Rushing Roulette
The difference between Bud Foster and other defensive coordinators with shrunken cojonoes...? How many times have you seen a three man rush in long-yardage passing situations? Against Boston College, with a 16-0 lead early in the 4th quarter, and the Eagles facing a 3rd and 14 from their own 39, Virginia Tech blitzed. The result? BC loses 3 yards. Other coaches please take note. I despise the three man rush.
Riding the Pine
Speaking of Boston College, has anyone noticed that quarterback Dave Shinskie is terrible? First of all, he is a 26 year old "sophomore" after playing a few years of pro basbeball, so he should, in theory, be capable of making better decisions than your average 19 year old, but... no, not so much. In my opinion, once you take money for playing any professional sport, you should be ineligible for any college sport. But that's another story.
Secondly, he has a knack for making bad plays right when the opponent needs them. Let's just look at today's game. He has fumbled once and thrown two interceptions - one in the Virginia Tech endzone. The height of stupidity - trailing 7-0 with no time outs and a 1st and 6 from the Virginia Tech 11, but only 15 seconds remaining, Shinskie scrambled on a pass play. Ok, ok, he got within a yard of the end zone, but by then there was no time left on the clock. You have got to get at least a field goal attempt out of that. Unless, of course, you are Dave Shinskie.
But, hey, at least he improved over last year's performance in Blacksburg in which he went 1 for 12 for 4 yards and threw two interceptions, including a pick 6.
Currently, he is riding the pine, watching his backup lead the Eagles the rest of the way to a 19-0 loss.
Who's the Boss?
Is there a dominant team out there? Texas is currently losing at home to UCLA. It's only half-time, and it may not hold up, but...
Alabama and Arkansas are slugging it out. Both teams have looked good at times, but the quarterbacks have already combined to throw 3 interceptions in the first half - 2 by the Tide's McElroy.
In my view, the dominant team, at least until someone proves otherwise? Boise State.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Week 4
Back by popular demand, it's My Crystal Ball. Thanks to those who e-mailed me at illegalprocedureblog@gmail.com and told me I was a slacker for not doing it for the first three weeks.
Look, I've known for a while that I was a slacker, so it wasn't really necessary for you to tell me that. Many times. Really.
Honestly, though, to present these picks the way I like to takes a lot of homework - looking at various sources to gather information and maybe dig up that tell-tale stat. And, after all that, I am wrong a third of the time anyway!
But that's one of the reasons I love college football - it's often unpredictable, and, as I have argued many times, almost anything can happen on any given Saturday. This is one of the reasons I have argued against a college football playoff. As ESPN says: Every Game Matters.
Now that we've established that, let's look at a few of this week's games that matter...
I think it is safe to argue that today's most important game among the alleged major programs is:
Georgia (1-2) at Mississippi State (1-2): This is a must-win game for Georgia. They began the SEC schedule with a road loss to South Carolina, and lost a close loss at home last week to Arkansas. Starting 0-3 in league play would be a disaster. At that point, you start thinking about bribing someone on the Independence Bowl selection committee. Oh wait, Georgia was just there last year.
I expected Mississippi State to be the most improved team in the league in the second year under Dan Mullen. And they may be, but it hasn't translated into victories. Of course, they have a lot to improve upon. Georgia hasn't lost three straight games since 1990. Normally, I'd take Mississippi State at home, but the Dawgs in red and black need a win badly.
#24 Oregon State (1-1) at #3 Boise State (2-0): Regular readers will know how I feel about Boise State. They are not a fluke. Their offense is multi-dimensional and unpredictable. They have one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Kellen Moore. Their defense is fast and physical. They have veterans everywhere on both sides of the ball. Let's be honest - would you want your favorite team to pay a visit to Boise next week? If you said Yes, you'd better check real quick to see if your pants are on fire. Oregon State is a solid team, but they have inexperience at the quarterback position, and the Rodgers Brothers are not enough to beat the Broncos at home.
#1 Alabama (3-0) at #10 Arkansas (3-0): It's tempting to believe that the Tide may be vulnerable on the road, and I've been hearing for several days now how tough it is to play in Reynolds Stadium. I've been there. It's very nice. But I'm not buying into the crowd noise thing. When you play in the SEC, that is normal. It's something you deal with regularly. So, no offense Razorback fans, but take your alleged roar and stuff it. Here's the key to this game - Arkansas is basically one dimensional. They are 3rd in the nation in passing, but 98th in rushing. Alabama is in the top 20 in both of those categories. That balance will be the difference. Roll Tide.
