Wednesday, December 31, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
This is the third edition of the special bowl season picks. Keep checking back for the amazing, scintillating, stunning final edition.
Air Force vs Houston (Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl)
I like the way Air Force plays football. I always have. They are almost never able to outclass their opponents with better athletes. They play their system, and they do it with intelligence and discipline. I know, right? Shocking for a service academy. Theirs is a ground game, while Houston scores points through the air. And they score LOTS of points. They come into this game leading the nation in total offense, second in the nation in passing offense. You have to like the Cougars in this one.
Boston College vs Vanderbilt (Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl)
You have to feel a bit sorry for Vanderbilt. They finally get to a bowl game, for the first time since Reagan was president (26 years), and it turns out to be four miles away from their home stadium! The Commodores don’t score too many points – they average just over 19 a game which is good for 104th in the nation. They don’t give up too many points though, playing tough, opportunistic defense. But you have to wonder… They started the season 5-0, but lost six of their last seven. Boston College can’t claim to be offensive superheroes either, but their defense is every bit as good as Vandy’s. And they are aiming for their ninth straight bowl win - a remarkable accomplishment, and the nation's longest such streak. I think the Eagles fly away with this one.
Oregon State vs Pittsburgh (Brut Sun Bowl)
This could be yet another close, entertaining game. On paper, these two teams appear to be very evenly matched. Oregon State gave up 65 points in their last game – a home loss to Oregon. Beaver running back Jacquizz Rogers is still recovering from a shoulder injury, and production at running back is a major concern. Oregon State’s Mike Riley is 4-0 in bowl games, so you can bet they’ll be prepared. And I think Dave Wannstedt isn’t the best gameday coach. I’m taking the Beavers, mostly because it’s fun to say Beavers.
Kansas vs Minnesota (Insight Bowl)
Here’s what you need to know about this game: Minnesota hasn’t won a game since October (as pointed out by my friend Jeff). They started the season 7-1, and then lost their last four. Talk about momentum. Kansas has shown that they don’t quite belong in the top tier of Big 12 teams, but QB Todd Reesing has thrown for almost 3,600 yards this season, and I’m guessing he’s going to add a few hundred more in this game. As much as I’d like to pick Minnesota, just because they are the Gophers, I have to pick Kansas in this one.
Georgia Tech vs LSU (Chick-fil A Bowl)
There is some part of me that wants to pick LSU in this one. In theory, they are loaded with defensive talent. In reality, they’ve given up a total of 63 points in their last three games, losing the last two to Mississippi and Arkansas. The Tigers have had the kind of season that makes you forget they are the defending national champions. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has brought the triple option back to major college football, and made it work. Tech tailback Jonathan Dwyer is the real deal. Keep your eye on him. Take LSU’s lack of motivation, and combine that with the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Yellow Jackets, and I think that is a recipe for a Georgia Tech victory.
South Carolina vs Iowa (Outback Bowl)
Iowa enters the game on a three game winning streak, including an upset of previously unbeaten Penn State. South Carolina, on the other hand, lost their lost two games by a combined score of 87-20. There is always this fear in the back of my mind that a Spurrier offense can break out at a moment’s notice and score 50 points. But not this offense at South Carolina. The defense is good, but I just don’t think they can score enough on Iowa to win this game.
Georgia vs Michigan State (Capital One Bowl)
Georgia started the season ranked number one, and it’s been mostly downhill since then. Despite a disappointing season, they have a shot at winning ten games – making it the sixth time in the last seven years that they have reached that mark. Michigan State has the same 9-3 record, but, basically, they lost to the only decent teams they played – California, Ohio State and Penn State. The Penn State game wasn’t even close. This game will feature two of the nation’s better running backs – the Spartans’ Javon Ringer and the Bulldogs’ Knowshon Moreno. The problem for Michigan State is that the Dawgs also have Matthew Stafford, who ranks 15th in the nation in passing efficiency. Michigan State has Brian Hoyer, who ranks 88th. It’s been the Georgia defense that has let them down – surrendering a total of 134 points in their three losses. If the Dawgs can score early, and play with a lead, they should win this one.
Clemson vs Nebraska (Konica Minolta Gator Bowl)
Both teams come in riding a three game winning streak, and playing pretty well. Nebraska’s offense is pretty good (12th in total offense), but has been overshadowed by the other offenses in their league. Both teams have new coaches – Bo Pellini in his first year at Nebraska. Dabo Swinney taking over at Clemson when Tommy Bowden was fired with four games remaining in the season. This looks like another clash of speed versus power. Clemson is faster, Nebraska, perhaps, more physical. Both teams are mistake and turnover-prone. I’ll take Clemson because they are closer to home, playing with a lot of emotion recently, and actually have more big game experience than the current group of Cornhuskers.
Penn State vs USC (Rose Bowl)
I hate USC. Pete Carroll comes across as everybody’s favorite guy, but I have a hard time believing Reggie Bush was the only guy getting paid to play at USC. I have a gut feeling on this one, and my gut says this game will be close than people think. Sure, USC is loaded with pro caliber talent, especially on defense, but Penn State has some athletes too, and probably a little bit of pride. My bowl record already sucks, so I’m going to pick Penn State. Mostly because I hate USC.
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech (Fed Ex Orange Bowl)
This game may give us a chance to catch up on sleep we may have missed on New Year’s Eve. Virginia Tech has almost no offense to speak of. But they win with good defense (7th in the nation in total defense, 13th in scoring defense), and by being opportunistic (and sometimes downright lucky). And you have to like teams like Cincinnati – kind of a nobody team that snakes up and has good seasons now and then. I think the Bearcats have a good chance in what should be a low scoring game.
This is the third edition of the special bowl season picks. Keep checking back for the amazing, scintillating, stunning final edition.
Air Force vs Houston (Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl)
I like the way Air Force plays football. I always have. They are almost never able to outclass their opponents with better athletes. They play their system, and they do it with intelligence and discipline. I know, right? Shocking for a service academy. Theirs is a ground game, while Houston scores points through the air. And they score LOTS of points. They come into this game leading the nation in total offense, second in the nation in passing offense. You have to like the Cougars in this one.
Boston College vs Vanderbilt (Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl)
You have to feel a bit sorry for Vanderbilt. They finally get to a bowl game, for the first time since Reagan was president (26 years), and it turns out to be four miles away from their home stadium! The Commodores don’t score too many points – they average just over 19 a game which is good for 104th in the nation. They don’t give up too many points though, playing tough, opportunistic defense. But you have to wonder… They started the season 5-0, but lost six of their last seven. Boston College can’t claim to be offensive superheroes either, but their defense is every bit as good as Vandy’s. And they are aiming for their ninth straight bowl win - a remarkable accomplishment, and the nation's longest such streak. I think the Eagles fly away with this one.
Oregon State vs Pittsburgh (Brut Sun Bowl)
This could be yet another close, entertaining game. On paper, these two teams appear to be very evenly matched. Oregon State gave up 65 points in their last game – a home loss to Oregon. Beaver running back Jacquizz Rogers is still recovering from a shoulder injury, and production at running back is a major concern. Oregon State’s Mike Riley is 4-0 in bowl games, so you can bet they’ll be prepared. And I think Dave Wannstedt isn’t the best gameday coach. I’m taking the Beavers, mostly because it’s fun to say Beavers.
Kansas vs Minnesota (Insight Bowl)
Here’s what you need to know about this game: Minnesota hasn’t won a game since October (as pointed out by my friend Jeff). They started the season 7-1, and then lost their last four. Talk about momentum. Kansas has shown that they don’t quite belong in the top tier of Big 12 teams, but QB Todd Reesing has thrown for almost 3,600 yards this season, and I’m guessing he’s going to add a few hundred more in this game. As much as I’d like to pick Minnesota, just because they are the Gophers, I have to pick Kansas in this one.
Georgia Tech vs LSU (Chick-fil A Bowl)
There is some part of me that wants to pick LSU in this one. In theory, they are loaded with defensive talent. In reality, they’ve given up a total of 63 points in their last three games, losing the last two to Mississippi and Arkansas. The Tigers have had the kind of season that makes you forget they are the defending national champions. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has brought the triple option back to major college football, and made it work. Tech tailback Jonathan Dwyer is the real deal. Keep your eye on him. Take LSU’s lack of motivation, and combine that with the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Yellow Jackets, and I think that is a recipe for a Georgia Tech victory.
South Carolina vs Iowa (Outback Bowl)
Iowa enters the game on a three game winning streak, including an upset of previously unbeaten Penn State. South Carolina, on the other hand, lost their lost two games by a combined score of 87-20. There is always this fear in the back of my mind that a Spurrier offense can break out at a moment’s notice and score 50 points. But not this offense at South Carolina. The defense is good, but I just don’t think they can score enough on Iowa to win this game.
Georgia vs Michigan State (Capital One Bowl)
Georgia started the season ranked number one, and it’s been mostly downhill since then. Despite a disappointing season, they have a shot at winning ten games – making it the sixth time in the last seven years that they have reached that mark. Michigan State has the same 9-3 record, but, basically, they lost to the only decent teams they played – California, Ohio State and Penn State. The Penn State game wasn’t even close. This game will feature two of the nation’s better running backs – the Spartans’ Javon Ringer and the Bulldogs’ Knowshon Moreno. The problem for Michigan State is that the Dawgs also have Matthew Stafford, who ranks 15th in the nation in passing efficiency. Michigan State has Brian Hoyer, who ranks 88th. It’s been the Georgia defense that has let them down – surrendering a total of 134 points in their three losses. If the Dawgs can score early, and play with a lead, they should win this one.
Clemson vs Nebraska (Konica Minolta Gator Bowl)
Both teams come in riding a three game winning streak, and playing pretty well. Nebraska’s offense is pretty good (12th in total offense), but has been overshadowed by the other offenses in their league. Both teams have new coaches – Bo Pellini in his first year at Nebraska. Dabo Swinney taking over at Clemson when Tommy Bowden was fired with four games remaining in the season. This looks like another clash of speed versus power. Clemson is faster, Nebraska, perhaps, more physical. Both teams are mistake and turnover-prone. I’ll take Clemson because they are closer to home, playing with a lot of emotion recently, and actually have more big game experience than the current group of Cornhuskers.
Penn State vs USC (Rose Bowl)
I hate USC. Pete Carroll comes across as everybody’s favorite guy, but I have a hard time believing Reggie Bush was the only guy getting paid to play at USC. I have a gut feeling on this one, and my gut says this game will be close than people think. Sure, USC is loaded with pro caliber talent, especially on defense, but Penn State has some athletes too, and probably a little bit of pride. My bowl record already sucks, so I’m going to pick Penn State. Mostly because I hate USC.
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech (Fed Ex Orange Bowl)
This game may give us a chance to catch up on sleep we may have missed on New Year’s Eve. Virginia Tech has almost no offense to speak of. But they win with good defense (7th in the nation in total defense, 13th in scoring defense), and by being opportunistic (and sometimes downright lucky). And you have to like teams like Cincinnati – kind of a nobody team that snakes up and has good seasons now and then. I think the Bearcats have a good chance in what should be a low scoring game.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
This is the second edition of the special bowl season picks. Keep checking back for the last edition.
Don't let the fact that I'm 1-5 in my previous set of picks bother you too much. Boise State almost got it done, and so did Miami. North Carolina had a lousy fourth quarter - turning the ball over twice - otherwise, they played pretty well against West Virginia. Hawaii is still in need of a collective Heimlich Maneuver after choking as badly as they did. And Central Michigan coach Butch Jones showed why he is still coaching at Central Michigan. The lone shining moment from my first set of picks? The Florida State drubbing of Wisconsin. Sad, but true.
This set is likely to be MUCH better.
Northern Illinois vs Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl)
This is a battle of dogs, Huskies against Bulldogs, and a matchup of two teams with solid running games and suspect passing games. This is basically a home game for Louisiana Tech, which is good news for them. They’ve only lost once at home this year. I’ll take Louisiana Tech.
NC State vs Rutgers (PapaJohns.com Bowl)
Rutgers looked like a hopeless cause at the start of the season after opening with a 1-5 record. Then they won their last six games, all in all, a heck of a coaching job by Greg Schiano. Similarly, North Carolina State started the year 2-6, but they’re on a hot streak after closing the season with four straight wins. On a whim, I’ll take NC State in this one.
Missouri vs Northwestern (Valero Alamo Bowl)
Northwestern is, very quietly, 9-3, and would be 10-2 except for an inexplicable loss to Indiana. They run the ball well, and that might help them stay in the game with a Missouri team that plays very little defense to speak of. In what should be a shootout, I still think Missouri has too much firepower for the Wildcats.
Maryland vs Nevada (Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl)
If early reports are correct, and if you count the workers in the concession areas, there may be about 29 people at this game. That’s too bad because watching almost any game on the Smurf Turf is fun. Maryland is one of the most remarkably inconsistent teams I’ve seen. They beat four ranked teams this year, but lost to Middle Tennessee State, got shutout by Virginia, and got pounded at home by FSU. Which Terps will show up? Nevada, amazingly, is fifth in the nation in total offense, but their defense is every bit as suspect as Maryland’s sometimes is. I think Nevada is a bit more excited about this than Maryland, and that may be the difference. And I’m betting on a big game from Wolfpack QB Colin Kaepernick.
Western Michigan vs Rice (Texas Bowl)
This is another game that should be an entertaining shootout. The Broncos lost their last game of the regular season to Ball State. Rice is on a six game winning streak, and Chase Clement is another one of those very solid quarterbacks that you may not have heard of. I’ll go with Rice.
Oklahoma State vs Oregon (Pacific Life Holiday Bowl)
This should be yet another entertaining, high-scoring game. It’s tempting to pick an Oregon team that piles up points and yards at will sometimes. But it is also tempting to pick an Oklahoma State team that runs very well, and has a decent passing attack to go with the running game. Can the Cowboys hold the ball and keep the Oregon offense off the field? I think so.
This is the second edition of the special bowl season picks. Keep checking back for the last edition.
Don't let the fact that I'm 1-5 in my previous set of picks bother you too much. Boise State almost got it done, and so did Miami. North Carolina had a lousy fourth quarter - turning the ball over twice - otherwise, they played pretty well against West Virginia. Hawaii is still in need of a collective Heimlich Maneuver after choking as badly as they did. And Central Michigan coach Butch Jones showed why he is still coaching at Central Michigan. The lone shining moment from my first set of picks? The Florida State drubbing of Wisconsin. Sad, but true.
This set is likely to be MUCH better.
Northern Illinois vs Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl)
This is a battle of dogs, Huskies against Bulldogs, and a matchup of two teams with solid running games and suspect passing games. This is basically a home game for Louisiana Tech, which is good news for them. They’ve only lost once at home this year. I’ll take Louisiana Tech.
NC State vs Rutgers (PapaJohns.com Bowl)
Rutgers looked like a hopeless cause at the start of the season after opening with a 1-5 record. Then they won their last six games, all in all, a heck of a coaching job by Greg Schiano. Similarly, North Carolina State started the year 2-6, but they’re on a hot streak after closing the season with four straight wins. On a whim, I’ll take NC State in this one.
