Week 6,  Both teams are still alive in the Pac 10 race.  Both need to win out.  Arizona plays well at home - their three losses all came in road games - but I think the  Ducks win the game, and also win the competition to see which team has the ugliest uniforms.

#8 LSU at Mississippi - For some reason, Mississippi seems to be a popular pick here.  Even the oddsmakers in Vegas have the Rebels as a 4 point favorite.  I don't get it.  LSU may not be flashy, but they still have great athletes.  Their only losses came at the hands of two of the top three teams in the land.  One thing is certain; they will tackle Dexter McCluster better than Tennesee did.  Speaking of Tennessee, have I mentioned recently that Lane Kiffin is not only a classless loudmouth, he's a lying classless loudmouth?  I did?  Good.  Anyway, let me throw out some amazing statistics for you.  LSU's offense may be rather pedestrian, but their defense has allowed only three rushing touchdowns this year.  That ties them with Florida and Texas for tops in the nation in terms of fewest rushing touchdowns allowed.  And they continue to improve;  they haven’t allowed a touchdown on the ground in their last six games. Also, it should be noted that LSU has prevailed in each of their last four trips to Oxford, which will mean absolutely nothing this Saturday, but it sounds like I know what I'm talking about when I say that.  Or type it.  Mississippi is a team that doesn't play well when saddled with expectations, and everyone seems to expect them to win this one.  I don't.  I think a healthy Jordan Jefferson at quarterback (he missed last week's game against Louisiana Tech with a sprained ankle) can avoid the Rebel pass rush, and I think the Tiger defense will return Jevan Snead to the state of mediocrity he was enjoying before the Tennessee defense rolled over for him.  Speaking of Tennessee, have I mentioned that Lane Kiffin is a lying, classless loudmouth?

Kansas at #3 Texas - Mark Mangino is immense.  What I mean to say is he's immensely proud of the turnaround he has managed at Kansas.  A team that was a perennial doormat in the Big 12 suddenly found itself at 12-1 after the 2007 season, and proud owners of an Orange Bowl victory. And you better believe he is proud, or he will thump you in the chest, and berate you in front of your teammates.  But, after a 5-0 start to this year, the Jayhawks have now lost five in a row, and, suddenly, they stink.  A visit to Austin, Texas is not likely to provide a cure for stinking.  The Longhorns have been, rather quietly, issuing a good old Southwest-style beatdown to everybody they have played.  They continue on the collision course that, in all likelihood, has them meeting the winner of the SEC Championship game for all the marbles.  Everybody knows about Texas QB Colt McCoy and his darling roommate Jordan Shipley.  You probably don't know that Kansas signal caller Todd Reesing has some pretty respectable passing numbers too.  It won't help.  Kansas will continue to stink.  And Texas will continue to issue good old Southwest-style beatdowns.  At least until they play for all the marbles.