Best of luck to the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference as they try to put fans in the seats or get anybody at all interested in today's games. The schedule: Illinois is off, Indiana hosts Akron, Iowa hosts Ball State, Michigan hosts Bowling Green, Michigan State hosts Northern Colorado, Minnesota hosts Northern Illinois, Northwestern hosts Central Michigan, Ohio State hosts Eastern Michigan, Penn State hosts Temple, Purdue hosts Toledo, and Wisconsin hosts Austin Peay. Let's go Peay!
Late Note: The guest picker on ESPN GameDay is former US Olympic ski racer Picabo Street. She may possess the second greatest name in sports, behind former NASCAR driver Dick Trickle.
Back by popular demand, it's My Crystal Ball. Thanks to those who e-mailed me at illegalprocedureblog@gmail.com and told me I was a slacker for not doing it for the first three weeks.
Look, I've known for a while that I was a slacker, so it wasn't really necessary for you to tell me that. Many times. Really.
Honestly, though, to present these picks the way I like to takes a lot of homework - looking at various sources to gather information and maybe dig up that tell-tale stat. And, after all that, I am wrong a third of the time anyway!
But that's one of the reasons I love college football - it's often unpredictable, and, as I have argued many times, almost anything can happen on any given Saturday. This is one of the reasons I have argued against a college football playoff. As ESPN says: Every Game Matters.
Now that we've established that, let's look at a few of this week's games that matter...
I think it is safe to argue that today's most important game among the alleged major programs is:
Georgia (1-2) at Mississippi State (1-2): This is a must-win game for Georgia. They began the SEC schedule with a road loss to South Carolina, and lost a close loss at home last week to Arkansas. Starting 0-3 in league play would be a disaster. At that point, you start thinking about bribing someone on the Independence Bowl selection committee. Oh wait, Georgia was just there last year.
I expected Mississippi State to be the most improved team in the league in the second year under Dan Mullen. And they may be, but it hasn't translated into victories. Of course, they have a lot to improve upon. Georgia hasn't lost three straight games since 1990. Normally, I'd take Mississippi State at home, but the Dawgs in red and black need a win badly.
#24 Oregon State (1-1) at #3 Boise State (2-0): Regular readers will know how I feel about Boise State. They are not a fluke. Their offense is multi-dimensional and unpredictable. They have one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Kellen Moore. Their defense is fast and physical. They have veterans everywhere on both sides of the ball. Let's be honest - would you want your favorite team to pay a visit to Boise next week? If you said Yes, you'd better check real quick to see if your pants are on fire. Oregon State is a solid team, but they have inexperience at the quarterback position, and the Rodgers Brothers are not enough to beat the Broncos at home.
#1 Alabama (3-0) at #10 Arkansas (3-0): It's tempting to believe that the Tide may be vulnerable on the road, and I've been hearing for several days now how tough it is to play in Reynolds Stadium. I've been there. It's very nice. But I'm not buying into the crowd noise thing. When you play in the SEC, that is normal. It's something you deal with regularly. So, no offense Razorback fans, but take your alleged roar and stuff it. Here's the key to this game - Arkansas is basically one dimensional. They are 3rd in the nation in passing, but 98th in rushing. Alabama is in the top 20 in both of those categories. That balance will be the difference. Roll Tide.
Best of luck to the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference as they try to put fans in the seats or get anybody at all interested in today's games. The schedule: Illinois is off, Indiana hosts Akron, Iowa hosts Ball State, Michigan hosts Bowling Green, Michigan State hosts Northern Colorado, Minnesota hosts Northern Illinois, Northwestern hosts Central Michigan, Ohio State hosts Eastern Michigan, Penn State hosts Temple, Purdue hosts Toledo, and Wisconsin hosts Austin Peay. Let's go Peay!
Late Note: The guest picker on ESPN GameDay is former US Olympic ski racer Picabo Street. She may possess the second greatest name in sports, behind former NASCAR driver Dick Trickle.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Thursday Night Thought
A brief observation on the Thursday game...
I'd like to know who it was that thought Pittsburgh could win the Big East. Whoever said that, wrote that, or even thought that, please raise your hand and be recognized as an imbecile.
Miami is nowhere near "back" - as last Saturday's game at Ohio State clearly demonstrated. Tonight, Jacory Harris has thrown two interceptions (that makes six already this year), and the Canes have had a punt return for a touchdown called back by penalty. But they're still beating Pitt easily.
Note to Pittsbugh offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr: when your offensive line is being dominated by the defensive front seven, don't call plays that take three to five seconds to develop. It's just... um... dumb.
As I write this, the Panthers are 3 for 14 on third down, and have committed nine penalties (Miami has been whistled for seven penalties - the last two of which, true to the U form, have been personal fouls). The score is 24-3, and let's hope it mercifully ends that way. Soon. It's ugly.
So, for now, the Pittsburgh resume consists of a 38-16 win over the Wildcats of New Hampshire, to go along with losses to Utah and Miami. If the Panthers somehow manage to win the Big East this year, it will have less to do with their capabilities, and more to do with the woeful state of football in a basketball league.