Missouri vs Northwestern (Valero Alamo Bowl)
Northwestern is, very quietly, 9-3, and would be 10-2 except for an inexplicable loss to Indiana. They run the ball well, and that might help them stay in the game with a Missouri team that plays very little defense to speak of. In what should be a shootout, I still think Missouri has too much firepower for the Wildcats.
Maryland vs Nevada (Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl)
If early reports are correct, and if you count the workers in the concession areas, there may be about 29 people at this game. That’s too bad because watching almost any game on the Smurf Turf is fun. Maryland is one of the most remarkably inconsistent teams I’ve seen. They beat four ranked teams this year, but lost to Middle Tennessee State, got shutout by Virginia, and got pounded at home by FSU. Which Terps will show up? Nevada, amazingly, is fifth in the nation in total offense, but their defense is every bit as suspect as Maryland’s sometimes is. I think Nevada is a bit more excited about this than Maryland, and that may be the difference. And I’m betting on a big game from Wolfpack QB Colin Kaepernick.
Western Michigan vs Rice (Texas Bowl)
This is another game that should be an entertaining shootout. The Broncos lost their last game of the regular season to Ball State. Rice is on a six game winning streak, and Chase Clement is another one of those very solid quarterbacks that you may not have heard of. I’ll go with Rice.
Oklahoma State vs Oregon (Pacific Life Holiday Bowl)
This should be yet another entertaining, high-scoring game. It’s tempting to pick an Oregon team that piles up points and yards at will sometimes. But it is also tempting to pick an Oklahoma State team that runs very well, and has a decent passing attack to go with the running game. Can the Cowboys hold the ball and keep the Oregon offense off the field? I think so.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Premature Afterbirth (Part 1)
A few observations on the recent bowl games…
Hawaii vs Notre Dame
I will never, ever write another positive thing about Hawaii again. Given a chance to win their eighth game of the season and finish above .500, given a chance to play a bowl game in their own backyard instead of 3,000 miles away, given a chance to show a Christmas Eve national television audience what they can do, given a chance to take advantage of a matchup against a team that hasn’t won a bowl game since the year after Bill Clinton was first elected president, given a chance to get a signature win over, arguably, the most recognizable college football team in the land, what did they do? They choked. They stunk. They barely even showed up.
Notre Dame won 41-29, and the game wasn’t even that close. Hawaii somehow managed to make Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen look like Johnny Unitas. He threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns – both Notre Dame bowl records. Yes, that Jimmy Clausen. Don’t worry. You’re not alone. I don’t understand it either.
Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
Let me be the first (or at least one of the first) to say that I wouldn’t want Central Michigan’s Butch Jones to coach dung out of a calf. Double threat Dan LeFevour had a respectable first half passing, but -2 yards rushing. Why Jones chose to keep his star quarterback harnessed, I have no idea. In the second half, LeFevour netted fifty-eight yards rushing but, by then, they were playing catch up. Trailing by 11 with just over five minutes left in the game, the Chippewas drove to the Florida Atlantic six yard line. Faced with a fourth and goal, Jones, of course, chose to… go for it? Wait. Five minutes left. You need two scores. Don’t you take the nearly sure three pointer? Not if you’re Butch Jones.
Fourth down, incomplete pass. The score is still 24-13.
Fortunately, Florida Atlantic bailed him out by having the world’s worst three and out on their subsequent possession, losing two yards on first down from their own six yard line, and then throwing consecutive incomplete passes on second and third. One lousy punt later, and Central Michigan has the ball at the Florida Atlantic thirty-four. Give LeFevour credit for guiding his team to a crucial touchdown, and converting the two pointer to make the game exciting again.
Florida Atlantic 24, Central Michigan 21.
It’s decision time. With 3:09 left in the game, and two timeouts remaining, Jones, of course, chose to… do an onside kick? Before your scoring drive, you had stopped the Owls on three straight downs on a possession that consumed a grand total of fifty-four seconds. Don’t you send it deep and play defense? Not if you’re Butch Jones.
The onside kick fails, as most do. Game over. Great job, Butch.
Hawaii vs Notre Dame
I will never, ever write another positive thing about Hawaii again. Given a chance to win their eighth game of the season and finish above .500, given a chance to play a bowl game in their own backyard instead of 3,000 miles away, given a chance to show a Christmas Eve national television audience what they can do, given a chance to take advantage of a matchup against a team that hasn’t won a bowl game since the year after Bill Clinton was first elected president, given a chance to get a signature win over, arguably, the most recognizable college football team in the land, what did they do? They choked. They stunk. They barely even showed up.
Notre Dame won 41-29, and the game wasn’t even that close. Hawaii somehow managed to make Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen look like Johnny Unitas. He threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns – both Notre Dame bowl records. Yes, that Jimmy Clausen. Don’t worry. You’re not alone. I don’t understand it either.
Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
Let me be the first (or at least one of the first) to say that I wouldn’t want Central Michigan’s Butch Jones to coach dung out of a calf. Double threat Dan LeFevour had a respectable first half passing, but -2 yards rushing. Why Jones chose to keep his star quarterback harnessed, I have no idea. In the second half, LeFevour netted fifty-eight yards rushing but, by then, they were playing catch up. Trailing by 11 with just over five minutes left in the game, the Chippewas drove to the Florida Atlantic six yard line. Faced with a fourth and goal, Jones, of course, chose to… go for it? Wait. Five minutes left. You need two scores. Don’t you take the nearly sure three pointer? Not if you’re Butch Jones.
Fourth down, incomplete pass. The score is still 24-13.
Fortunately, Florida Atlantic bailed him out by having the world’s worst three and out on their subsequent possession, losing two yards on first down from their own six yard line, and then throwing consecutive incomplete passes on second and third. One lousy punt later, and Central Michigan has the ball at the Florida Atlantic thirty-four. Give LeFevour credit for guiding his team to a crucial touchdown, and converting the two pointer to make the game exciting again.
Florida Atlantic 24, Central Michigan 21.
It’s decision time. With 3:09 left in the game, and two timeouts remaining, Jones, of course, chose to… do an onside kick? Before your scoring drive, you had stopped the Owls on three straight downs on a possession that consumed a grand total of fifty-four seconds. Don’t you send it deep and play defense? Not if you’re Butch Jones.
The onside kick fails, as most do. Game over. Great job, Butch.
Monday, December 22, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
This is the special bowl season edition, and I'm not going to post all of it at once, so keep checking back.
TCU vs Boise State (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)
I like Boise State over TCU in what would be a slight upset. TCU linebacker Robert Henson has been declared academically ineligible, and Boise State will be motivated to finish another season unbeaten. TCU’s only losses are at Oklahoma and at Utah, but in each of those games, the Horned Frogs scored just 10 points. So this MAY end up being a lower scoring affair than one might expect.
Hawaii vs Notre Dame (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl)
The Warriors played well in their last game (a close 29-24 loss to a good Cincinnati team). Both teams have heavy motivation to win. Hawaii wants to beat Notre Dame just because they are Notre Dame. The Irish are trying to avoid losing their tenth bowl game in a row – having already set an NCAA record for bowl futility. Of Notre Dame’s nine consecutive bowl losses, seven have been by double digits. I like Hawaii in this one. Plus, I hate Notre Dame.
West Virginia vs North Carolina (Meineke Car Care Bowl)
Two teams that sputtered across the finish line this season. West Virginia started the season 1-2, but reeled off 5 straight wins to regain some respect, only to go 2-2 down the stretch. North Carolina appeared to hit stride in mid-season with consecutive wins over Miami, Connecticut and Notre Dame, but lost two of their last three, including a 41-10 pounding by North Carolina State. This game is in Charlotte, which may be a bit of a boost for the Tarheels. If their defense plays the way it is capable, the Tarheels will win in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Central Michigan vs Florida Atlantic (Motor City Bowl)
2008 was a tale of two seasons for Florida Atlantic. After starting 1-5, they ended the season with a 5-1 run to get them bowl eligible. Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour may be the best quarterback you’ve never heard of, and this game is in Detroit – basically Central Michigan’s back yard. This game should keep the scoreboard operator busy. Take Central Michigan in a shootout.
Florida State vs Wisconsin (Champs Sports Bowl)
Hhhhhelp! That’s the last thing you’ll hear from Badger QB Dustin Sherer right before he is buried by FSU super pass-rusher Everette Brown. Wisconsin is a consistently over-rated, under-performing team, and they have not seen athletes anything like what Florida State can put on the field. I hate the Seminoles, but, while they have had an up and down season, I think they run around, then through, then over Wisconsin in this one.
California vs Miami (Emerald Bowl)
Experts everywhere are predicting a big win for California here, but I’m not so sure. Yes, Georgia Tech and NC State combined to rush for nearly 700 yards in Miami’s last two games (both losses), but I’m willing to bet their offensive lines are better (or at least more healthy) than California’s. Miami QB Robert Marve is suspended for the game, but he has seen split duty with Jacory Harris all season, and Harris is ready to go. Cal’s resume just isn’t all that impressive. They are 1-4 on the road, with their only road win coming against a terrible Washington State team. This game is almost a home game though; it's played right across the bay in San Francisco. I hate Miami, but I think they can keep this one close, and maybe even pull off the upset.
This is the special bowl season edition, and I'm not going to post all of it at once, so keep checking back.
TCU vs Boise State (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)
I like Boise State over TCU in what would be a slight upset. TCU linebacker Robert Henson has been declared academically ineligible, and Boise State will be motivated to finish another season unbeaten. TCU’s only losses are at Oklahoma and at Utah, but in each of those games, the Horned Frogs scored just 10 points. So this MAY end up being a lower scoring affair than one might expect.
Hawaii vs Notre Dame (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl)
The Warriors played well in their last game (a close 29-24 loss to a good Cincinnati team). Both teams have heavy motivation to win. Hawaii wants to beat Notre Dame just because they are Notre Dame. The Irish are trying to avoid losing their tenth bowl game in a row – having already set an NCAA record for bowl futility. Of Notre Dame’s nine consecutive bowl losses, seven have been by double digits. I like Hawaii in this one. Plus, I hate Notre Dame.
West Virginia vs North Carolina (Meineke Car Care Bowl)
Two teams that sputtered across the finish line this season. West Virginia started the season 1-2, but reeled off 5 straight wins to regain some respect, only to go 2-2 down the stretch. North Carolina appeared to hit stride in mid-season with consecutive wins over Miami, Connecticut and Notre Dame, but lost two of their last three, including a 41-10 pounding by North Carolina State. This game is in Charlotte, which may be a bit of a boost for the Tarheels. If their defense plays the way it is capable, the Tarheels will win in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Central Michigan vs Florida Atlantic (Motor City Bowl)
2008 was a tale of two seasons for Florida Atlantic. After starting 1-5, they ended the season with a 5-1 run to get them bowl eligible. Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour may be the best quarterback you’ve never heard of, and this game is in Detroit – basically Central Michigan’s back yard. This game should keep the scoreboard operator busy. Take Central Michigan in a shootout.
Florida State vs Wisconsin (Champs Sports Bowl)
Hhhhhelp! That’s the last thing you’ll hear from Badger QB Dustin Sherer right before he is buried by FSU super pass-rusher Everette Brown. Wisconsin is a consistently over-rated, under-performing team, and they have not seen athletes anything like what Florida State can put on the field. I hate the Seminoles, but, while they have had an up and down season, I think they run around, then through, then over Wisconsin in this one.
California vs Miami (Emerald Bowl)
Experts everywhere are predicting a big win for California here, but I’m not so sure. Yes, Georgia Tech and NC State combined to rush for nearly 700 yards in Miami’s last two games (both losses), but I’m willing to bet their offensive lines are better (or at least more healthy) than California’s. Miami QB Robert Marve is suspended for the game, but he has seen split duty with Jacory Harris all season, and Harris is ready to go. Cal’s resume just isn’t all that impressive. They are 1-4 on the road, with their only road win coming against a terrible Washington State team. This game is almost a home game though; it's played right across the bay in San Francisco. I hate Miami, but I think they can keep this one close, and maybe even pull off the upset.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
The Top Ten Moments in the Gator Season
A look back at how the Gators made it to the BCS championship game.
1. The Drive Against Alabama
Alabama dominates the third quarter, holding the ball for 10 minutes, and scoring 10 points. The Gators begin the 4th quarter trailing 20-17, but embark on an 11 play, 47 yard drive, consuming nine minutes and regaining the momentum and the lead for good.
2. The Loss to Ole Miss
The painful upset galvanized the Gators in a way that a sloppy victory might not have. Tim Tebow has made good on his now-famous pledge to play hard and push the team. Since then, the Gators have outscored their opponents 445-110.
3. Brandon Spikes Hits Knowshon Moreno
The Georgia running back takes a handoff on the second play from scrimmage, but Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes levels Moreno, who usually pops right up after being tackled, but not this time. Spikes lingers on top of him for several seconds to deliver a message: Not today. After gashing the Gators for 188 yards last year, Moreno is held to 65 yards.
4. The Fourth Quarter of the Arkansas Game
Florida looked out of synch at Arkansas until, leading 17-7 heading into the fourth quarter, things started clicking. A 21 yard touchdown pass from Tebow to Harvin caps an 83 yard drive. Then Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps and break off scoring runs of 75 and 48 yards, respectively. The Gators win 38-7, and, establish Rainey and Demps as trusted weapons.
5. Joe Haden's Interception Against Georgia
With eight minutes left in the third quarter, the Gators leading 14-3, and Georgia driving to the Florida 30, Joe Haden steps in front of a Stafford pass and returns it 86 yards to the Georgia one yard line. Tebow chases Haden on the sidelines, and tells him, “That’s how you change a game!” Tebow scores on a one yard run on the next play. Game over.
6. The Scoring Flurry Against South Carolina
After a shaky opening that saw the Gators sputter and fumble, they scored three touchdowns in less than three minutes, starting with a Brandon Spikes pick six, taking a quick 21-0 lead on the way to a 56-6 drubbing of the Gamecocks.
7. Brandon James Returns Kicks Against Tennessee
Florida sends a message: Beware of our special teams. Brandon James returns the opening kickoff 52 yards to set up the Gators’ first score, but a few minutes later he returns a punt 78 yards for a touchdown. This performance causes Knoxville News-Sentinel columnist John Adams to write,” What does Florida's Brandon James have to do for UT to stop kicking him the ball? Score twice on one play?”
8. The First Touchdown Against LSU
On Florida’s opening possession, with the Gators facing a third and twelve from their own thirty, Tebow’s pass, intended for Percy Harvin, is underthrown. LSU safety Danny McCray tips the ball into the hands of the waiting Harvin who then sprints into the endzone with the 70 yard completion. A bad pass becomes the game’s first touchdown, and, from that point forward, the Gators were off to the races.
9. Consecutive Blocked Punts Against Kentucky
In the seventh game of the year, Florida continues to terrify opponents with their special teams play. In a span of less than five minutes in the first quarter, the Gators block back-to-back Kentucky punts resulting in touchdown drives of four yards and one yard.