Florida International at #1 Florida - The key question in this game is, if you're Urban Meyer, how long do you leave Tim Tebow out there?  You don't want him to spend an entire Saturday on the sidelines getting rusty when you have the Seminoles coming to town next week for a big rivalry game.  But, let's face it, the Gators could probably win this game with me playing quarterback.  Florida fans would like to see future star John Brantley get some work.  Florida International is coming off a big win over the North Texas Mean Green and... Okay, okay.  Forget the hype.  This is likely to be horrible, one-sided game that will be about as interesting as watching paint dry.  One thing I have learned is that, when I need something interesting to say, I find an obscure, but fascinating statistic.  The SEC blog on ESPN.com tells us, "The No. 1 team in the AP poll hasn't lost a November home game to a team with a losing record since 1961. That year, a 2-4-1 TCU team knocked off No. 1 Texas in Austin on Nov. 18."  The FIU Panthers are 3-7, and not likely to add another footnote to the college football history books against the Gators this weekend.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#25 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati - Like many college football fans, particularly those in SEC country, I am inclined to view any team from the league we jokingly call the Big Least as just another pretender.  West Virginia (7-2) has a good running back in Noel Devine, but he sprained his ankle when the Mountaineers nipped Louisville 17-9 last week.  Quarterback Jarrett Brown sprained his ankle too.  That's not good news for a team that is 7-2, but hasn't managed to beat anybody that is actually good.  It's hard to know what to think about Cincinnati (9-0).  They are off to their best start since 1951, when they won nine straight games before losing to Xavier.  I hate to get into comparative scores, but, this year, they hit the road and beat the same Oregon State team that has now beaten Stanford and Cal. Regular readers of this blog will know that I am a Mardy Gilyard fan, not just because he's a great receiver, but because, last year,  he made one of the kindest gestures I've ever seen in a college football game.  Here's the thing that really intrigues me.  Quarterback Tony Pike opened the year putting up great numbers (128 of 199 passing for 1633 yards with 15 TD's and 3 INT's).  Then he gets hurt, and sophomore Zach Collaros takes over and does even better (76 of 100 passing for 1229 yards with 10 TD's and 1 INT).  That's truly remarkable.  The Bearcats will win.  Not necessarily because they are great, but because they are playing the Mountaineers.  Another pretender from the Big Least.

 
#10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State - People in Big Ten country still believe that Iowa (9-1) has a chance of being an at-large BCS team after they lose to Ohio State (8-2).  And they will lose to Ohio State, so that's not really the issue here.  What concerns me is that a state that is well-known for the importance of its early primaries in presidential elections contains so many people who are apparently insane.  The Hawkeyes managed to win their first nine games, but they barely scraped by so often that the question wasn't if they would lose, but when.  In last week's loss to Northwestern, quarterback Ricky Stanzi injured his ankle badly enough that it required surgery.  You might think that other stars on the team would pick up the slack, but they don't have any.  So we're left with an Ohio State team that will clinch the Big Ten title Saturday when they beat Iowa.  They're not going to play for the national championship, but they'll be in the Rose Bowl against the winner of the Pac 10.  That's actually excellent news for Buckeyes fans who can comfort themselves with the knowledge that they won't have to sit through another beatdown at the hands of an SEC team. 
 
Stanford at #9 USC - I don't like USC (7-2), and I'm glad to see them suffering through a season in which they have sustained two losses.  So far.  Of course, there are many teams that would like to "suffer" through such a season.  The Trojans have won the last seven Pac 10 titles, but this year's crown is still up for grabs.  They've also won 47 of their last 48 games at home.  The lone loss in that stretch was Stanford's colossal upset in 2007, when they were 41 point underdogs.  Quarterback Matt Barkley is talented, but sometimes plays like the freshman that he is.  Last week at Arizona State, he completed just 7 of 22 passes, but the defense added a score on a pick six, and USC managed to win 14-9.  Despite what the alleged experts keep telling us, the defense isn't up to the usual standards either.  They are currently ranked 38th.  Among the defenses ranked ahead of them... Duke.  I'm not kidding.  Stanford (6-3), meanwhile, looks more like a Big Ten team of old than a Pac 10 patsy.  They have a strong offensive line, and a big, physical running back in the form of Toby Gerhart who is, rather quietly, the 2nd leading rusher in the nation.  Stanford also has Andy Luck, an effective passer with better than average escapability and a great name.  The alleged experts said Oregon couldn't just line up and run right through the Trojan defense two weeks ago.  But they did.  I think Stanford can do the same thing.  If they can avoid a letdown after last week's shootout win over Oregon, the Cardinal will prevail again.  Fear the Tree.
 