I'd like to know who it was that thought Pittsburgh could win the Big East. Whoever said that, wrote that, or even thought that, please raise your hand and be recognized as an imbecile.
Miami is nowhere near "back" - as last Saturday's game at Ohio State clearly demonstrated. Tonight, Jacory Harris has thrown two interceptions (that makes six already this year), and the Canes have had a punt return for a touchdown called back by penalty. But they're still beating Pitt easily.
Note to Pittsbugh offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr: when your offensive line is being dominated by the defensive front seven, don't call plays that take three to five seconds to develop. It's just... um... dumb.
As I write this, the Panthers are 3 for 14 on third down, and have committed nine penalties (Miami has been whistled for seven penalties - the last two of which, true to the U form, have been personal fouls). The score is 24-3, and let's hope it mercifully ends that way. Soon. It's ugly.
So, for now, the Pittsburgh resume consists of a 38-16 win over the Wildcats of New Hampshire, to go along with losses to Utah and Miami. If the Panthers somehow manage to win the Big East this year, it will have less to do with their capabilities, and more to do with the woeful state of football in a basketball league.
Upon Further Review (Week 3)
I know, I know. I just posted my Week 2 Review and Week 3 is already gone. Sue me. Or, better yet, pay me the big bucks to write these things and they'll always be on time. Or, almost always.
Don't Forget. I Was Right
It is the solemn duty of every alleged sports writer to remind his faithful readers every time his predictions come true, and to never again mention the predictions that backfire. Since I believe in solemn duties, I am choosing now to remind you that, when I discussed (here) the fact that the alleged Notre Dame Mystique no longer exists, I challenged readers to try to convince me that Notre Dame would start the season off with anything better than a 3-3 record.
Well, the Fleeing Irish are now 1-2, and the next three weeks have them playing #16 Stanford and then at Boston College, followed by a home game against Pittsburgh. You do the math.
Just remember I told you so...
Baby Gators
Since I have a strong University of Florida heritage, you'll get a moderate dose of Gator news here. Hey, if you don't like it, find a Seminole blog somehwere. Surely, there are at least one or two of them that know how to spell.
Anyway...
As if any of you need another reason to worry, here is something that should scare everyone but Gator fans.
As I pointed out here, the Gators played more freshman in their first game than any other team in the country.
Here is some complicated math courtesy of the Gainesville Sun following the Tennessee game:
Of the 70 players who made the trip to Knoxville 43 are underclassmen, 21 were on their first road trip and 19 played in their first road game.
The Knoxville News-Sentinel did the math this way: 41% of the players standing on the Florida sideline in Neyland Stadium were either freshman or redshirt freshman.
Note to the rest of the nation: this Gator team may struggle to get victories this season, but they'll get a bunch. Next year, watch out.
Conference Call
You'd pretty much have to be an idiot to think that there is a better college football conference in the land than the SEC. There is just too much evidence - objective, subjective and circumstantial.
ESPN.com's Ivan Maisel recently wrote a little more about that subject here. But there is a subtle nuance that often goes unmentioned, although I'm sure the athletic director at every SEC school knows all about it. Maisel points out that there are seven SEC football stadiums with a capacity of over 80,000 (no other conference has more than four stadiums that big), and those stadiums are filled to an average of 98% of capacity on game days. Think of all those seats, all those fans, paying for tickets.
When you combine that with fanatical booster support, merchandise and licensing income, TV revenues, and the payouts the league has collected from having put teams in BCS bowl games eighteen times since 1999, what that means is, in addition to speed, skill and talent, SEC teams have lots of money for nice things. Nice things attract new recruits. And new fans. And new TV contracts. And on-the-field success. And more national championships. And, thus, the cycle repeats itself.
Instant Chuckle:
Don't Forget. I Was Right
It is the solemn duty of every alleged sports writer to remind his faithful readers every time his predictions come true, and to never again mention the predictions that backfire. Since I believe in solemn duties, I am choosing now to remind you that, when I discussed (here) the fact that the alleged Notre Dame Mystique no longer exists, I challenged readers to try to convince me that Notre Dame would start the season off with anything better than a 3-3 record.
Just remember I told you so...
Baby Gators
Since I have a strong University of Florida heritage, you'll get a moderate dose of Gator news here. Hey, if you don't like it, find a Seminole blog somehwere. Surely, there are at least one or two of them that know how to spell.
Anyway...
As I pointed out here, the Gators played more freshman in their first game than any other team in the country.
Here is some complicated math courtesy of the Gainesville Sun following the Tennessee game:
Of the 70 players who made the trip to Knoxville 43 are underclassmen, 21 were on their first road trip and 19 played in their first road game.