10. Tebow's Touchdown in Tallahassee
In the pouring rain, with 7:32 remaining in the first half and Florida leading 14-6, Percy Harvin is injured on a 5 yard carry. Florida State fans cheer. Tebow is furious, and asks for the ball. Two plays later, he completes a four yard touchdown run, carrying a pile of about ten players into the endzone with him. Message to opponents: Don’t make Tebow angry.
1. The Drive Against Alabama
Alabama dominates the third quarter, holding the ball for 10 minutes, and scoring 10 points. The Gators begin the 4th quarter trailing 20-17, but embark on an 11 play, 47 yard drive, consuming nine minutes and regaining the momentum and the lead for good.
2. The Loss to Ole Miss
The painful upset galvanized the Gators in a way that a sloppy victory might not have. Tim Tebow has made good on his now-famous pledge to play hard and push the team. Since then, the Gators have outscored their opponents 445-110.
3. Brandon Spikes Hits Knowshon Moreno
The Georgia running back takes a handoff on the second play from scrimmage, but Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes levels Moreno, who usually pops right up after being tackled, but not this time. Spikes lingers on top of him for several seconds to deliver a message: Not today. After gashing the Gators for 188 yards last year, Moreno is held to 65 yards.
4. The Fourth Quarter of the Arkansas Game
Florida looked out of synch at Arkansas until, leading 17-7 heading into the fourth quarter, things started clicking. A 21 yard touchdown pass from Tebow to Harvin caps an 83 yard drive. Then Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps and break off scoring runs of 75 and 48 yards, respectively. The Gators win 38-7, and, establish Rainey and Demps as trusted weapons.
5. Joe Haden's Interception Against Georgia
With eight minutes left in the third quarter, the Gators leading 14-3, and Georgia driving to the Florida 30, Joe Haden steps in front of a Stafford pass and returns it 86 yards to the Georgia one yard line. Tebow chases Haden on the sidelines, and tells him, “That’s how you change a game!” Tebow scores on a one yard run on the next play. Game over.
6. The Scoring Flurry Against South Carolina
After a shaky opening that saw the Gators sputter and fumble, they scored three touchdowns in less than three minutes, starting with a Brandon Spikes pick six, taking a quick 21-0 lead on the way to a 56-6 drubbing of the Gamecocks.
7. Brandon James Returns Kicks Against Tennessee
Florida sends a message: Beware of our special teams. Brandon James returns the opening kickoff 52 yards to set up the Gators’ first score, but a few minutes later he returns a punt 78 yards for a touchdown. This performance causes Knoxville News-Sentinel columnist John Adams to write,” What does Florida's Brandon James have to do for UT to stop kicking him the ball? Score twice on one play?”
8. The First Touchdown Against LSU
On Florida’s opening possession, with the Gators facing a third and twelve from their own thirty, Tebow’s pass, intended for Percy Harvin, is underthrown. LSU safety Danny McCray tips the ball into the hands of the waiting Harvin who then sprints into the endzone with the 70 yard completion. A bad pass becomes the game’s first touchdown, and, from that point forward, the Gators were off to the races.
9. Consecutive Blocked Punts Against Kentucky
In the seventh game of the year, Florida continues to terrify opponents with their special teams play. In a span of less than five minutes in the first quarter, the Gators block back-to-back Kentucky punts resulting in touchdown drives of four yards and one yard.
10. Tebow's Touchdown in Tallahassee
In the pouring rain, with 7:32 remaining in the first half and Florida leading 14-6, Percy Harvin is injured on a 5 yard carry. Florida State fans cheer. Tebow is furious, and asks for the ball. Two plays later, he completes a four yard touchdown run, carrying a pile of about ten players into the endzone with him. Message to opponents: Don’t make Tebow angry.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
A Pox on Fox
I happen to be a BCS proponent. Typically, despite the pissing and moaning that goes on every year, they’ve managed to get it right. So I’m not going to take up space here complaining about that.
But I AM going to complain about Fox broadcasting the BCS games. Here’s why: They suck.
They don’t do a single college game all year long, and then they get to broadcast the biggest games of them all? I understand that they outbid the other suitors, and money talks, but, holy God, the Fox telecasts are almost unwatchable.
During the BCS selection show tonight, right after announcing that Florida was playing Oklahoma for the national championship, Gator head coach Urban Meyer came on to be interviewed and the Fox moron promptly asked him about his hair. I’m not kidding. I wish I was.
Fifteen minutes later, I switched to ESPN, and the talking heads there actually asked thoughtful, probing questions. The good news is ESPN has a new four year contract to air the BCS games. The bad news is it doesn’t kick in until 2011.
But I AM going to complain about Fox broadcasting the BCS games. Here’s why: They suck.
They don’t do a single college game all year long, and then they get to broadcast the biggest games of them all? I understand that they outbid the other suitors, and money talks, but, holy God, the Fox telecasts are almost unwatchable.
During the BCS selection show tonight, right after announcing that Florida was playing Oklahoma for the national championship, Gator head coach Urban Meyer came on to be interviewed and the Fox moron promptly asked him about his hair. I’m not kidding. I wish I was.
Fifteen minutes later, I switched to ESPN, and the talking heads there actually asked thoughtful, probing questions. The good news is ESPN has a new four year contract to air the BCS games. The bad news is it doesn’t kick in until 2011.
Afterbirth (Week 15)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
BCS Set?
The regular season is finally over, and the three big conference championship games definitely lived up to expectations. The SEC game was an instant classic. The Big 12 game showed that Missouri still isn’t ready for the big time. And the ACC game was… Wait. Was there an ACC game? Nobody really cared, including, apparently, Boston College, even though they were in it.
Florida and Alabama played the most entertaining game of the day, by far, with each team seizing momentum on several occasions, only to have it seized back by the opponent. All week long, the “experts” told us that this was a case of power against speed. Florida coach Urban Meyer didn’t think so. These Gators have plenty of toughness too. Florida ended up outrushing Alabama, and won the time of possession battle, essentially beating the Tide at their own game.
Oklahoma made Missouri look like a Pop Warner team, but probably set up a colossal BCS championship game against the Gators, if the computers cooperate.
Why I Like Lee Corso
Over the years, most college football fans have come to rely on ESPN College Gameday for information and entertainment. If you like college football, you know Chris, Kirk and Lee. You may not like them, but you know them.
Back in the day, I kind of liked Chris Fowler. I thought Kirk Herbstreit brought a lot of credibility to the broadcast. And I thought Lee Corso was nothing more than a buffoon. Not so fast, my friend. Over the years, Fowler has said many things that annoyed me. It's been a cumulative effect that has built slowly, but now I dislike him fairly intensely. And, frankly, he reminds me of Fred Flintstone as a young man.
Kirk Herbstreit started off as a fairly likeable guy, but, over the years, started taking himself too seriously, and spending more time editorializing than analyzing. Plus, he's a Buckeye. I hate the Buckeyes.
Lee Corso initially seemed like he was on the set purely for comedic value. And he wasn't funny. But, as my opinion of the others deteriorated, my opinion of Corso took a positive turn. Now, while I may not always agree with him, I enjoy the light-hearted approach he brings to the show. He's the only one who always seems like he is enjoying himself. And I appreciate it.
In the video clip below, the guys cut to a remote report by Rocket Ismail. There was a problem with the audio feed, and Corso, obviously unaware that his microphone was still on, expressed his thoughts on the subject. (Warning: Not suitable for the young or overly sensitive).
Gotta love Corso.
BCS Set?
The regular season is finally over, and the three big conference championship games definitely lived up to expectations. The SEC game was an instant classic. The Big 12 game showed that Missouri still isn’t ready for the big time. And the ACC game was… Wait. Was there an ACC game? Nobody really cared, including, apparently, Boston College, even though they were in it.
Florida and Alabama played the most entertaining game of the day, by far, with each team seizing momentum on several occasions, only to have it seized back by the opponent. All week long, the “experts” told us that this was a case of power against speed. Florida coach Urban Meyer didn’t think so. These Gators have plenty of toughness too. Florida ended up outrushing Alabama, and won the time of possession battle, essentially beating the Tide at their own game.
Oklahoma made Missouri look like a Pop Warner team, but probably set up a colossal BCS championship game against the Gators, if the computers cooperate.
Why I Like Lee Corso
Over the years, most college football fans have come to rely on ESPN College Gameday for information and entertainment. If you like college football, you know Chris, Kirk and Lee. You may not like them, but you know them.
Back in the day, I kind of liked Chris Fowler. I thought Kirk Herbstreit brought a lot of credibility to the broadcast. And I thought Lee Corso was nothing more than a buffoon. Not so fast, my friend. Over the years, Fowler has said many things that annoyed me. It's been a cumulative effect that has built slowly, but now I dislike him fairly intensely. And, frankly, he reminds me of Fred Flintstone as a young man.
Kirk Herbstreit started off as a fairly likeable guy, but, over the years, started taking himself too seriously, and spending more time editorializing than analyzing. Plus, he's a Buckeye. I hate the Buckeyes.
Lee Corso initially seemed like he was on the set purely for comedic value. And he wasn't funny. But, as my opinion of the others deteriorated, my opinion of Corso took a positive turn. Now, while I may not always agree with him, I enjoy the light-hearted approach he brings to the show. He's the only one who always seems like he is enjoying himself. And I appreciate it.
In the video clip below, the guys cut to a remote report by Rocket Ismail. There was a problem with the audio feed, and Corso, obviously unaware that his microphone was still on, expressed his thoughts on the subject. (Warning: Not suitable for the young or overly sensitive).
Gotta love Corso.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Countdown Until Low Tide
I'm BACK! Illegal Procedure is back just in time for the SEC Championship game. I know there are other games out there tomorrow, but who cares? Seriously, do you think Missouri has a snowball's chance in an eskimo's oven of beating Oklahoma?
I'll probably tune in to the ACC Championship game for a while. I'm a closet BC fan - my uncle and my cousin went there. But, seriously, if they get 20,000 fans at that game in Tampa, I'll be surprised.
And I'll probably try to catch bits and pieces of the other games because, well, even a lousy college football game is still a college football game!
It's quite possible I'll even get my act together and warm up my Crystal Ball. Wonders never cease.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 13)
Red(Faced) Raiders
So I was only wrong on one of my Crystal Ball picks, but BOY was I wrong on that one. Texas Tech showed that the only way to get big game experience is to play in big games. And it’s understandable that you might totally choke in one of the first few. And they choked. They were tight as a drum, and never in the game. From start to finish, Oklahoma dominated. It reminded me of the Gators in ’95. They were clearly better than every team in the nation. Except Nebraska. But the Fiesta Bowl ass-kicking at the hands of the Huskers may have set the Gators up for their national championship run in ’96. You can’t know what it takes to win a big game until you’ve been through it. That was the biggest game in Red Raider history. With any luck, they’ll have more. But what are the odds that Mike Leach will still be there?
How Many More Times for St. Bobby?
I've never been a Bowden fan, for reasons too numerous and inflammatory to list here. But, have you seen one of his pre-game speeches lately? I mean, seriously, I'm surprised his team isn't napping on the sidelines before the kickoff.
This is the week that the Gators take on the Criminoles. And I'm actually glad that whatever cognitive abilities St. Bobby may have had have disappeared in recent years. I hope he coaches for another 25 years. Seriously.
So I was only wrong on one of my Crystal Ball picks, but BOY was I wrong on that one. Texas Tech showed that the only way to get big game experience is to play in big games. And it’s understandable that you might totally choke in one of the first few. And they choked. They were tight as a drum, and never in the game. From start to finish, Oklahoma dominated. It reminded me of the Gators in ’95. They were clearly better than every team in the nation. Except Nebraska. But the Fiesta Bowl ass-kicking at the hands of the Huskers may have set the Gators up for their national championship run in ’96. You can’t know what it takes to win a big game until you’ve been through it. That was the biggest game in Red Raider history. With any luck, they’ll have more. But what are the odds that Mike Leach will still be there?
How Many More Times for St. Bobby?
I've never been a Bowden fan, for reasons too numerous and inflammatory to list here. But, have you seen one of his pre-game speeches lately? I mean, seriously, I'm surprised his team isn't napping on the sidelines before the kickoff.
This is the week that the Gators take on the Criminoles. And I'm actually glad that whatever cognitive abilities St. Bobby may have had have disappeared in recent years. I hope he coaches for another 25 years. Seriously.
Friday, November 21, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Michigan @ #10 Ohio State
In case you’re wondering why you should care about this game, I can’t think of a good reason. Unless you’re a Buckeye fan. As irrelevant as they now seem in the national picture, they can still win the Big 10 and a place in a BCS bowl game with a win over Michigan combined with a Michigan State win over Penn State. Michigan leads the overall series, 57-41-6, but Ohio State has a chance to win five in a row over the Wolverines for the first time ever. The fact that Michigan QB Steven Threet is injured doesn’t help. Ohio State
is a very average team. But they are still better than Michigan.
#15 Michigan State @ #8 Penn State
Michigan State is one of those teams that can’t quite get over the hump. Despite a 9-2 record, they’ve lost to the only decent teams they’ve played – California and Ohio State – and they’ve lost 10 in a row to ranked opponents. An Ohio State win over Michigan, combined with a Michigan State upset of Penn State would put the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. Let’s hope Penn State pulls this one off at home.
#14 BYU @ #7 Utah
This has quietly turned into a very interesting rivalry. These two teams have played 89 times dating back to 1896. Each team has won an even 6 of the last 12 meetings, and 10 of the last 11 have been decided by 7 points or less. BYU’s only loss was at TCU in September. Utah is unbeaten, and playing for the right to play in a BCS bowl. Both teams can pile up the yardage on offense, and both play better defense than you might think. Utah is a touchdown favorite at home, and I like their chances to repeat their BCS-busting performance of 2004.
#21 Oregon State @ Arizona
By virtue of their late September win over USC, Oregon State can win the Pac 10 with wins at Arizona and at home against Oregon to finish the season. You think it’s a big deal to them? Probably. The Beavers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in 44 years. The problem is – Arizona plays well in Tucson. And, while Oregon State is playing for all the Roses, Arizona, bowl eligible at 6-4, is playing to improve their bowl status. The Beavers have won 8 of the last 9 over the Wildcats, for what it’s worth, but Arizona is a field goal favorite at home. I think Orgeon State may be a team on a mission, and I’ll take them in a slight upset. Plus, you have to like any team called the Beavers.
#2 Texas Tech @ #5 Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 59-2 at home under Bob Stoops, and they are a somewhat surprising 7 point favorite in this game. Both teams have been rolling up the yardage and scoring at an amazing rate. And both teams have a respectable ground attack to complement the passing game. But here’s what I think. Every team that makes it to the BCS championship game needs a little luck. Things have to fall into line for you in just the right way, and that has happened for Texas Tech. They beat Nebraska in overtime in early October, and Texas on the game’s last play three weeks ago. They’ve survived the close ones, and, although I think the teams will combine to score 100 or more points, I think the Red Raiders will survive another one.
The Citadel @ #4 Florida
I don’t think there is much suspense here, but, as a Gator fan, I always pick their games. So… I’ll go out on a limb and take Florida.