#16 Utah at #4 TCU - I've watched TCU (9-0) play a few times, and I'm convinced they are a well-coached team that can be competitive with anybody out there.  They have competent running backs, an efficient passer in Andy Dalton, and a defense that ranks 3rd behind Texas and Florida.  On top of that, Jeremy Kerley leads the Mountain West in kick returns and punt returns.  Utah (8-1) holds a 5-1 edge in the series, and managed to ambush TCU 13-10 in Salt Lake City last year, but, this season, they haven't been as impressive as the 2008 squad that also ambushed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Since losing at Oregon in September, they've won six straight, and won nine of their last ten road games, dating back to last season.  But they've also changed quarterbacks in mid-season, replacing struggling junior Terrance Cain with promising freshman Jordan Wynn.  With the conference championship and a BCS bowl berth at stake, I think the Horned Frogs win convincingly.
 
#1 Florida at South Carolina - Every good Florida fan knows that there is always reason to fear the old Head Ball Coach.  They remember all too well how South Carolina snuck up on the Gators, and scored a 30-22 win in Columbia in 2005, Urban Meyer's first year at Florida.  And Spurrier has said that he will take more control over the play-calling Saturday in an effort to jump start his offense.  They averaged just 12.3 points in the last four games, after averaging 27.3 in the first six.  Quarterback Stephen Garcia is sharp at times, but inexplicably bone-headed at other times.  They are still 19th in total defense, and should present a challenge for a Florida offense that is having a hard time making big plays.  But, likewise, Florida's 2nd ranked defense should stifle the Gamecocks.  Florida has already clinched the SEC's Eastern Division, and just needs to survive until the huge showdown with Alabama.  Rainy weather could be a factor, but that should favor Florida and their ground game.  When in doubt, I'll take any team with Superman at quarterback.  This is one that will make their fans nervous for a while, but the Gators will win.

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Another Day, Another Gouge

It will be interesting to see how the college football world reacts to the news that eye gouging and dirty play isn't limited to someone named Brandon Spikes.

While reviewing video of a play during which a Florida State fumble was recovered by Clemson, someone on Tomahawk Nation.com, an FSU fan site, noticed that Tiger defensive end Andre Branch (#40 in orange in the video below) doing some gouging of his own on Seminole guard David Spurlock (#79 in white).

Watch carefully to the left of the fumble action...



For every alleged expert who claimed to be surprised and offended that such behavior occurs on the field, what are you going to say now?  Shouldn't you be just as surprised and offended at this?  Or does it only matter when it's one of the best defenders in the country on the nation's number one team?

I'm not saying this kind of thing is pretty, and I'm not saying it should be condoned, but if you are aren't willing to openly admit that it is relatively commonplace, you don't know the game well enough to have any credibility with me.

Let me ask you a question.  Do you think the plastic visors that some players fasten to their facemasks are there to help them see?

It only takes a few minutes of searching before you find examples like the video below.  It's Ohio State linebacker Curtis Terry (#55 in white) giving Florida's Tim Tebow a one-two punch before stepping on him.  All of this while Tebow is laying on the ground.  Why do you think Tebow wanted so badly to score that last touchdown in the BCS Championship Game after the 2006 season?



I assume the alleged experts will climb back on their high horses, and demand that Andre Branch be suspended.  And he should be.  For now, it's in the hands of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. 

But I hope they don't pretend that this is a sudden "rash" of bad behavior that was rare until recently.

One thing is certain.  When I watch college football on television this weekend, I will do so the way I have always done it.  With the sound turned down.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.


Florida State at Clemson - For last week's Homecoming game against NC State, 13,000 Florida State (4-4) fans showed their loyalty by coming to the game disguised as empty seats - their worst home crowd since 1993 - when, oh, by the way, they won a national championship. I can say it here because it's my blog. They are the worst fans ever. Ever. And it turned out to be an exciting game that illustrated what's wrong with FSU this year. They beat the Wolfpack 45-42, thus showing that they can score points in droves, but have a hard time stopping other teams from scoring. QB Christian Ponder has quietly become the 5th ranked passer in the nation in terms of completions per game. It's been hard to notice when their defense is ranked 109th. Meanwhile, Clemson (5-3) running back CJ Spiller has emerged as a Heisman Trophy candidate by doing everything except filling the Gatorade coolers. So, you might wonder how Florida State can beat Clemson in Death Valley. The answer is simple. They can't.

