My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

OK, I'm willing to admit that last week sucked. How many did you get right? Huh? huh? That's what I thought. Here's this week's (almost) guaranteed winners:

Thursday, November 1st

7:30 p.m. #11 Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech
I just don't see the Ramblin' Wreck having enough horses to overcome a very good Virginia Tech defense, even at home. I'm going with the Hokies.

Saturday, November 3rd

Noon #21 Wisconsin @ #1 Ohio State
I hate Ohio State, and, even though they have won 19 straight Big 10 games, I still think they will lose one of their last three. But I also think Wisconsin is the kind of team that can be counted on to lose big games. Plus, Wisconsin running back P.J. Hill is banged up. Plus, it's in Columbus. I'm going with the Buckeyes, even though I hate Ohio State.

Noon #24 Wake Forest @ #23 Virginia
This is a tough one to call. Virginia opened the season with a surprising loss to Wyoming, then won the next seven before losing last Saturday at N.C. State. When Wake Forest plays well, avoiding mistakes, they are hard to beat. They are in the midst of a six game winning streak, and could still win the Atlantic Division of the ACC if Boston College fumbles down the stretch. With that on the line, I think they'll play well Saturday, so I'm picking the Demon Deacons.

12:30 p.m. Nebraska @ #8 Kansas

Kansas is playing with confidence, and they look like almost like a legitimate winner. I still think they are ripe for a loss, but now that Nebraska is down, many of the teams in the Big 12 are taking out years of frustration on Big Red. Kansas, for instance, has lost 37 of the last 38 to Nebraska, Not this year. I'm going with the Jayhawks at home.

12:30 p.m. Vanderbilt @ #20 Florida

Which Florida team will show up? The one that looked great in a close loss to LSU? Or the one whose defense couldn't stop a group of eager cheerleaders like the one that played against Georgia last week? It's hard to pick against Florida when they're playing at home, and they've won the last 16 against Vandy. I think the Gators will pull this one out.

2:30 p.m. Navy @ Notre Dame
I was all set to pick Navy in this one, and then they lost to Delaware last week. The Blue Hens? You must be joking. Maybe they were looking ahead to this week, huh? Wouldn't you love to see Navy win this one for the first time since Roger the Dodger led them to a victory during his Heisman-winning campaign in 1963? Wouldn't you? Wouldn't you love to see Notre Dame's troubles extended and multiplied with a home loss to Navy? Wouldn't you? Ahh, forget it. I'm going with the Irish.

3:30 p.m. #15 Texas @ OSU
One thing about Oklahoma State stands out to me; they play well at home - scoring 86 points in the last two weeks. Frankly, I enjoy every bit of misery that can be inflicted on Texas. Take the Cowboys.

3:30 p.m. Texas A&M @ #6 Oklahoma
I don't see Oklahoma losing this one at home, do you? Didn't think so. Sooners all the way.

5:00 p.m. #3 LSU @ #17 Alabama
This is a tough one to call. Does the whole Nick Saban thing really matter to the players? I don't think so. LSU has the better athletes, but Alabama is at home. All other things being equal, let's look at the coaching. Nick Saban is... well... Nick Saban. And Les Miles is such a moron he doesn't even know that he is a moron. Alabama has lost the last four to LSU, but I'm going out on a limb and taking the Tide.

6:30 p.m. #9 Missouri @ Colorado
I was ready to write off Colorado until they pulled off a win at Texas Tech last week. But Missouri's only loss is a relatively close one at Oklahoma. OK, I'm still ready to write off Colorado. And I think the Tigers are legit.

6:45 p.m. #4 Arizona State @ #5 Oregon
This shapes up as a PAC 10 championship game. Oregon lost at home to Cal early in the year before the Golden Bears ran into their own troubles. Arizona State is still unbeaten. Until last week's victory over a rapidly-collapsing Cal team, ASU hadn't beaten anybody that you could say is very good. After this week, they still won't have beaten anybody you could say is any good. Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter has a bad thumb. The Ducks will win this one.


7:15 p.m. Rutgers @ #13 UConn
Connecticut is unbeaten at home this year. They are 7-1, and, in the 109 years that they have played football, they have never been 8-1. Rutgers is the kind of team I like to pull for, but something about this U Conn team makes me want to jump on their band wagon. They'll be playing to maintain their hold on first place in the Big East, and I think they're on a bit of a roll. I'm going with the Huskies.