Michigan @ #10 Ohio State
In case you’re wondering why you should care about this game, I can’t think of a good reason. Unless you’re a Buckeye fan. As irrelevant as they now seem in the national picture, they can still win the Big 10 and a place in a BCS bowl game with a win over Michigan combined with a Michigan State win over Penn State. Michigan leads the overall series, 57-41-6, but Ohio State has a chance to win five in a row over the Wolverines for the first time ever. The fact that Michigan QB Steven Threet is injured doesn’t help. Ohio State
is a very average team. But they are still better than Michigan.
#15 Michigan State @ #8 Penn State
Michigan State is one of those teams that can’t quite get over the hump. Despite a 9-2 record, they’ve lost to the only decent teams they’ve played – California and Ohio State – and they’ve lost 10 in a row to ranked opponents. An Ohio State win over Michigan, combined with a Michigan State upset of Penn State would put the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. Let’s hope Penn State pulls this one off at home.
#14 BYU @ #7 Utah
This has quietly turned into a very interesting rivalry. These two teams have played 89 times dating back to 1896. Each team has won an even 6 of the last 12 meetings, and 10 of the last 11 have been decided by 7 points or less. BYU’s only loss was at TCU in September. Utah is unbeaten, and playing for the right to play in a BCS bowl. Both teams can pile up the yardage on offense, and both play better defense than you might think. Utah is a touchdown favorite at home, and I like their chances to repeat their BCS-busting performance of 2004.
#21 Oregon State @ Arizona
By virtue of their late September win over USC, Oregon State can win the Pac 10 with wins at Arizona and at home against Oregon to finish the season. You think it’s a big deal to them? Probably. The Beavers haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in 44 years. The problem is – Arizona plays well in Tucson. And, while Oregon State is playing for all the Roses, Arizona, bowl eligible at 6-4, is playing to improve their bowl status. The Beavers have won 8 of the last 9 over the Wildcats, for what it’s worth, but Arizona is a field goal favorite at home. I think Orgeon State may be a team on a mission, and I’ll take them in a slight upset. Plus, you have to like any team called the Beavers.
#2 Texas Tech @ #5 Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 59-2 at home under Bob Stoops, and they are a somewhat surprising 7 point favorite in this game. Both teams have been rolling up the yardage and scoring at an amazing rate. And both teams have a respectable ground attack to complement the passing game. But here’s what I think. Every team that makes it to the BCS championship game needs a little luck. Things have to fall into line for you in just the right way, and that has happened for Texas Tech. They beat Nebraska in overtime in early October, and Texas on the game’s last play three weeks ago. They’ve survived the close ones, and, although I think the teams will combine to score 100 or more points, I think the Red Raiders will survive another one.
The Citadel @ #4 Florida
I don’t think there is much suspense here, but, as a Gator fan, I always pick their games. So… I’ll go out on a limb and take Florida.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 12)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
The Almost Competitive Conference
I am not one of those people who wants to spend time whining about a college football playoff. I think the bowl system has been a great thing for college football over the years, and I like the fact that – to steal a line from ESPN – every week matters. Having said that, I do think that the BCS formula could use more tweaking. Conference championships should still be valued and rewarded, but not if the champion of a certain conference… well… sucks. I won’t address the Big East, since they haven’t even risen to the level of mediocrity. But let’s look at the ACC.
This is a league that is loaded with mediocre teams. Six of the twelve teams have identical 7-3 overall records. Three teams were in last week’s BCS rankings, and all three of them lost on Saturday - North Carolina, Florida State and Wake Forest. Maryland could be in command of the Atlantic Division - if they could win more than one road game. They are the only team in the nation to beat four ranked opponents, but it’s a bit scary to think they could be in the ACC Championship game with a loss to Middle Tennessee State on their resume. Miami is atop the Coastal Division at the moment. This Thursday’s game at Georgia Tech could decide who wins that division. And you have to like the Yellow Jackets in that game. That means the loser of the ACC Championship game will have at least four losses, whereas the losers of the Big 12 and SEC title games will have no more than 2 losses, and might have just one. And, if you need one stat that says it all, Florida State’s leading rusher in the loss to Boston College… punter Graham Gano gained 24 yards on a fake punt.
Is there a team to get excited about here? Let me know if you find one. There are still some very important non-conference rivalry games on the slate – Georgia plays at Georgia Tech, Florida State gets Florida in Tallahassee, Clemson goes to South Carolina. Wins in any of those games might restore a shred of luster to the league’s reputation, but it may very well be too little, too late.
The Almost Competitive Conference
I am not one of those people who wants to spend time whining about a college football playoff. I think the bowl system has been a great thing for college football over the years, and I like the fact that – to steal a line from ESPN – every week matters. Having said that, I do think that the BCS formula could use more tweaking. Conference championships should still be valued and rewarded, but not if the champion of a certain conference… well… sucks. I won’t address the Big East, since they haven’t even risen to the level of mediocrity. But let’s look at the ACC.
This is a league that is loaded with mediocre teams. Six of the twelve teams have identical 7-3 overall records. Three teams were in last week’s BCS rankings, and all three of them lost on Saturday - North Carolina, Florida State and Wake Forest. Maryland could be in command of the Atlantic Division - if they could win more than one road game. They are the only team in the nation to beat four ranked opponents, but it’s a bit scary to think they could be in the ACC Championship game with a loss to Middle Tennessee State on their resume. Miami is atop the Coastal Division at the moment. This Thursday’s game at Georgia Tech could decide who wins that division. And you have to like the Yellow Jackets in that game. That means the loser of the ACC Championship game will have at least four losses, whereas the losers of the Big 12 and SEC title games will have no more than 2 losses, and might have just one. And, if you need one stat that says it all, Florida State’s leading rusher in the loss to Boston College… punter Graham Gano gained 24 yards on a fake punt.
Is there a team to get excited about here? Let me know if you find one. There are still some very important non-conference rivalry games on the slate – Georgia plays at Georgia Tech, Florida State gets Florida in Tallahassee, Clemson goes to South Carolina. Wins in any of those games might restore a shred of luster to the league’s reputation, but it may very well be too little, too late.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
No Comment Necessary
As we near the day that Steve Spurrier brings his current team back to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators, I can't help but wonder about the expression on the faces of a certain mom and dad when they saw, for the first time, the things their beloved daughter must do once she became a cheerleader for the University of South Carolina...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 11)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 4)
In the latest colossal Big 12 matchup on Saturday, Oklahoma State went up 7-0 before Texas Tech scored three unanswered touchdowns. Playing from behind, and with a weaker defense than I had even imagined, the Cowboys were doomed early. But, once again, I would like to note that…
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Oklahoma State defense. (76 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas A&M defense. (94 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (65 points scored in that game, a Missouri victory)
Cats and Dawgs. And Gators.
Saturday’s game between Georgia and Kentucky was a classic. Unfortunately, it came down to a bad interception thrown by Kentucky QB Randall Cobb, who had otherwise played a very good game. Georgia survived to win 42-38, but lost in the excitement of this game is an indication of how good Florida’s defense is playing. Georgia and Kentucky combined to score 15 points on Florida’s defense, but they couldn't stop each other from scoring. While they amassed 80 points on each other, Florida destroyed these teams, not just with scary offense, but with great defense, beating Kentucky 63-5 and Georgia 49-10. If you’re wondering why poll voters and BCS pundits are giving Florida the benefit of the doubt in many cases, it’s because it appears, at least at the moment, that the Gators can play offense and defense.
Many Thanks to the Hawkeyes
In another interesting game from this past Saturday, Iowa upset Penn State 24-23 on a last second field goal. While part of me wants JoePa to win as many games as possible before he retires, and, by doing so, ensure that he (not Bobby Bowden) will hold the record for all-time Division I college football wins, I have to admit that the Iowa win may have saved us from having to deal with an unbeaten Penn State team at the end of the year. While an unbeaten team from a major conference has a right to make an argument that they belong in the BCS championship game, I firmly believe that Penn State would lose by 50 to either the Big 12 or SEC champs this year. And I’m not kidding. The loss to Iowa saves the BCS gurus from having to justify why they wanted to leave Penn State on the outside looking in. Sorry, JoePa, but, while this year’s squad may be the best in the Big 10, that’s not saying much.
Playoff Schmayoff
This is the time of year that cynics, critics and complainers from every corner of the nation start complaining about the BCS, and arguing for a playoff in college football. At some point during the offseason, I plan to write at length about the reasons why a college football playoff is a bad idea - and there are many of them. But, for now, let me just point out that any system designed to pick a group of participating teams based on an arbitrary ranking system is bound to continue to create controversy. Some scenarios want an eight team playoff with the 6 BCS league champions, plus the highest-ranked non-BCS league champion and the top-ranked at-large team. So, at least two of the eight teams involved will have their fate decided by the same ranking system that people complain about now. And that seems fair? Every year, there will still be teams that feel they got screwed by the system, no matter how many teams you include in the playoff pool.
The NCAA Basketball Tournament started in 1939 with just 8 teams, but, during the course of eight periods of adjustment and expansion, the tournament grew to include 64 teams by the year 2000 because so many teams who deemed themselves worthwhile over the years were left out by the selection committee. Even with a 64 team field, there were whiners and complainers who felt that they had been screwed, so the NCAA added a 65th team and a play-in game in 2001.
The point is, you could include the top-ranked 60 teams in the FBS (formerly Division I), and teams 60 through 69 would feel that they had somehow been screwed by the rankings. There are many reasons why a playoff would be bad for college football, but I’ll leave you with this reason: the way things are now, every game is a playoff game in college football, and that’s one of the things that make the game so exciting.
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 4)
In the latest colossal Big 12 matchup on Saturday, Oklahoma State went up 7-0 before Texas Tech scored three unanswered touchdowns. Playing from behind, and with a weaker defense than I had even imagined, the Cowboys were doomed early. But, once again, I would like to note that…
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Oklahoma State defense. (76 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas A&M defense. (94 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (65 points scored in that game, a Missouri victory)
Cats and Dawgs. And Gators.
Saturday’s game between Georgia and Kentucky was a classic. Unfortunately, it came down to a bad interception thrown by Kentucky QB Randall Cobb, who had otherwise played a very good game. Georgia survived to win 42-38, but lost in the excitement of this game is an indication of how good Florida’s defense is playing. Georgia and Kentucky combined to score 15 points on Florida’s defense, but they couldn't stop each other from scoring. While they amassed 80 points on each other, Florida destroyed these teams, not just with scary offense, but with great defense, beating Kentucky 63-5 and Georgia 49-10. If you’re wondering why poll voters and BCS pundits are giving Florida the benefit of the doubt in many cases, it’s because it appears, at least at the moment, that the Gators can play offense and defense.
Many Thanks to the Hawkeyes
In another interesting game from this past Saturday, Iowa upset Penn State 24-23 on a last second field goal. While part of me wants JoePa to win as many games as possible before he retires, and, by doing so, ensure that he (not Bobby Bowden) will hold the record for all-time Division I college football wins, I have to admit that the Iowa win may have saved us from having to deal with an unbeaten Penn State team at the end of the year. While an unbeaten team from a major conference has a right to make an argument that they belong in the BCS championship game, I firmly believe that Penn State would lose by 50 to either the Big 12 or SEC champs this year. And I’m not kidding. The loss to Iowa saves the BCS gurus from having to justify why they wanted to leave Penn State on the outside looking in. Sorry, JoePa, but, while this year’s squad may be the best in the Big 10, that’s not saying much.
Playoff Schmayoff
This is the time of year that cynics, critics and complainers from every corner of the nation start complaining about the BCS, and arguing for a playoff in college football. At some point during the offseason, I plan to write at length about the reasons why a college football playoff is a bad idea - and there are many of them. But, for now, let me just point out that any system designed to pick a group of participating teams based on an arbitrary ranking system is bound to continue to create controversy. Some scenarios want an eight team playoff with the 6 BCS league champions, plus the highest-ranked non-BCS league champion and the top-ranked at-large team. So, at least two of the eight teams involved will have their fate decided by the same ranking system that people complain about now. And that seems fair? Every year, there will still be teams that feel they got screwed by the system, no matter how many teams you include in the playoff pool.
The NCAA Basketball Tournament started in 1939 with just 8 teams, but, during the course of eight periods of adjustment and expansion, the tournament grew to include 64 teams by the year 2000 because so many teams who deemed themselves worthwhile over the years were left out by the selection committee. Even with a 64 team field, there were whiners and complainers who felt that they had been screwed, so the NCAA added a 65th team and a play-in game in 2001.
The point is, you could include the top-ranked 60 teams in the FBS (formerly Division I), and teams 60 through 69 would feel that they had somehow been screwed by the rankings. There are many reasons why a playoff would be bad for college football, but I’ll leave you with this reason: the way things are now, every game is a playoff game in college football, and that’s one of the things that make the game so exciting.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
#5 Florida @ Vanderbilt
Florida is a team on a mission. Ever since the home loss to Ole Miss, they’ve been scorching opposing teams on offense, and stuffing them on defense. They’ve outscored their last four opponents 201-43. Vanderbilt, after starting the season 5-0, has lost their last three. They have one of the least potent offenses in the nation. Florida has one of the best defenses. Some people expect a Gator letdown in this game after last week’s demolition of Georgia. But let me repeat – Florida is a team on a mission.
#11 Ohio State @ #24 Northwestern
I hate Ohio State, and I’m glad we have all agreed that the myth of the Sweatervest Juggernaut exists no more. But, while Northwestern has clawed their way to a surprising 7-2 record, they have split with the only decent teams they have played – losing to Michigan State, and winning in overtime at Minnesota last week. I’d love to see Northwestern beat Ohio State. In fact, to be more precise, I’d love to see anyone beat Ohio State. Sadly, I don’t think the Wildcats can pull it off.
#9 Oklahoma State @ #2 Texas Tech
As you know by now, I firmly believe that there is no “D” in Big 12. Still, this is an intriguing game with huge BCS implications. Can Texas Tech remain unbeaten for another week? This is the third time in the last five weeks that Oklahoma State is playing on the road against a team ranked in the top 3. One thing the Cowboys can do better than the Red Raiders is run the ball. I expect a heavy dose of the ground game to wear the Tech defense down, and keep their offense off the field. I like Oklahoma State in this one.
#21 California @ #7 USC
Okay, it’s time I admitted that Cal has the same colors as my high school, so I have some kind of subconscious soft spot for them. Combine that with the fact that I hate USC and there is tremendous temptation to pick an upset here. But this is not 2003 – when USC’s only loss on their way to a national championship was a 34-31 upset at Cal. Unfortunately, the Bears don’t have the muscle to beat Southern Cal at home.
Kansas @ Nebraska
For most of my life, this game would have been a joke, a complete blowout. My, how times have changed. Nebraska has managed to put together a decent passing attack, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. But they are 54th in the nation in rushing, and, for most college football fans, that’s just not Nebraska. Kansas, on the other hand, started the season with great expectations, but lost at South Florida in September, and then lost back to back games to Oklahoma and Texas Tech in October. Amazingly, Nebraska is a 1 point favorite at home. I’ll take Kansas.