The Knoxville News-Sentinel did the math this way: 41% of the players standing on the Florida sideline in Neyland Stadium were either freshman or redshirt freshman.
Note to the rest of the nation: this Gator team may struggle to get victories this season, but they'll get a bunch. Next year, watch out.
Conference Call
You'd pretty much have to be an idiot to think that there is a better college football conference in the land than the SEC. There is just too much evidence - objective, subjective and circumstantial.
ESPN.com's Ivan Maisel recently wrote a little more about that subject here. But there is a subtle nuance that often goes unmentioned, although I'm sure the athletic director at every SEC school knows all about it. Maisel points out that there are seven SEC football stadiums with a capacity of over 80,000 (no other conference has more than four stadiums that big), and those stadiums are filled to an average of 98% of capacity on game days. Think of all those seats, all those fans, paying for tickets.
When you combine that with fanatical booster support, merchandise and licensing income, TV revenues, and the payouts the league has collected from having put teams in BCS bowl games eighteen times since 1999, what that means is, in addition to speed, skill and talent, SEC teams have lots of money for nice things. Nice things attract new recruits. And new fans. And new TV contracts. And on-the-field success. And more national championships. And, thus, the cycle repeats itself.
Instant Chuckle:
Monday, September 20, 2010
Upon Further Review (Week 2)
I hate sportswriters and broadcasters. Really. This week in college football gives us the perfect example why.
Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies. Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.
First of all... As I have discussed before, transitivity doesn't apply in college football. The fact that Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C doesn't mean that Team A can beat Team C.
Let me give you an example. In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener. Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College. If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?
To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion? None? Obviously. But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.
This is where things get tricky. Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day. By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen. That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."
Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility. Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years. Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12? I don't know. Nobody knows. But they sure hold up now.
The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19. If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008. If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003. That same year, they beat BYU in Provo. In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009. What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?
Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night. I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year. Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high. If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.
I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison. Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.
But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them. Let's not take anything away from them either.
Every one of these idiots wants to write off Boise State already because Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. The argument is that this loss diminishes the importance of the Broncos win over the Hokies. Anybody who actually watched both games knows this is absolutely garbage.
Let me give you an example. In 2007, circumstances and the stars aligned in just the right way for Appalachian State to beat Michigan 34-32 at home in the season opener. Two weeks later, Appalachian State lost to Wofford College. If Wofford College had been scheduled to play Michigan later in the season, which one of you would have bet everything you own on the Terriers beating the Wolverines?
To further illustrate my point, which one of you - after Appalachian State's win over Michigan - would have picked the Mountaineers to beat Florida, the defending national champion? None? Obviously. But that same Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State went on to beat Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl at season's end.
This is where things get tricky. Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday doesn't necessarily mean that team is better than the other, it just means they were better than the other team on that day. By the time you get to the end of a season, you can judge a team based on its complete body of work, but, on any given day, anything can happen. That is what makes college football so much fun. Every Saturday, there are different issues to be considered. Fatigue, injuries, weather and other physical and psychological factors can play a significant role. Home field can be a huge advantage. But the big thing - and this is what really separates college football from the pros - is emotions. This is why you hear the classic cliches about the "look ahead" game or the "letdown game."
Secondly... In my view, Boise State has done everything they need to do to establish BCS credibility. Before you start telling me how bad the WAC is, I'd like to point out the fact that the league contains Fresno State, Nevada and Idaho - teams that have had some measure of success in recent years. Could Boise State hold up to the week in week out punishment of the SEC or the Big 12? I don't know. Nobody knows. But they sure hold up now.
The Broncos record so far this decade is 119-19. If you were surprised by their physical domination of Oregon last year, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the Ducks in Eugene in 2008. If you were surprised that the Broncos knocked off previously unbeaten TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl, maybe you shouldn't be; Boise State beat the 11-1 Frogs in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003. That same year, they beat BYU in Provo. In 2006, they beat Oregon State, and ended that season with the now-famous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. They have compiled a 51-4 record since the start of the 2006 season, and finished unbeaten in 2006 and 2009. What do they have to do? Win a Super Bowl?
Thirdly, the Virgina Tech squad that lost to James Madison bore little resemblance to the Hokies that played Monday night. I watched that game, and they looked as tough and talented as any team I've seen play so far this year. Saturday afternoon, they were demoralized by their hard-fought loss, playing with just four days rest in horrendous weather against a team that was sky high. If they played fifty more times, that would probably be the only time James Madison won.
I don't mean to take anything away from James Madison. Yes, they caught Virginia Tech at a time when the Hokies were extremely vulnerable, but the Dukes were good enough to take advantage of it.
But Boise State has been good enough to win most of the games they play each year, and twice been good enough to win all of them. Let's not take anything away from them either.
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