7:45 p.m. Florida State @ #2 B.C.
Like all good Gators, I hate Florida State. No, no. I really hate Florida State. B.C. has won 16 consecutive home games since they last lost to - you guessed it - Florida State in 2005. The Eagles do what all championship teams do; they find ways to win - as evidenced by last Thursdays comeback win at Virginia Tech. With Xavier Lee suspended for this game for missing classes (I know, right? Shocking), the 'Noles are stuck with Drew Weatherford at QB, even if he stinks. The temperature could dip into the 40's by game time. I'm hoping for a blizzard in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles will win this one. Did I mention that I hate Florida State?

So Much for Crystal Balls

OK, so, in my first official week of picks, I went 4-8. For those of you who used my picks to place your offshore bets, what were you thinking?

Seriously though, this is further evidence of the whackiness that is the 2007 college football season. The fact that so many outcomes have been surprises makes it much more enjoyable, unless you're a gambler, in which case, you're probably hoping your bookie doesn't send Guido out to snap your knee any time soon.

Sure, I took a few risks with my picks, but how many of you saw Iowa beating Michigan State (in 2 OT's)? How many of you think Kansas is ripe for a loss? Ditto for Arizona State. Ditto for Ohio State. Other games illustrate my point as well. How many of you would have picked Mississippi State to beat Kentucky at home? Or NC State to beat Virginia? How many of you would have told me in August that the Connecticut Huskies would be 7-1 and in control of their own destiny in the Big East?

College football can make lots of people look stupid (including me), but it's fun, isn't it?

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Thursday, October 25
7:30 PM #2 Boston College at #8 Virginia Tech
Hokies are known for their defense, but I'm impressed with the BC D as well. They are hard-hitting and opportunistic. Expect a low scoring game, but I think the Eagles pull out a huge road win.

Saturday, October 27
12:00 PM #7 West Virginia at Rutgers
I'm not sold on West Virginia. I'd really like to pick the Scarlet Knights here. But I can't. I'm going with the Mountaineers.
12:00 PM Michigan State at Iowa
Two teams that are consistently inconsistent. I think the Spartans have a bit too much offense for Iowa.
12:00 PM Colorado at Texas Tech
Ditto above comment, and take the Red Raiders.
3:00 PM #12 USC at #5 Oregon
I hate USC. I don't particularly like Oregon, but I hate USC. I think Oregon's defense isn't as bad as it has been in the past, and their offense is as good as anybody's. USC has new starter in Sanchez at QB. I'm going with the Ducks, mostly because I hate USC.
3:30 PM #10 South Florida at #23 Connecticut
One little loss to Rutgers and suddenly everybody is jumping off the USF bandwagon. UConn is a scrappy team, but only a horseshit non-call on a fair catch enabled them to beat Louisville. I'm taking the Bulls.
3:30 PM #11 Florida at #18 Georgia
The ghost of Steve Spurrier still haunts the Dawgs. The Gators are inside their head. Really. The Gators have too much offense for Georgia to handle.
3:30 PM Nebraska at #19 Texas
This is not a great year for Texas. But it is a terrible year for Nebraska. I'll take the Longhorns.
3:30 PM Clemson at Maryland
Maryland is playing good ball right now. And Clemson is not. I'll take the Terps at home.
7:00 PM #9 Kansas at Texas A&M
Is Kansas for real? I think they will lose at least one. Starting this Saturday. I'm picking the Aggies.
7:45 PM #16 South Carolina at Tennessee
Phil Fulmer's worst nightmare is having a Spurrier-coached team show up in Neyland Stadium fresh off an aggravating, inexplicable home loss. I'm taking the Gamecocks.
8:00 PM #1 Ohio State at #25 Penn State
I think Ohio State is going to lose at least one game this year. I just don't think it's going to be this one. I hate Ohio State, but I gotta take the Buckeyes in this one.
10:15 PM #21 California at #4 Arizona State
Arizona State is unbeaten. Mostly because they haven't played anybody good yet. I think the Golden Bears will rebound from two exceptionally crappy weeks and pick up a win here.

Why I Hate Ohio State

OK, I'm biased. I'll admit it. I'm an SEC fan, I tried to like Big 10 fans. I really did. After several run-ins with their whiny, parochial, pansy asses in bowl games and such, I decided to give up on any attempt to think of them as normal human beings. So, there are a number of reasons whay I hate THE Ohio State University, but the video below clearly shows one of them. This is from the BCS Championship game last year - a 41-14 mauling of the Buckeyes. If you want to see real class, watch what #55 does to Tim Tebow while he is laying on his back. Because of this play, and others like it, Tebow begged the coaches to be allowed to go back in and score the Gators' final touchdown on the ground. Which he did.