#1 Alabama @ #16 LSU
This Alabama team is one that would make the Papa Bear proud. They have a mammoth offensive line paving the way for running backs Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram. Combine that with a QB who makes few mistakes and a solid defense, and you have a recipe for victory. That’s why the Crimson Tide find themselves unbeaten in the second year of the Nick Saban era. LSU is a team that looks to be loaded with athletes but, after a 4-0 start, they are 2-2 in their last four games . While Georgia and Florida trounced LSU, I think the Tigers match up a bit better with the powerful, but slower, Crimson Tide. Alabama is favored by a field goal, and that sounds about right to me. They’ll win it, but it will be close.
#20 Georgia Tech @ #19 North Carolina
This is a fascinating matchup of resurgent teams, both of whom are coming off victories over ranked opponents. Georgia Tech beat Florida State 31-28 last week, thanks to a ‘Nole fumble with :45 remaining. And North Carolina had a bye week after stunning Boston College in Chestnut Hill 45-24. I’d be really tempted to pick the Yellow Jackets on the road in this one, but the health of QB Josh Nebitt’s ankle is uncertain. I’ve got to go with the Tarheels.
Notre Dame at Boston College
This battle of the major Catholic schools looks as fascinating as ever. Both teams have identical 5-3 records, but Notre Dame seems to have improved during the middle half of the season – despite last week’s overtime loss to Pitt – while Boston College has seen their struggles worsen. The oddsmakers have BC as a field goal+ favorite, but I think the Irish sneak away with a win.
#5 Florida @ Vanderbilt
Florida is a team on a mission. Ever since the home loss to Ole Miss, they’ve been scorching opposing teams on offense, and stuffing them on defense. They’ve outscored their last four opponents 201-43. Vanderbilt, after starting the season 5-0, has lost their last three. They have one of the least potent offenses in the nation. Florida has one of the best defenses. Some people expect a Gator letdown in this game after last week’s demolition of Georgia. But let me repeat – Florida is a team on a mission.
#11 Ohio State @ #24 Northwestern
I hate Ohio State, and I’m glad we have all agreed that the myth of the Sweatervest Juggernaut exists no more. But, while Northwestern has clawed their way to a surprising 7-2 record, they have split with the only decent teams they have played – losing to Michigan State, and winning in overtime at Minnesota last week. I’d love to see Northwestern beat Ohio State. In fact, to be more precise, I’d love to see anyone beat Ohio State. Sadly, I don’t think the Wildcats can pull it off.
#9 Oklahoma State @ #2 Texas Tech
As you know by now, I firmly believe that there is no “D” in Big 12. Still, this is an intriguing game with huge BCS implications. Can Texas Tech remain unbeaten for another week? This is the third time in the last five weeks that Oklahoma State is playing on the road against a team ranked in the top 3. One thing the Cowboys can do better than the Red Raiders is run the ball. I expect a heavy dose of the ground game to wear the Tech defense down, and keep their offense off the field. I like Oklahoma State in this one.
#21 California @ #7 USC
Okay, it’s time I admitted that Cal has the same colors as my high school, so I have some kind of subconscious soft spot for them. Combine that with the fact that I hate USC and there is tremendous temptation to pick an upset here. But this is not 2003 – when USC’s only loss on their way to a national championship was a 34-31 upset at Cal. Unfortunately, the Bears don’t have the muscle to beat Southern Cal at home.
Kansas @ Nebraska
For most of my life, this game would have been a joke, a complete blowout. My, how times have changed. Nebraska has managed to put together a decent passing attack, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. But they are 54th in the nation in rushing, and, for most college football fans, that’s just not Nebraska. Kansas, on the other hand, started the season with great expectations, but lost at South Florida in September, and then lost back to back games to Oklahoma and Texas Tech in October. Amazingly, Nebraska is a 1 point favorite at home. I’ll take Kansas.
#1 Alabama @ #16 LSU
This Alabama team is one that would make the Papa Bear proud. They have a mammoth offensive line paving the way for running backs Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram. Combine that with a QB who makes few mistakes and a solid defense, and you have a recipe for victory. That’s why the Crimson Tide find themselves unbeaten in the second year of the Nick Saban era. LSU is a team that looks to be loaded with athletes but, after a 4-0 start, they are 2-2 in their last four games . While Georgia and Florida trounced LSU, I think the Tigers match up a bit better with the powerful, but slower, Crimson Tide. Alabama is favored by a field goal, and that sounds about right to me. They’ll win it, but it will be close.
#20 Georgia Tech @ #19 North Carolina
This is a fascinating matchup of resurgent teams, both of whom are coming off victories over ranked opponents. Georgia Tech beat Florida State 31-28 last week, thanks to a ‘Nole fumble with :45 remaining. And North Carolina had a bye week after stunning Boston College in Chestnut Hill 45-24. I’d be really tempted to pick the Yellow Jackets on the road in this one, but the health of QB Josh Nebitt’s ankle is uncertain. I’ve got to go with the Tarheels.
Notre Dame at Boston College
This battle of the major Catholic schools looks as fascinating as ever. Both teams have identical 5-3 records, but Notre Dame seems to have improved during the middle half of the season – despite last week’s overtime loss to Pitt – while Boston College has seen their struggles worsen. The oddsmakers have BC as a field goal+ favorite, but I think the Irish sneak away with a win.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 10)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Big 12 Defenses Downright Offensive (Part 3)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Nebraska defense. (90 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (73 points scored in that game, a Kansas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas defense. (72 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Is anybody listening? If we can expand on the subject, let’s just agree right now that there is not a single team in the Big 12 playing championship caliber defense. Not one. In addition to the examples above, Missouri gave up 438 yards of total offense to Baylor, a team that ranked 54th in total offense coming into the game. Sure, the Tigers won, but what could a team with a real offense and a real defense do to them?
Huge
But, speaking of the Big 12, what would you have said if, back in the last week of August, somebody had told you that one of the biggest games of the year would be … Oklahoma State at Texas Tech? It’s okay to admit that you would have chuckled and declared that person to be severely delusional. I might have done the same thing. In my mind, though, this game is only big because it will determine which of the top Big 12 teams will be next to fall out of contention for the BCS championship. I’m going to repeat it until one of us (you or me) pukes; the offensive numbers being posted by teams in the Big 12 probably have at least something to do with the fact that the defenses stink.
The Top 10 Club
Statistics can be misleading, but it is interesting to note that there are currently three teams in the nation ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense; Southern California, Florida and Penn State.
Every Dawg Has Its Day
Unfortunately for Georgia, it wasn't Saturday. Below is a short highlight video of the Gator stomping of the Georgia Bulldogs. Even if you had never heard of the game, and didn't know the outcome, I don't think you have to go far into the video before you get an idea what happened. All you need to see is Brandon Spikes' vicious tackle of Knowshon Moreno on the second play from scrimmage (about 20 seconds into the video), and I think you could guess who won. It's hard to watch it without smiling...
You know it's bad when it becomes the subject of the Sunday sermon at UGA...
Big 12 Defenses Downright Offensive (Part 3)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Nebraska defense. (90 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (73 points scored in that game, a Kansas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas defense. (72 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Is anybody listening? If we can expand on the subject, let’s just agree right now that there is not a single team in the Big 12 playing championship caliber defense. Not one. In addition to the examples above, Missouri gave up 438 yards of total offense to Baylor, a team that ranked 54th in total offense coming into the game. Sure, the Tigers won, but what could a team with a real offense and a real defense do to them?
Huge
But, speaking of the Big 12, what would you have said if, back in the last week of August, somebody had told you that one of the biggest games of the year would be … Oklahoma State at Texas Tech? It’s okay to admit that you would have chuckled and declared that person to be severely delusional. I might have done the same thing. In my mind, though, this game is only big because it will determine which of the top Big 12 teams will be next to fall out of contention for the BCS championship. I’m going to repeat it until one of us (you or me) pukes; the offensive numbers being posted by teams in the Big 12 probably have at least something to do with the fact that the defenses stink.
The Top 10 Club
Statistics can be misleading, but it is interesting to note that there are currently three teams in the nation ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense; Southern California, Florida and Penn State.
Every Dawg Has Its Day
Unfortunately for Georgia, it wasn't Saturday. Below is a short highlight video of the Gator stomping of the Georgia Bulldogs. Even if you had never heard of the game, and didn't know the outcome, I don't think you have to go far into the video before you get an idea what happened. All you need to see is Brandon Spikes' vicious tackle of Knowshon Moreno on the second play from scrimmage (about 20 seconds into the video), and I think you could guess who won. It's hard to watch it without smiling...
You know it's bad when it becomes the subject of the Sunday sermon at UGA...
Friday, October 31, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
#8 Florida vs #6 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
Let’s make one thing clear: I hate Georgia. Not just a tad. Not just somewhat. We’re talking a whole freakin’ lot. Although, admittedly, I have a soft spot for Georgia girls… ;) On paper, these are two pretty evenly matched teams. The difference appears to be on defense, where Georgia has been susceptible to big plays, and Florida has improved significantly. Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is the real deal. If the Gators can slow him down better than they did last year (188 yards rushing), they will win.
#1 Texas @ #7 Texas Tech
I’d love to see a Texas Tech win here, just to see the BCS hierarchy shaken up. They score an average of 48 points per game, but their early season competition wasn’t exactly stellar. The tough home stretch starts now. Texas, on the other hand, has faced opponents ranked 11th or better in each of their previous three games. They are tested, but are they tired as well? I think so. I’m going to take the Red Raiders.
Wisconsin @ #21 Michigan State
I decided to pick this game because it gave me a chance to repeat, yet again, the fact that Wisconsin is so consistently over-rated at the beginning of each season it makes me want to vomit. This is a team that was in most top 10 rankings in August, and, in some people’s top 5. Why?? Repeat after me. Badgers? We don’t need no stinking Badgers. They are now 4-4, and little more than an afterthought. Kind of like a nasty burp after a Taco Bell combo meal. Michigan State absolutely imploded in their loss to Ohio State two weeks ago, but rebounded to win at Michigan. I am by no means a Spartans fan, but I think they win this one.
Nebraska @ #4 Oklahoma
Remember when this game used to be huge? The winner of this game pretty much always won the old Big 8 and ended up in the Orange Bowl. Oklahoma, under Bob Stoops has regained the status they enjoyed in earlier glory years. And Nebraska… hasn’t. All eyes will be on the big games in Jacksonville and Lubbock while the Sooners take care of business.
#15 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
I hate Florida State, but they’ve very quietly crept back into the Top 25 after losing to Wake Forest on September 20th. The ‘Noles have often been just a bit susceptible to teams that can line up and right right at them. And that’s what Georgia Tech will do. Bobby Bowden is looking for his 13th straight win over the Yellow Jackets. I don’t think he’s going to get it.
#24 Oregon @ California
Will the real California team please stand up? What will we see Saturday? The team that beat Michigan State in the home opener, and pounded UCLA last week? Or the team that was physically dominated by Maryland and Arizona? When Oregon gets their offense going, they are hard to beat, but their defense has struggled at times. Cal seems to be a better team at home, and, unfortunately for the Ducks, this game is in Berkley.
Northwestern @ #17 Minnesota
This is an interesting matchup of two teams that have clearly exceeded expectations this year. Northwestern is 6-2. After going 1-11 last year and surrendering almost 37 points per game, Minnesota is 7-1, and allowing just 17 points per game. Northwestern started the season 6-1, but lost last week, inexplicably, to a pretty lousy Indiana team. In that loss, RB Tyrell Sutton sustained a season-ending wrist injury. After this week’s game, the Wildcats finish the season with games against Ohio State, @ Michigan and Illinois. They could finish 6-6 because the Gophers will take this one.
Miami @ Virginia
Virginia started the season 1-3, including a 31-3 thrashing at the hands of the mighty Duke Blue Devils. But since then, they’ve won four straight. When RB Cedric Peerman got healthy, things seemed to turn around. Are they good enough to beat a mediocre Miami team? They may be without starting fullback Rashawn Jackson, who was arrested this week on larceny and breaking and entering charges dating back to last year. Miami has problems at the QB position, and their offensive production is way down as a result. But the defense is currently 15th in the nation. In the interest of fairness, I should admit that I hate Miami. And I’ll take Virginia in this one.
#8 Florida vs #6 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
Let’s make one thing clear: I hate Georgia. Not just a tad. Not just somewhat. We’re talking a whole freakin’ lot. Although, admittedly, I have a soft spot for Georgia girls… ;) On paper, these are two pretty evenly matched teams. The difference appears to be on defense, where Georgia has been susceptible to big plays, and Florida has improved significantly. Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is the real deal. If the Gators can slow him down better than they did last year (188 yards rushing), they will win.
#1 Texas @ #7 Texas Tech
I’d love to see a Texas Tech win here, just to see the BCS hierarchy shaken up. They score an average of 48 points per game, but their early season competition wasn’t exactly stellar. The tough home stretch starts now. Texas, on the other hand, has faced opponents ranked 11th or better in each of their previous three games. They are tested, but are they tired as well? I think so. I’m going to take the Red Raiders.
Wisconsin @ #21 Michigan State
I decided to pick this game because it gave me a chance to repeat, yet again, the fact that Wisconsin is so consistently over-rated at the beginning of each season it makes me want to vomit. This is a team that was in most top 10 rankings in August, and, in some people’s top 5. Why?? Repeat after me. Badgers? We don’t need no stinking Badgers. They are now 4-4, and little more than an afterthought. Kind of like a nasty burp after a Taco Bell combo meal. Michigan State absolutely imploded in their loss to Ohio State two weeks ago, but rebounded to win at Michigan. I am by no means a Spartans fan, but I think they win this one.
Nebraska @ #4 Oklahoma
Remember when this game used to be huge? The winner of this game pretty much always won the old Big 8 and ended up in the Orange Bowl. Oklahoma, under Bob Stoops has regained the status they enjoyed in earlier glory years. And Nebraska… hasn’t. All eyes will be on the big games in Jacksonville and Lubbock while the Sooners take care of business.
#15 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
I hate Florida State, but they’ve very quietly crept back into the Top 25 after losing to Wake Forest on September 20th. The ‘Noles have often been just a bit susceptible to teams that can line up and right right at them. And that’s what Georgia Tech will do. Bobby Bowden is looking for his 13th straight win over the Yellow Jackets. I don’t think he’s going to get it.
#24 Oregon @ California
Will the real California team please stand up? What will we see Saturday? The team that beat Michigan State in the home opener, and pounded UCLA last week? Or the team that was physically dominated by Maryland and Arizona? When Oregon gets their offense going, they are hard to beat, but their defense has struggled at times. Cal seems to be a better team at home, and, unfortunately for the Ducks, this game is in Berkley.
