Upon Further Review (Week 2)

I hate sportswriters and broadcasters.  Really.  This week in college football gives us the perfect example why.

Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison.  The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies.  Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.

First of all... As I have discussed before, transitivity doesn't apply in college football. The fact that Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C doesn't mean that Team A can beat Team C. 

Let me give you an example.  In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener.   Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College.  If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?

To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion?  None?  Obviously.  But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.

This is where things get tricky.  Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day.  By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen.  That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."

Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility.  Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years.  Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12?  I don't know.  Nobody knows.  But they sure hold up now.

The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19.  If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008.  If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003.  That same year, they beat BYU in Provo.  In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma.  They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009.  What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?

Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night.  I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year.  Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high.  If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.

I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison.  Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.

But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them.  Let's not take anything away from them either.

Upon Further Further Review (Bowls - Part II)

More Than Just Turf to Repair

Someone should be fired. Somewhere, there is an idiot, or group of idiots, responsible for the field conditions at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

I don't know much about planting things or growing things. I've had fake office plants shrivel up and die on me. But I'm reasonably certain that I could have kept the Citrus Bowl turf in better condition than it was for the Champs Sports Bowl and the Capital One Bowl.

Nobody should have to play a football game on terrain more suited for trench warfare.

It is not safe for the athletes, and, in this case, I think it may have affected the outcome.  Is it just a coincidence that the slower, plodding teams won both of the games played there?  Would Wisconsin have beaten Miami on a pristine field?  Maybe.  Could Penn State have kept up with LSU?  I doubt it.

After the game, LSU reciever Brandon LaFell said, "That was by far the worst football field I've ever seen in my life."

Now the city of Orlando has more than just turf to repair.  The image of a vacation mecca is certainly damaged too.  At least for fans of the four teams that had to watch the turf peel away in clumps.  This is a city that knows how to do amusement parks, but athletic fields are another matter entirely.

Broncos Bucking the System

After finishing the season unbeaten for the second time since 2006, Boise State now appears ready to muscle their way to the front of the line in college football.  They should start next season in or near the top five in the preseason polls, which gives them a chance to climb higher if teams in front of them stumble.

Here's the scary part, they return 21 starters from this year's squad, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who finished second in the nation in passing efficiency.

They are doing everything they can to bolster their schedule. The perception is that the WAC doesn't offer them enough competition, even though Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State went to bowl games this year.

Boise State opened the 2009 season by dominating eventual PAC 10 champion Oregon, and ended it by defeating unbeaten Mountain West champion TCU.  In 2010, they will play Oregon State at home on the famous Smurf Turf, and Virginia Tech in a (sort of) neutral site game at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.

But, now, the big boys are a bit squeamish about scheduling a game with the Broncos.  They have a reputation for playing with reckless abandon that makes their opponents nervous. 

In the 17-10 win over TCU, the key play was an amazing fake punt that Boise State ran on a 4th and 9 from their own 33 yard line.  The play gained 30 yeards.  Gutsy?  Absolutely.  Typical of Bronco football?  Without a doubt.

Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl has rapidly become the Woodstock of college football.  If as many people actually saw it as are now claiming to have seen it, the broadcast would have had about a 50 rating.

The Three Plays That Shocked the World - the Hook and Ladder on 4th and 18 from midfield that went for a touchdown to send it to overtime, the halfback pass for the overtime touchdown, and the Statue of Liberty on the two point conversion that won the game  - captured the attention of the football-loving world. 

Boise State coach Chris Petersen says, "I think that's what they expect out of us, and we're happy to deliver."

The drama even had a storybook ending when Ian Johnson, who had just run in the two point conversion for the 43-42 win, then scurried off to find his cheerleader girlfriend to ask her to marry him.

Now that opponents have come to expect the unexpected, they still can't stop it.  As Matt James notes in the Fresno Bee, "Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever."

Just ask TCU coach Gary Patterson, who admitted that his team had worked on stopping the fake punt in practice, but failed to do so with the game on the line, "The fake punt was a great call," he said.  "They outcoached us on that play."

Bronco kicker Kyle Brotzman, who threw the pass on the play, had a simpler explanation.  "That's Boise State football," he said.

Next season is likely to bring increased media scrutiny for the Broncos, and more pressure.  But, after going 14-0 this year, and 49-4 since 2006, they might be ready to assume a position among the college football elite.  One thing is certain, if the next BCS game they play in is the championship game, expect the unexpected.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#25 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati - Like many college football fans, particularly those in SEC country, I am inclined to view any team from the league we jokingly call the Big Least as just another pretender.  West Virginia (7-2) has a good running back in Noel Devine, but he sprained his ankle when the Mountaineers nipped Louisville 17-9 last week.  Quarterback Jarrett Brown sprained his ankle too.  That's not good news for a team that is 7-2, but hasn't managed to beat anybody that is actually good.  It's hard to know what to think about Cincinnati (9-0).  They are off to their best start since 1951, when they won nine straight games before losing to Xavier.  I hate to get into comparative scores, but, this year, they hit the road and beat the same Oregon State team that has now beaten Stanford and Cal. Regular readers of this blog will know that I am a Mardy Gilyard fan, not just because he's a great receiver, but because, last year,  he made one of the kindest gestures I've ever seen in a college football game.  Here's the thing that really intrigues me.  Quarterback Tony Pike opened the year putting up great numbers (128 of 199 passing for 1633 yards with 15 TD's and 3 INT's).  Then he gets hurt, and sophomore Zach Collaros takes over and does even better (76 of 100 passing for 1229 yards with 10 TD's and 1 INT).  That's truly remarkable.  The Bearcats will win.  Not necessarily because they are great, but because they are playing the Mountaineers.  Another pretender from the Big Least.