Why College Football is Great, and Gator Fans are the Greatest

Since this is a new blog, I need to go back and re-visit a few things. The video above is of relatively poor quality, but it shows the moment that the Gators blocked the game-ending field goal attempt last year to preserve the victory over South Carolina. I know some stadiums are loud, but Florida Field is deafening. I really enjoyed hearing the student in the foreground scream, "Oh my God, oh my God" as he struggles to deal with the sheer tension of the moment. Enjoy!

Transitivity Doesn't Work in College Football

One of the great things about college football is that almost anything can happen on any given Saturday. Upsets and surprises abound. All you need is a bag of pretzels and a six pack of frosty beverages to go along with your TV, and your Saturday afternoons in the fall are complete.

But one thing you have to learn - and you can't read the national media to learn this - is that transitivity doesn't work in college football. Let's back up a minute.

The Dictionary.com definition of transitivity is as follows: Of or relating to a relationship between three elements such that if the relationship holds between the first and second elements and between the second and third elements, it necessarily holds between the first and third elements.

Put simply, if A is greater than B, and B is greater than C, then A is greater than C. It works great if you're talking strictly about numbers, but, when you add the human element along with turnovers, penalties, injuries, etc, you can't compare one set of college football games to try to determine the outcome of another set.

Already, band wagon sports writers are telling us that West Virginia is, once again, a great team after manhandling Mississippi State over the weekend. These same guys jumped off the wagon when South Florida surprised the Mountaineers in Tampa three weeks ago. But here's the logic they're using: Auburn beat Florida at home. Mississippi State beat Auburn at home. So, now that West Virginia beat the Missippi State team that beat Auburn that beat Florida, everyone's got the coonskin caps on again. That's a bunch of hooey. Do you believe, since Wofford College beat the Appalachian State team that beat Michigan at home, that the mighty Wofford Terriers could dispense with the Wolverines on any give Saturday? Of course not. Why? Because you and I know that transitivity does not work in college football.

The West Virginia team that beat the Mississippi State team that beat Auburn that beat Florida still has the toughest part of its schedule remaining: at Rutgers, Louisville, at Cincinnati, UConn and Pittsburgh. I'm betting the Mountaineers stumble at least one more time.

Big Red Getting Chewed Up
I've never met Bill Callahan. He's probably a great guy. But it's hard to believe he'll be back on the sidelines in Lincoln in 2008. How bad have things gotten in Big Red country? When Nebraska won the first of their back to back national championships in 1994, they gave up 162 points all season. This year's Corhuskers surrendered 122 points in the last three games. And two of those games were at home. Their 4-4 record includes a one point win over Ball State. Still on the horizon are games at Texas and at Kansas, along with a home game against Kansas State before finishing the regular season with a trip to Colorado. Maybe they can hire Frank Solich back from Ohio...

Death, Taxes and the Badgers Blow It
I would like to make a sincere, heartfelt request to all voters in the media polls: ignore the early season Wisconsin hype and never, ever rank them in the top 10 again. I have nothing personal against the Badgers. I've heard that Madison is a great place for a football game. And you have to give them credit for always beating the teams they should beat. They handle the Citadel and UNLV and such with ease. But it has occured to me that three things in life are now certain; death, taxes, and a Wisconsin loss as soon as they play one of the (few) good teams on their schedule. They handled Northern Illinois yesterday 44-3. Hot diggity dog. But two weeks ago, Illinois stopped the ranking celebration in Champagne. And last week, Penn State mauled the Badgers in what must have been a distinctly unHappy Valley for Brett Bielema. Just once I'd like to see Wisconsin win a big game. Seriously. When is the last time they won a game that meant anything? Until they do, media voters, please remember this when contemplating your preseason Top 10 next year; Badgers? We don't need no stinking Badgers.

LOTS of Football Left to Play
Congratulations to the top two teams in the latest BCS rankings: Ohio State and Boston College. [Have I mentioned that I hate Ohio State?] Both defenses are playing well, and both teams have reasons to be pleased with things so far. BUT - and I know it's one of the oldest cliches in the game - there is still a LOT of football left to play.

Ohio State must visit Penn State this week before returning home for games against Wisconsin and Illinois, and hitting the road for the season finale at Michigan.

Boston College pays a Thursday night visit to Virginia Tech this week, returns home for a date with FSU, and has back to back road games at Maryland and Clemson before finishing the season in Chestnut Hill against Miami.