Northwestern @ #17 Minnesota
This is an interesting matchup of two teams that have clearly exceeded expectations this year. Northwestern is 6-2. After going 1-11 last year and surrendering almost 37 points per game, Minnesota is 7-1, and allowing just 17 points per game. Northwestern started the season 6-1, but lost last week, inexplicably, to a pretty lousy Indiana team. In that loss, RB Tyrell Sutton sustained a season-ending wrist injury. After this week’s game, the Wildcats finish the season with games against Ohio State, @ Michigan and Illinois. They could finish 6-6 because the Gophers will take this one.
Miami @ Virginia
Virginia started the season 1-3, including a 31-3 thrashing at the hands of the mighty Duke Blue Devils. But since then, they’ve won four straight. When RB Cedric Peerman got healthy, things seemed to turn around. Are they good enough to beat a mediocre Miami team? They may be without starting fullback Rashawn Jackson, who was arrested this week on larceny and breaking and entering charges dating back to last year. Miami has problems at the QB position, and their offensive production is way down as a result. But the defense is currently 15th in the nation. In the interest of fairness, I should admit that I hate Miami. And I’ll take Virginia in this one.
Sometimes You Just Need A Hug
Every now and then, something happens that restores my faith in humanity. Sadly, the effect doesn't last long, but I still appreciate it at the time. In last night's Cincinnati win over South Florida, Bearcat wide reciever Mardy Gilyard streaked into the endzone in pursuit of a long pass from quarterback Tony Pike. Gilyard caught the pass out of bounds and his momentum carried him into the stands where he crashed into 7 yeard old Garrett Monroe, who ended up in tears - probably more scared than hurt. Gilyard's instinctive reaction might brighten your day, at least for an hour...
As it turned out, the kid was interviewed by ESPN's Erin Andrews, and, by the end of the game, was signing autographs! Go figure... Game recap, and additional video can be found here.
As it turned out, the kid was interviewed by ESPN's Erin Andrews, and, by the end of the game, was signing autographs! Go figure... Game recap, and additional video can be found here.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Non-S Conference
I've decided to do something a bit different. I'm creating my own college football conference. Nobody will care, except me, and even that is questionable. It will be a new conference of old teams, so technically it's not even totally new.
But I thought it would be fun to track an imaginary league consisting of the 12 teams whose names don't end in "s." You remember these, right? Of course you do. This was the subject of a world famous Illegal Procedure blog entry back in August. Click here to be reminded.
Here's my inaugural Non-S Conference Report...
Alabama (Crimson Tide) [8-0 overall, 5-0 in the SEC West] – Beat Tennessee in Knoxville, 29-9. Up next? A home game against Arkansas State.
Illinois (Fighting Illini) [4-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten] – Lost at Wisconsin 27-17. Next up? A home game against Iowa.
Marshall (Thundering Herd) [3-4 overall, 2-1 in Conference USA] – In their last game on October 18th, they lost to UAB 23-21. This Tuesday, they host Houston.
Navy (Midshipmen) [5-3 overall, independent] —Beat SMU 34-7 in a game in which they didn’t attempt a single pass – the first time since 1997 that a Division I team went through an entire game without a pass. Next up? A home game against Temple.
Nevada (Wolfpack) [4-4, 2-2 in the WAC] – Lost at Hawaii 38-31. Next up? At Fresno State on November 7th.
NC State (Wolfpack) [2-6 overall, 0-4 in the Atlantic Division of the ACC] – Lost at Maryland 27-24. Next up? At Duke on November 8th.
North Texas (Mean Green) [0-8 overall, 0-4 in the Sunbelt Conference] – Lost to Troy 45-17. Next up? At Western Kentucky.
Notre Dame (Fighting Irish) [5-2 overall, independent] – Beat Washington 33-7. Next up? A home game against Pittsburgh.
Stanford (Cardinal) [4-4, 3-3 in the PAC 10] – Lost at UCLA 23-20 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Washington State.
Syracuse (Orangemen) [1-6 overall, 0-3 in the Big East]– Lost at South Florida 45-13 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Louisville.
Tulane (Green Wave) [2-5 overall, 1-3 in Conference USA] – Lost at home to Rice 42-17. Next up? At LSU.
Tulsa (Golden Hurricane) [7-4 overall, 4-0 in Conference USA] – Beat UTEP at home 77-35 on October 18th. Next up? UCF on October 26th.
But I thought it would be fun to track an imaginary league consisting of the 12 teams whose names don't end in "s." You remember these, right? Of course you do. This was the subject of a world famous Illegal Procedure blog entry back in August. Click here to be reminded.
Here's my inaugural Non-S Conference Report...
Alabama (Crimson Tide) [8-0 overall, 5-0 in the SEC West] – Beat Tennessee in Knoxville, 29-9. Up next? A home game against Arkansas State.
Illinois (Fighting Illini) [4-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten] – Lost at Wisconsin 27-17. Next up? A home game against Iowa.
Marshall (Thundering Herd) [3-4 overall, 2-1 in Conference USA] – In their last game on October 18th, they lost to UAB 23-21. This Tuesday, they host Houston.
Navy (Midshipmen) [5-3 overall, independent] —Beat SMU 34-7 in a game in which they didn’t attempt a single pass – the first time since 1997 that a Division I team went through an entire game without a pass. Next up? A home game against Temple.
Nevada (Wolfpack) [4-4, 2-2 in the WAC] – Lost at Hawaii 38-31. Next up? At Fresno State on November 7th.
NC State (Wolfpack) [2-6 overall, 0-4 in the Atlantic Division of the ACC] – Lost at Maryland 27-24. Next up? At Duke on November 8th.
North Texas (Mean Green) [0-8 overall, 0-4 in the Sunbelt Conference] – Lost to Troy 45-17. Next up? At Western Kentucky.
Notre Dame (Fighting Irish) [5-2 overall, independent] – Beat Washington 33-7. Next up? A home game against Pittsburgh.
Stanford (Cardinal) [4-4, 3-3 in the PAC 10] – Lost at UCLA 23-20 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Washington State.
Syracuse (Orangemen) [1-6 overall, 0-3 in the Big East]– Lost at South Florida 45-13 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Louisville.
Tulane (Green Wave) [2-5 overall, 1-3 in Conference USA] – Lost at home to Rice 42-17. Next up? At LSU.
Tulsa (Golden Hurricane) [7-4 overall, 4-0 in Conference USA] – Beat UTEP at home 77-35 on October 18th. Next up? UCF on October 26th.
Monday, October 27, 2008
UGA Beware
Once again, for those of you who know me, you know that I am a Gator fan. If you didn't know that, well, you do now.
I'm also an animal lover. Not a card-carrying member of PETA, mind you. But I find it virtually impossible to kill anything larger than a mosquito, and I tend to be fond of almost any kind of animal that we humans have domesticated over the last 10,000 years or so.
But this week is a special week. An unusual week. It is a time when a surpisingly large share of my attention is focused on the demise of one single, mangy mutt. By 6:30 Saturday afternoon, I hope to see the famous University of Georgia mascot looking something like this...
All I can say is, UGA beware.
Countdown to UGA's Demise
Dawg Dance
In case anyone needs a reminder, the Georgia Bulldawgs celebrated their first touchdown in last year's game in a way that was remarkably classless, even for them. And, despite head coach Mark Richt's subsequent attempts to deny that the event was pre-meditated, we know differently...
World's Largest Outdoor... Something or Other
Speaking of THAT game in Jacksonville, I can kind of understand the reluctance of both schools' administrations to refer to the game by its decades-old nickname. I mean, there is no need for them to offically endorse it. But, come on. It is what it is. If you've never been, I highly recommend it. There is no other atmosphere like the one surrounding that stadium before the game, and inside that stadium during the game.
And, let's get real. It IS the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
I'm also an animal lover. Not a card-carrying member of PETA, mind you. But I find it virtually impossible to kill anything larger than a mosquito, and I tend to be fond of almost any kind of animal that we humans have domesticated over the last 10,000 years or so.
But this week is a special week. An unusual week. It is a time when a surpisingly large share of my attention is focused on the demise of one single, mangy mutt. By 6:30 Saturday afternoon, I hope to see the famous University of Georgia mascot looking something like this...
All I can say is, UGA beware.
Countdown to UGA's Demise
Dawg Dance
In case anyone needs a reminder, the Georgia Bulldawgs celebrated their first touchdown in last year's game in a way that was remarkably classless, even for them. And, despite head coach Mark Richt's subsequent attempts to deny that the event was pre-meditated, we know differently...
World's Largest Outdoor... Something or Other
Speaking of THAT game in Jacksonville, I can kind of understand the reluctance of both schools' administrations to refer to the game by its decades-old nickname. I mean, there is no need for them to offically endorse it. But, come on. It is what it is. If you've never been, I highly recommend it. There is no other atmosphere like the one surrounding that stadium before the game, and inside that stadium during the game.
And, let's get real. It IS the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 9)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 2)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (93 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (84 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Okay, I know this gets repetitive. But this WILL come back to haunt the Big 12 champion if they get to the BCS Championship game. Texas is the only one of the ranked teams in the league that plays some semblance of defense, and, for that, they deserve some credit. I suppose.
Do the Lions Really Bite?
I watched Penn State beat Ohio State Saturday night. National media pundits are lining up to support JoePa, and boost them into the BCS Championship game with their best wishes. Sure, it was a hostile environment. But, if you watched the game, really watched the game, you know that Ohio State just isn’t that good. The key play – early in the fourth quarter, with the Buckeyes nursing a 6-3 lead in a ferocious defensive struggle, quarterback Terrelle Pryor carried on a third and 1 from their own 38 yard line. With the middle of the line clogged, Pryor slid to his right, and caught a glimpse of the Penn State endzone in the distance. Trying to make the big play, he forgot to secure the ball. Penn State defensive back Mark Rubin punched the ball loose, and linebacker Navorro Bowman fell on it. Given a short field, Penn State scored the game’s only touchdown and held on to win.
Pryor explained after the game, ''I just didn't hold the ball. I saw the end zone. It was there and the ball just fell out. I thought I was on my way to a touchdown but I just lost the ball. As soon as I fumbled it, I knew they would score.''
What is the point of all this, you ask? Ohio State is 95th in the nation in total offense, and I just don’t think they are very good. Penn State did what they needed to do, but that one play really changed the game. What if Pryor had held onto the ball, turned upfield and scampered all the way down the field for a touchdown? We’d be talking about how over-rated Penn State was. So, let’s keep this in perspective. They won. But they’re still over-rated.
The Burning Sunday Question
Is it wrong to wash down vitamins with beer?
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 2)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (93 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (84 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Okay, I know this gets repetitive. But this WILL come back to haunt the Big 12 champion if they get to the BCS Championship game. Texas is the only one of the ranked teams in the league that plays some semblance of defense, and, for that, they deserve some credit. I suppose.
Do the Lions Really Bite?
I watched Penn State beat Ohio State Saturday night. National media pundits are lining up to support JoePa, and boost them into the BCS Championship game with their best wishes. Sure, it was a hostile environment. But, if you watched the game, really watched the game, you know that Ohio State just isn’t that good. The key play – early in the fourth quarter, with the Buckeyes nursing a 6-3 lead in a ferocious defensive struggle, quarterback Terrelle Pryor carried on a third and 1 from their own 38 yard line. With the middle of the line clogged, Pryor slid to his right, and caught a glimpse of the Penn State endzone in the distance. Trying to make the big play, he forgot to secure the ball. Penn State defensive back Mark Rubin punched the ball loose, and linebacker Navorro Bowman fell on it. Given a short field, Penn State scored the game’s only touchdown and held on to win.
Pryor explained after the game, ''I just didn't hold the ball. I saw the end zone. It was there and the ball just fell out. I thought I was on my way to a touchdown but I just lost the ball. As soon as I fumbled it, I knew they would score.''
What is the point of all this, you ask? Ohio State is 95th in the nation in total offense, and I just don’t think they are very good. Penn State did what they needed to do, but that one play really changed the game. What if Pryor had held onto the ball, turned upfield and scampered all the way down the field for a touchdown? We’d be talking about how over-rated Penn State was. So, let’s keep this in perspective. They won. But they’re still over-rated.
The Burning Sunday Question
Is it wrong to wash down vitamins with beer?
Saturday, October 25, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
So I’m a bit late getting these picks done this weekend. Hey, I have a life. What’s your excuse? Don’t worry. I made these picks early, and I have witnesses.
Virginia Tech @ #25 Florida State
Florida State is 5-1 and continuing to improve. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and in need of a win to keep pace in the race for the Coastal Division of the ACC. Unfortunately, this is just the kind of game the stinking Seminoles win.
Kentucky @ #10 Florida
Florida’s offense seems to be clicking, and Kentucky, after starting the season 4-0, has been riddled with injuries as they hit the meat of their schedule. Florida, at home, is too much for the Wildcats.
#2 Alabama @ Tennessee
Tennessee is not very good. They are 3-4, and haven’t beaten a ranked team this year. They need to win 3 of their remaining 5 games just to be bowl eligible. Alabama won last year in Tuscaloosa, but haven’t beaten the Vols in consecutive years since ’91-’92. Amazingly, second ranked, unbeaten Alabama is only a 4 point favorite. I’m going to roll with the Tide.
#7 Georgia @ 13 LSU
This is a tough gamed to call. A loss for either team will all but eliminate them from the national championship race, and damage their hopes for a division title. LSU’s defense is allegedly loaded with superior athletes, but they haven’t been playing like it. Georgia coach Mark Richt is 28-3in games away from Athens. As much as it pains me to admit it, that’s pretty impressive.
#3 Penn State @ #9 Ohio State
Penn State is 8-0, and has all the alleged experts wetting themselves over the resurgence of JoePa. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State in Columbus in the seven times they’ve played since joining the Big 10 in 1993. On the other hand, a win in this game would go a long way toward restoring Ohio State’s tarnished reputation. Logic would say pick Penn State. So I’m taking Ohio State.
#5 USC @ Arizona
Arizona is 5-2, and their 42-27 pounding of Cal last week has given rise to renewed optimism in Tucson. The Wildcats are ninth in the nation in scoring, and think they might be able to keep up with USC. The Trojans are heavy favorites in this one. I hate USC, but I think they win this one.
So I’m a bit late getting these picks done this weekend. Hey, I have a life. What’s your excuse? Don’t worry. I made these picks early, and I have witnesses.
Virginia Tech @ #25 Florida State
Florida State is 5-1 and continuing to improve. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and in need of a win to keep pace in the race for the Coastal Division of the ACC. Unfortunately, this is just the kind of game the stinking Seminoles win.
Kentucky @ #10 Florida
Florida’s offense seems to be clicking, and Kentucky, after starting the season 4-0, has been riddled with injuries as they hit the meat of their schedule. Florida, at home, is too much for the Wildcats.
#2 Alabama @ Tennessee
Tennessee is not very good. They are 3-4, and haven’t beaten a ranked team this year. They need to win 3 of their remaining 5 games just to be bowl eligible. Alabama won last year in Tuscaloosa, but haven’t beaten the Vols in consecutive years since ’91-’92. Amazingly, second ranked, unbeaten Alabama is only a 4 point favorite. I’m going to roll with the Tide.