 
#10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State - People in Big Ten country still believe that Iowa (9-1) has a chance of being an at-large BCS team after they lose to Ohio State (8-2).  And they will lose to Ohio State, so that's not really the issue here.  What concerns me is that a state that is well-known for the importance of its early primaries in presidential elections contains so many people who are apparently insane.  The Hawkeyes managed to win their first nine games, but they barely scraped by so often that the question wasn't if they would lose, but when.  In last week's loss to Northwestern, quarterback Ricky Stanzi injured his ankle badly enough that it required surgery.  You might think that other stars on the team would pick up the slack, but they don't have any.  So we're left with an Ohio State team that will clinch the Big Ten title Saturday when they beat Iowa.  They're not going to play for the national championship, but they'll be in the Rose Bowl against the winner of the Pac 10.  That's actually excellent news for Buckeyes fans who can comfort themselves with the knowledge that they won't have to sit through another beatdown at the hands of an SEC team. 
 
Stanford at #9 USC - I don't like USC (7-2), and I'm glad to see them suffering through a season in which they have sustained two losses.  So far.  Of course, there are many teams that would like to "suffer" through such a season.  The Trojans have won the last seven Pac 10 titles, but this year's crown is still up for grabs.  They've also won 47 of their last 48 games at home.  The lone loss in that stretch was Stanford's colossal upset in 2007, when they were 41 point underdogs.  Quarterback Matt Barkley is talented, but sometimes plays like the freshman that he is.  Last week at Arizona State, he completed just 7 of 22 passes, but the defense added a score on a pick six, and USC managed to win 14-9.  Despite what the alleged experts keep telling us, the defense isn't up to the usual standards either.  They are currently ranked 38th.  Among the defenses ranked ahead of them... Duke.  I'm not kidding.  Stanford (6-3), meanwhile, looks more like a Big Ten team of old than a Pac 10 patsy.  They have a strong offensive line, and a big, physical running back in the form of Toby Gerhart who is, rather quietly, the 2nd leading rusher in the nation.  Stanford also has Andy Luck, an effective passer with better than average escapability and a great name.  The alleged experts said Oregon couldn't just line up and run right through the Trojan defense two weeks ago.  But they did.  I think Stanford can do the same thing.  If they can avoid a letdown after last week's shootout win over Oregon, the Cardinal will prevail again.  Fear the Tree.
 
#16 Utah at #4 TCU - I've watched TCU (9-0) play a few times, and I'm convinced they are a well-coached team that can be competitive with anybody out there.  They have competent running backs, an efficient passer in Andy Dalton, and a defense that ranks 3rd behind Texas and Florida.  On top of that, Jeremy Kerley leads the Mountain West in kick returns and punt returns.  Utah (8-1) holds a 5-1 edge in the series, and managed to ambush TCU 13-10 in Salt Lake City last year, but, this season, they haven't been as impressive as the 2008 squad that also ambushed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Since losing at Oregon in September, they've won six straight, and won nine of their last ten road games, dating back to last season.  But they've also changed quarterbacks in mid-season, replacing struggling junior Terrance Cain with promising freshman Jordan Wynn.  With the conference championship and a BCS bowl berth at stake, I think the Horned Frogs win convincingly.
 
#1 Florida at South Carolina - Every good Florida fan knows that there is always reason to fear the old Head Ball Coach.  They remember all too well how South Carolina snuck up on the Gators, and scored a 30-22 win in Columbia in 2005, Urban Meyer's first year at Florida.  And Spurrier has said that he will take more control over the play-calling Saturday in an effort to jump start his offense.  They averaged just 12.3 points in the last four games, after averaging 27.3 in the first six.  Quarterback Stephen Garcia is sharp at times, but inexplicably bone-headed at other times.  They are still 19th in total defense, and should present a challenge for a Florida offense that is having a hard time making big plays.  But, likewise, Florida's 2nd ranked defense should stifle the Gamecocks.  Florida has already clinched the SEC's Eastern Division, and just needs to survive until the huge showdown with Alabama.  Rainy weather could be a factor, but that should favor Florida and their ground game.  When in doubt, I'll take any team with Superman at quarterback.  This is one that will make their fans nervous for a while, but the Gators will win.

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