#16 Ohio State at #11 Penn State - This game is kind of flying under the radar now that each and every one of the three people who still think the Big Ten is a good football league is hot to trot for Iowa - the one team that hasn't lost a game, even though they keep trying. There are rumblings from the fans in Columbus that the coaching staff hasn't used their talent wisely, and hasn't developed the abilities of QB Terrelle Pryor. Despite the fact that Ohio State (7-2) hasn't beaten anybody good, they are still ranked 16th for some unknown reason, and can still win the Big Ten if they beat Penn State (8-1), and win the rest of their games. Uh huh. Right. Penn State is having a normal Joe Paterno kind of year. There is nothing at all flashy about them, but they pile up wins like I pile up laundry in my closet. Daryll Clark is a solid performer at quarterback, and their running game, led by Evan Royster, is productive. Still, I think you can argue that the Nittany Lions haven't beaten anybody good either. Iowa (if you want to say they are good) came to town and dominated every aspect of the game in a 21-10 win that wasn't that close. Paterno, unlike his counterpart at Ohio State, is clearly a coach who uses his talent wisely. I would say that a Penn State win means the Sweatervest Juggernaut stops here, but, in reality, it stopped a while ago.

#8 Oregon at Stanford - This has all the makings of a "trap" game for Oregon (7-1), doesn't it? They're coming off a 27 point thrashing of USC, and they've been on such a roll that it's tough to believe they can keep it going. Stanford, on the other hand, is 4-3, but all three losses have come on the road. And they've had a bye week to prepare. Oregon's option attack with Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James is potent. But Stanford has an old-school, physical ground game, and tailback Toby Gerhart is 7th in the nation in rushing. I don't know why, but I'm feeling the upset. Fear the Tree. Or the Cardinal.

#9 LSU at #3 Alabama - In three of the last four years, this game has pretty much decided which team won the SEC West. And these games have been the kind of tension-filled slugfests that make even the calmest of fans chew their fingernails to the bone. Last year, Alabama (8-0) won in overtime in Baton Rouge, 27-21. But LSU (7-1) has won in each of their last four visits to Tuscaloosa. In 2007, LSU scored with a minute and a half left to win 41-34. In 2005, LSU won 16-13 in overtime. The Tigers struggled offensively and defensively early in the year, but are improving on both sides of the ball. Alabama's defense is still a dominating force, but their offense lately has been more about field goals than touchdowns. Opposing teams know they can gang up on tailback Mark Ingram, and dare the Tide to win with QB Greg McElroy's arm. But I think Alabama's strong offensive line will give them an advantage over the LSU front seven, and the Tigers' nearly non-existent pass rush - they are last in the league in sacks - may disappear entirely. If LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson does a great job getting the ball to his big receivers, this game could be another classic. But I like Nick Saban's chances of guiding Alabama to a home win with defense, field position, a solid ground game, and some efficient passing from McElroy.

Vanderbilt at #1 Florida - Head coach Bobby Johnson has done about as good a job as you can do when you're the football coach at Vanderbilt (2-7). Last year, he took them to a bowl game for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. And we're talking the first term here. But this year, the Commodores' ship is taking on water. They managed to beat Western Carolina and Rice - two teams who have combined to amass one win this year. All week long, Gator haters and SEC critics everywhere have been making eye-gouging jokes. Funny, huh? Brandon Spikes suspended himself for the second half of this game after his coach suspended him for the first half. You know what? It won't matter. Spikes will still be a first round draft pick, and the Gators (8-0) will gouge the eyes (figuratively speaking) of the Commodores. Florida has won 18 straight against Vanderbilt. If last week's game against Georgia really did wake the Gator offense from its slumber, the rest of the nation should be afraid. Very afraid.