#7 Georgia @ 13 LSU
This is a tough gamed to call. A loss for either team will all but eliminate them from the national championship race, and damage their hopes for a division title. LSU’s defense is allegedly loaded with superior athletes, but they haven’t been playing like it. Georgia coach Mark Richt is 28-3in games away from Athens. As much as it pains me to admit it, that’s pretty impressive.
#3 Penn State @ #9 Ohio State
Penn State is 8-0, and has all the alleged experts wetting themselves over the resurgence of JoePa. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State in Columbus in the seven times they’ve played since joining the Big 10 in 1993. On the other hand, a win in this game would go a long way toward restoring Ohio State’s tarnished reputation. Logic would say pick Penn State. So I’m taking Ohio State.
#5 USC @ Arizona
Arizona is 5-2, and their 42-27 pounding of Cal last week has given rise to renewed optimism in Tucson. The Wildcats are ninth in the nation in scoring, and think they might be able to keep up with USC. The Trojans are heavy favorites in this one. I hate USC, but I think they win this one.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 8)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Patting Myself on the Back
This week I was 8-2 on my Crystal Ball picks. Last week I was 8-2. The week before that I was 10-0. That brings my season total to 52-19, and I don't pick any easy ones. I'm saying that's pretty freakin' good. Hey, if I don't pat myself on the back, who else will do it?
There Are Some Things You Just Can't Hide
Sometimes you can hide things. Sometimes you can't. If you're a defensive coordinator in the Big 12, I'm thinking you can't really hide the gaping holes in your defense.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Missouri defense. (87 total points scored in that game, a Texas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (76 total points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas Tech defense. (68 total points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Stop me if this gets repetitive.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the…
Okay, I’ll stop. But, hopefully, you get the point. I think we can now confirm that they do not play defense in the Big 12, and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass if one of their teams should somehow earn the right to play in the BCS Championship game.
Pre-Game Meal Not Enough?
I'm not sure what to say about this, other than the fact that Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel probably had a hard time getting his girlfriend to kiss him after this video hit the internet...
Patting Myself on the Back
This week I was 8-2 on my Crystal Ball picks. Last week I was 8-2. The week before that I was 10-0. That brings my season total to 52-19, and I don't pick any easy ones. I'm saying that's pretty freakin' good. Hey, if I don't pat myself on the back, who else will do it?
There Are Some Things You Just Can't Hide
Sometimes you can hide things. Sometimes you can't. If you're a defensive coordinator in the Big 12, I'm thinking you can't really hide the gaping holes in your defense.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Missouri defense. (87 total points scored in that game, a Texas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (76 total points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas Tech defense. (68 total points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Stop me if this gets repetitive.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the…
Okay, I’ll stop. But, hopefully, you get the point. I think we can now confirm that they do not play defense in the Big 12, and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass if one of their teams should somehow earn the right to play in the BCS Championship game.
Pre-Game Meal Not Enough?
I'm not sure what to say about this, other than the fact that Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel probably had a hard time getting his girlfriend to kiss him after this video hit the internet...
Friday, October 17, 2008
A Friday Night Thought
As I sat here on this Friday evening, waiting for another great weekend of college football, a thought dawned on me, and I decided I should share it with you. It's kind of one of those chicken or the egg things, but it actually has to do with football.
There is always talk about which of the major conferences is the best, and most people agree that the SEC, year in and year out, is the better league. There has been tons of talk about the offenses and the quarterbacks in the Big 12 this season. And rightfully so. Colt McCoy at Texas, Chase Daniel at Missouri, Sam Bradford at Oklahoma, Todd Reesing at Kansas, Graham Harrell at Texas Tech, and even the play of Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State, although their ground game powers their offense. The list goes on and on. Six Big 12 teams rank #21 or higher in terms of total offense. That's pretty impressive. Not surprisingly, none of their teams are in the top 21 in terms of total defense.
Then I looked at the SEC, where most people have the impression that the offenses are struggling this year. Wouldn't you know... No SEC team is ranked in the top 21 in terms of total offense. But seven SEC teams are ranked #21 or higher in terms of total defense.
So it makes me wonder. Are the offenses in the Big 12 really that good? Or are the defenses just that bad? And, conversely, are the offenses in the SEC really struggling? Or are the defenses just that good?
And it got me thinking about the end of the 2006 season, when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-39, and, essentially, secured their right to play for the national championship. Almost all of the experts called the game an instant classic, a stunning display by two great teams. But I remember clearly one voice - CBS color commentator Gary Danielson - who said, "To me it looked like two teams with lousy defenses."
What happened in the end? That Ohio State team, averaging 36 points per game in the regular season, scored a mere 14 points in the BCS Championship game - and 7 of those points came on the opening kick return - against SEC champion Florida, a team with a great defense.
It makes you wonder about the Big 12, doesn't it?
There is always talk about which of the major conferences is the best, and most people agree that the SEC, year in and year out, is the better league. There has been tons of talk about the offenses and the quarterbacks in the Big 12 this season. And rightfully so. Colt McCoy at Texas, Chase Daniel at Missouri, Sam Bradford at Oklahoma, Todd Reesing at Kansas, Graham Harrell at Texas Tech, and even the play of Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State, although their ground game powers their offense. The list goes on and on. Six Big 12 teams rank #21 or higher in terms of total offense. That's pretty impressive. Not surprisingly, none of their teams are in the top 21 in terms of total defense.
Then I looked at the SEC, where most people have the impression that the offenses are struggling this year. Wouldn't you know... No SEC team is ranked in the top 21 in terms of total offense. But seven SEC teams are ranked #21 or higher in terms of total defense.
So it makes me wonder. Are the offenses in the Big 12 really that good? Or are the defenses just that bad? And, conversely, are the offenses in the SEC really struggling? Or are the defenses just that good?
And it got me thinking about the end of the 2006 season, when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-39, and, essentially, secured their right to play for the national championship. Almost all of the experts called the game an instant classic, a stunning display by two great teams. But I remember clearly one voice - CBS color commentator Gary Danielson - who said, "To me it looked like two teams with lousy defenses."
What happened in the end? That Ohio State team, averaging 36 points per game in the regular season, scored a mere 14 points in the BCS Championship game - and 7 of those points came on the opening kick return - against SEC champion Florida, a team with a great defense.
It makes you wonder about the Big 12, doesn't it?
Thursday, October 16, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
#9 BYU @ TCU
Can you tell me the last time BYU lost a game? I’ll give you a hint. It was September 15, 2007. Okay. I gave you the answer. But they do own the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Both of these teams have remarkable statistical stories to tell. BYU leads the nation in 3rd down efficiency (61%) and is 3rd in the nation in fewest sacks allowed (.33 per game). BYU is 2nd in the nation in scoring defense. TCU is 9th. TCU leads the nation in rushing defense, giving up an amazing average of just under 21 yards per game. What does all that mean? I have no idea. I’ll take TCU at home. Plus, how can you not like a team named the Horned Frogs?
Florida State @ NC State
I hate Florida State. But NC State is 2-4, with their two impressive wins coming over William & Mary and an overtime contest against East Carolina. And Florida State’s offense seems to be coming around. The 'Noles win this one.
#21 Wake Forest @ Maryland
This is an interesting game. A Wake Forest win would leave them clearly in command of the ACC’s Atlantic Division race. It all depends which Maryland team shows up. The one that manhandled California and won at Clemson? Or the one that lost to Middle Tennessee State and got shut out by a pretty lousy Virginia team? If the first Terps team shows up they can win this game. And, after last week’s embarrassment in Charlottesville, I think they will. Wake Forest has been struggling to score touchdowns, and it’s got to come back and bite them soon, especially with reliable place kicker Sam Swank out with a bad leg.
#10 Georgia @ #22 Vanderbilt
I hope the Commodores enjoyed the 5-0 start and all the notoriety that came with it. ESPN Gameday in Nashville? Who would have thought? But now they’re into the meat of their schedule. If you had asked head coach Bobby Johnson, I’m sure he would have told you that, heading into the season, he had chalked last week’s game up as a win. But Vandy managed just 107 yards of total offense. And a struggling offense is not what you need when the Dawgs are coming to town.
Baylor @ #8 Oklahoma State
I’ve had a long-standing tendency to like Oklahoma State, and I’m not really sure why. I think it goes back to the times that the Cowboys snuck up and beat Oklahoma in ‘97 and ’98. And, just for the record, I hate Oklahoma. Will Oklahoma State have a letdown after their upset of Missouri? It seems likely. Is Baylor good enough to take advantage of it? Yes. Will they? No. By the way, in case you’re wondering when was the last time that Baylor beat Oklahoma State… it was on October 7th. In 1939.
#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State
Wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin led people to believe that QB Terrelle Pryor really had injected some much-needed energy into the offense. Then came last week’s win over Purdue – a game in which the Buckeyes managed just 222 yards of offense against one of the nation's lesser defenses. Meanwhile, Michigan State has won 6 in a row after a season opening road loss to California, and RB Javon Ringer has been impressive. But the Spartan defense has been less than stellar. Still, I like the Spartans at home. And, for the record, I hate Ohio State.
#16 Kansas @ #4 Oklahoma
Oklahoma owns the nation’s longest home win streak. Their defense has been far from overwhelming, and now middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, arguably their best defensive player, is expected to miss the rest of the season after tearing a knee ligament last week against Texas. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is a great player, but I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough offense to beat Oklahoma at home, especially with the Sooners coming off of last week’s upset loss to Texas.
#13 LSU @ South Carolina
When Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have won this season, it has been, somewhat surprisingly, with defense. They are 3rd in the nation in total defense. If they can keep this one close, and keep the score in the teens, they’ll have a shot at the upset. But LSU still has the great athletes they’ve always had, and should be a bit fired up after getting trounced by Florida last week.
Michigan @ #3 Penn State
Lots of people are climbing on the Penn State bandwagon. I’m not ready quite yet. But, let’s face it, this Michigan team is surprisingly lousy. Their offense ranks 109th in the nation. Penn State has lost 9 in a row to Michigan, but I don’t expect the streak to reach 10.
#11 Missouri @ #1 Texas
This is an upset waiting to happen, isn’t it? Texas coming off a huge win. Missouri coming off a disappointing loss. Both offenses are excellent, but Missouri’s Chase Daniel isn’t likely to have two bad games in a row, is he? Not that he was BAD in the loss to Oklahoma State – he passed for almost 400 yards, but he threw three second half interceptions. Colt McCoy was brilliant in the Longhorns’ win over Oklahoma. Can’t you see the roles reversing this week? Can’t you?
#9 BYU @ TCU
Can you tell me the last time BYU lost a game? I’ll give you a hint. It was September 15, 2007. Okay. I gave you the answer. But they do own the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Both of these teams have remarkable statistical stories to tell. BYU leads the nation in 3rd down efficiency (61%) and is 3rd in the nation in fewest sacks allowed (.33 per game). BYU is 2nd in the nation in scoring defense. TCU is 9th. TCU leads the nation in rushing defense, giving up an amazing average of just under 21 yards per game. What does all that mean? I have no idea. I’ll take TCU at home. Plus, how can you not like a team named the Horned Frogs?
Florida State @ NC State
I hate Florida State. But NC State is 2-4, with their two impressive wins coming over William & Mary and an overtime contest against East Carolina. And Florida State’s offense seems to be coming around. The 'Noles win this one.
#21 Wake Forest @ Maryland
This is an interesting game. A Wake Forest win would leave them clearly in command of the ACC’s Atlantic Division race. It all depends which Maryland team shows up. The one that manhandled California and won at Clemson? Or the one that lost to Middle Tennessee State and got shut out by a pretty lousy Virginia team? If the first Terps team shows up they can win this game. And, after last week’s embarrassment in Charlottesville, I think they will. Wake Forest has been struggling to score touchdowns, and it’s got to come back and bite them soon, especially with reliable place kicker Sam Swank out with a bad leg.
#10 Georgia @ #22 Vanderbilt
I hope the Commodores enjoyed the 5-0 start and all the notoriety that came with it. ESPN Gameday in Nashville? Who would have thought? But now they’re into the meat of their schedule. If you had asked head coach Bobby Johnson, I’m sure he would have told you that, heading into the season, he had chalked last week’s game up as a win. But Vandy managed just 107 yards of total offense. And a struggling offense is not what you need when the Dawgs are coming to town.
Baylor @ #8 Oklahoma State
I’ve had a long-standing tendency to like Oklahoma State, and I’m not really sure why. I think it goes back to the times that the Cowboys snuck up and beat Oklahoma in ‘97 and ’98. And, just for the record, I hate Oklahoma. Will Oklahoma State have a letdown after their upset of Missouri? It seems likely. Is Baylor good enough to take advantage of it? Yes. Will they? No. By the way, in case you’re wondering when was the last time that Baylor beat Oklahoma State… it was on October 7th. In 1939.
#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State
Wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin led people to believe that QB Terrelle Pryor really had injected some much-needed energy into the offense. Then came last week’s win over Purdue – a game in which the Buckeyes managed just 222 yards of offense against one of the nation's lesser defenses. Meanwhile, Michigan State has won 6 in a row after a season opening road loss to California, and RB Javon Ringer has been impressive. But the Spartan defense has been less than stellar. Still, I like the Spartans at home. And, for the record, I hate Ohio State.
#16 Kansas @ #4 Oklahoma
Oklahoma owns the nation’s longest home win streak. Their defense has been far from overwhelming, and now middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, arguably their best defensive player, is expected to miss the rest of the season after tearing a knee ligament last week against Texas. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is a great player, but I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough offense to beat Oklahoma at home, especially with the Sooners coming off of last week’s upset loss to Texas.
#13 LSU @ South Carolina
When Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have won this season, it has been, somewhat surprisingly, with defense. They are 3rd in the nation in total defense. If they can keep this one close, and keep the score in the teens, they’ll have a shot at the upset. But LSU still has the great athletes they’ve always had, and should be a bit fired up after getting trounced by Florida last week.
Michigan @ #3 Penn State
Lots of people are climbing on the Penn State bandwagon. I’m not ready quite yet. But, let’s face it, this Michigan team is surprisingly lousy. Their offense ranks 109th in the nation. Penn State has lost 9 in a row to Michigan, but I don’t expect the streak to reach 10.
#11 Missouri @ #1 Texas
This is an upset waiting to happen, isn’t it? Texas coming off a huge win. Missouri coming off a disappointing loss. Both offenses are excellent, but Missouri’s Chase Daniel isn’t likely to have two bad games in a row, is he? Not that he was BAD in the loss to Oklahoma State – he passed for almost 400 yards, but he threw three second half interceptions. Colt McCoy was brilliant in the Longhorns’ win over Oklahoma. Can’t you see the roles reversing this week? Can’t you?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The First B(C)S Rankings
So, it’s October 15th, just a few days until the first official Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings of the 2008 season are released, and, in case you didn’t notice, I added a link to the official BCS homepage to the other links on the side of my blog page. It’s always handy to be able to access the BCS rankings at a moment’s notice. And, if you really need an instant headache, that’s a great place to start.
I decided, once again last night, to embark on a mission to understand the BCS ranking formula. I sat at my favorite establishment with a laptop, a tall glass of my favorite beverage and a few of my friends. Unfortunately, none of my friends are M.I.T. statisticians. So we sat there, confounded and confused, silently reading, and wasting, through our efforts to concentrate and comprehend, almost all of the money we spent (on booze) trying to relax.
I’m going to try to explain the BCS formula in the simplest possible terms. There are six computer ranking systems that are considered. These belong to: Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the (Wesley) Colley Matrix. Each has their own methodology, which, in every case except Anderson & Hester, is explained fully on their respective websites. For that reason alone, the Anderson & Hester numbers immediately suffer a credibility gap with me. Combine that with the fact that their website looks like it was the result of somebody’s tenth grade computer class project, and I find myself wondering how in God’s name they could have been included in the formula that helps determine the right to play for, arguably, the most prestigious of the championships in college sports. One can only hope they had to present a summary of their methodology to the BCS czars at some point, and that their methods are at least somewhat more scientific than, let’s say, pulling a number out of your ass. I urge you to go to the websites of each of the computer rankings included in the BCS (they can be found through the BCS link HERE), and read the explanation of their ranking process, and, if you understand all that, you might qualify to be the flight control officer for a space shuttle launch.
A team’s BCS ranking is based on the average of three things: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive (media) Poll, and a combined average of four of the six computer rankings – the highest and lowest of the six scores are dropped. One common fallacy is that the BCS formula somehow rewards teams for running up the score. This is not true, except to the degree that human voters in the Harris Interactive Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll may be influenced by an impressive margin of victory, and, therefore rank one team that wins convincingly higher than another that wins close games. Margin of victory is not a factor in the six computer rankings, and, in fact, that was a deliberate decision on the part of the BCS architects so that bad sportsmanship (i.e. runaway scores) would not be “encouraged or rewarded.”
I'm actually one of those people that thinks the BCS is relatively functional, and a better alternative to many of the much-heralded college football playoff scenarios that have been proposed, but that is a subject for another time, another column, probably during the offseason.
In the meantime, after an entire evening of digesting this information, along with a delicious salad and the better part of a dozen adult beverages, I decided it might be best to just blindly await the wisdom of the BCS czars when it is finally published , and not really try to understand it. After all, I now have a headache.
I decided, once again last night, to embark on a mission to understand the BCS ranking formula. I sat at my favorite establishment with a laptop, a tall glass of my favorite beverage and a few of my friends. Unfortunately, none of my friends are M.I.T. statisticians. So we sat there, confounded and confused, silently reading, and wasting, through our efforts to concentrate and comprehend, almost all of the money we spent (on booze) trying to relax.
I’m going to try to explain the BCS formula in the simplest possible terms. There are six computer ranking systems that are considered. These belong to: Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the (Wesley) Colley Matrix. Each has their own methodology, which, in every case except Anderson & Hester, is explained fully on their respective websites. For that reason alone, the Anderson & Hester numbers immediately suffer a credibility gap with me. Combine that with the fact that their website looks like it was the result of somebody’s tenth grade computer class project, and I find myself wondering how in God’s name they could have been included in the formula that helps determine the right to play for, arguably, the most prestigious of the championships in college sports. One can only hope they had to present a summary of their methodology to the BCS czars at some point, and that their methods are at least somewhat more scientific than, let’s say, pulling a number out of your ass. I urge you to go to the websites of each of the computer rankings included in the BCS (they can be found through the BCS link HERE), and read the explanation of their ranking process, and, if you understand all that, you might qualify to be the flight control officer for a space shuttle launch.
A team’s BCS ranking is based on the average of three things: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive (media) Poll, and a combined average of four of the six computer rankings – the highest and lowest of the six scores are dropped. One common fallacy is that the BCS formula somehow rewards teams for running up the score. This is not true, except to the degree that human voters in the Harris Interactive Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll may be influenced by an impressive margin of victory, and, therefore rank one team that wins convincingly higher than another that wins close games. Margin of victory is not a factor in the six computer rankings, and, in fact, that was a deliberate decision on the part of the BCS architects so that bad sportsmanship (i.e. runaway scores) would not be “encouraged or rewarded.”
I'm actually one of those people that thinks the BCS is relatively functional, and a better alternative to many of the much-heralded college football playoff scenarios that have been proposed, but that is a subject for another time, another column, probably during the offseason.
In the meantime, after an entire evening of digesting this information, along with a delicious salad and the better part of a dozen adult beverages, I decided it might be best to just blindly await the wisdom of the BCS czars when it is finally published , and not really try to understand it. After all, I now have a headache.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 7)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Another Top 5 Bloodletting
For the second year in a row, week 5 proved to be dangerous to ranked teams. (Week 5 Afterbirth Here) Week 7 wasn't much different. Three of the top five teams lost when Texas beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beat Missouri and Florida beat LSU. The race for the national championship is once again wide open. The remaining unbeaten teams play each other, for the most part, and previously once-beaten teams like Georgia, Florida, Southern California and Ohio State have renewed hope.
Mister Happy
As a Gator fan, I must say I was extremely happy after Florida beat LSU Saturday night. Not as happy as this guy, but almost:
Oh wait. He's ringing a bell at a Texas Tech game.
Holy Toledo!
How miserable are Michigan fans right now? They're still trying to forget last year's shocking season-opening loss to Appalachian State, and then the Wolverines turn around and lose at home to Toledo. Yes, that Toledo. The Rockets. The team that was shut out at home by Ball State last week. Michigan is now 2-4, and, as a reward for their ineptitude, they get to visit unbeaten Penn State this week. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
The Burning Sunday Question
What if the hokey pokey really IS what it's all about?
Another Top 5 Bloodletting
For the second year in a row, week 5 proved to be dangerous to ranked teams. (Week 5 Afterbirth Here) Week 7 wasn't much different. Three of the top five teams lost when Texas beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beat Missouri and Florida beat LSU. The race for the national championship is once again wide open. The remaining unbeaten teams play each other, for the most part, and previously once-beaten teams like Georgia, Florida, Southern California and Ohio State have renewed hope.
Mister Happy
As a Gator fan, I must say I was extremely happy after Florida beat LSU Saturday night. Not as happy as this guy, but almost:
Oh wait. He's ringing a bell at a Texas Tech game.
Holy Toledo!
How miserable are Michigan fans right now? They're still trying to forget last year's shocking season-opening loss to Appalachian State, and then the Wolverines turn around and lose at home to Toledo. Yes, that Toledo. The Rockets. The team that was shut out at home by Ball State last week. Michigan is now 2-4, and, as a reward for their ineptitude, they get to visit unbeaten Penn State this week. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
The Burning Sunday Question
What if the hokey pokey really IS what it's all about?
Thursday, October 9, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest
So far this year, four ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents in Thursday night games. I don’t see it happening this week. Wake Forest usually plays relatively mistake-free football. Except for last week when they turned the ball over six times in the shocking home loss to Navy. Clemson needs this game to stay alive in the ACC race. A Demon Deacon win makes them the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division. I like the Deacons in this one.
Tennessee @ #10 Georgia
Until the loss to Alabama two weeks ago, the last team to beat Georgia was… that’s right, Tennessee. On October 6th, 2007. This year, though, Tennessee is not good. Really not good. They scored 13 points at home last week in a close win over Northern Illinois. This time, the Dawgs get their revenge.
#5 Texas vs #1 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
This is a hard game to pick. Each team is impressive on both side of the ball. Oklahoma has outscored opponents 103-3 in the first quarter this year. If Texas can withstand the early onslaught, they might keep this one close. My gut feeling is that Oklahoma is the better team. And, this time, I think my gut is right.
Notre Dame @ #22 North Carolina
These teams enter the game with identical 4-1 records. The Notre Dame offense seems to be coming around. And QB Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement in the last three games. But North Carolina is another team trying to claw their way back to respectability. Their defense is fast and physical. I like the Tarheels at home.
#4 LSU @ #11 Florida
This is another hard game to pick. On the surface, these two teams appear to be evenly matched. While Florida fans whine about the Gator offense, they lead the league in scoring. And LSU is second. Something tells me that the Gators are still trying to renew their focus after the disappointing home loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. It should be a great game.
#17 Oklahoma State @ #3 Missouri
Missouri is #2 two in the nation in scoring offense. Oklahoma State is #3. Let’s hope they have extra light bulbs for the scoreboard on standby during this game. Here’s an amazing statistic – Missouri has had 48 offensive possessions so far this season, and have yet to have a three-and-out. Missouri is a great passing team. Oklahoma State is great on the ground. I’d love to see the Cowboys pull an upset, but I think the Tigers win at home.
Nebraska @ #7 Texas Tech
Texas Tech has put up some huge offensive numbers, but against some pretty lousy opponents. The Red Raiders may not score 60 in this game, but they’re good enough to beat a Nebraska team still struggling to find an identity.
#6 Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State leads the Big Ten(+1) in total offense and total defense. Wisconsin doesn’t lead the Big Ten(+1) in anything, including the league standings, where they are 0-2. And about to be 0-3.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Kentucky leads the nation in scoring defense. Then again, three of their four wins are over Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Kentucky did have a decent showing against Alabama last week, losing 17-14. Part of me believes that Kentucky should win this one at home. The other part of me thinks the Cocks will win this one. I’m going with the other part of me.
#25 Ball State @ Western Kentucky
Quick, name the team that’s 11th in the nation in total offense. That’s right. Ball State. The Fighting Testes. Oh no, wait. The Cardinals. They’ve started a season 6-0 for the first time since 1965. And that includes a win over the Navy team that beat Wake Forest at home last week. And Western Kentucky is… well, Western Kentucky.
Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest
So far this year, four ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents in Thursday night games. I don’t see it happening this week. Wake Forest usually plays relatively mistake-free football. Except for last week when they turned the ball over six times in the shocking home loss to Navy. Clemson needs this game to stay alive in the ACC race. A Demon Deacon win makes them the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division. I like the Deacons in this one.
Tennessee @ #10 Georgia
Until the loss to Alabama two weeks ago, the last team to beat Georgia was… that’s right, Tennessee. On October 6th, 2007. This year, though, Tennessee is not good. Really not good. They scored 13 points at home last week in a close win over Northern Illinois. This time, the Dawgs get their revenge.
#5 Texas vs #1 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
This is a hard game to pick. Each team is impressive on both side of the ball. Oklahoma has outscored opponents 103-3 in the first quarter this year. If Texas can withstand the early onslaught, they might keep this one close. My gut feeling is that Oklahoma is the better team. And, this time, I think my gut is right.
Notre Dame @ #22 North Carolina
These teams enter the game with identical 4-1 records. The Notre Dame offense seems to be coming around. And QB Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement in the last three games. But North Carolina is another team trying to claw their way back to respectability. Their defense is fast and physical. I like the Tarheels at home.
#4 LSU @ #11 Florida
This is another hard game to pick. On the surface, these two teams appear to be evenly matched. While Florida fans whine about the Gator offense, they lead the league in scoring. And LSU is second. Something tells me that the Gators are still trying to renew their focus after the disappointing home loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. It should be a great game.
#17 Oklahoma State @ #3 Missouri
Missouri is #2 two in the nation in scoring offense. Oklahoma State is #3. Let’s hope they have extra light bulbs for the scoreboard on standby during this game. Here’s an amazing statistic – Missouri has had 48 offensive possessions so far this season, and have yet to have a three-and-out. Missouri is a great passing team. Oklahoma State is great on the ground. I’d love to see the Cowboys pull an upset, but I think the Tigers win at home.
Nebraska @ #7 Texas Tech
Texas Tech has put up some huge offensive numbers, but against some pretty lousy opponents. The Red Raiders may not score 60 in this game, but they’re good enough to beat a Nebraska team still struggling to find an identity.
#6 Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State leads the Big Ten(+1) in total offense and total defense. Wisconsin doesn’t lead the Big Ten(+1) in anything, including the league standings, where they are 0-2. And about to be 0-3.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Kentucky leads the nation in scoring defense. Then again, three of their four wins are over Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Kentucky did have a decent showing against Alabama last week, losing 17-14. Part of me believes that Kentucky should win this one at home. The other part of me thinks the Cocks will win this one. I’m going with the other part of me.
#25 Ball State @ Western Kentucky
Quick, name the team that’s 11th in the nation in total offense. That’s right. Ball State. The Fighting Testes. Oh no, wait. The Cardinals. They’ve started a season 6-0 for the first time since 1965. And that includes a win over the Navy team that beat Wake Forest at home last week. And Western Kentucky is… well, Western Kentucky.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 6)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
The Calm After the Storm
Week 6 in college football was remarkably calm and predictable after the Top 25 massacre that happened last week. I was 10-0 on my Crystal Ball picks (*pats self on back*). Hey, when I suck, I'll admit it, so humor me on the rare occasions when I'm brilliant.
The only “upsets” were Pittsburgh’s Thursday night win at South Florida, and Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State. I suppose Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn could be considered an upset, but that was at least somewhat predictable (I predicted it!), and very enjoyable. You’ve heard of the Prevent Defense? Auburn is apparently running the Prevent Offense. LSU's close win over Auburn is suddenly looking a bit less impressive.
Speaking of the Tigers...
If you're a Gator fan, and I am, there is only one thought that will pervade every waking moment (and some of the sleeping ones) during the upcoming week:
Conference Cannibalism
The Big 12 is finding out what it's like to be in the SEC, where you eat your own on a weekly basis. It's so difficult to escape the SEC regular season schedule unbeaten. Then toss in the league championship game, and it's a recipe for a one or two loss season, even for the best of teams. Only in recent years have the alleged experts decided that a one or two loss SEC team is still better than most of the teams out there.
This week, Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout. Which means one of the nation's top five teams will lose. I would argue that Oklahoma and Missouri are the two best teams around. But, assuming both teams continue to win in the regular season, one of them will beat the other in the Big 12 championship game. The loser of that game won't play for the national championship, but they may be, arguably, better than at least one of the teams that does.
The Calm After the Storm
Week 6 in college football was remarkably calm and predictable after the Top 25 massacre that happened last week. I was 10-0 on my Crystal Ball picks (*pats self on back*). Hey, when I suck, I'll admit it, so humor me on the rare occasions when I'm brilliant.
The only “upsets” were Pittsburgh’s Thursday night win at South Florida, and Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State. I suppose Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn could be considered an upset, but that was at least somewhat predictable (I predicted it!), and very enjoyable. You’ve heard of the Prevent Defense? Auburn is apparently running the Prevent Offense. LSU's close win over Auburn is suddenly looking a bit less impressive.
Speaking of the Tigers...
If you're a Gator fan, and I am, there is only one thought that will pervade every waking moment (and some of the sleeping ones) during the upcoming week:
Conference Cannibalism
The Big 12 is finding out what it's like to be in the SEC, where you eat your own on a weekly basis. It's so difficult to escape the SEC regular season schedule unbeaten. Then toss in the league championship game, and it's a recipe for a one or two loss season, even for the best of teams. Only in recent years have the alleged experts decided that a one or two loss SEC team is still better than most of the teams out there.
This week, Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout. Which means one of the nation's top five teams will lose. I would argue that Oklahoma and Missouri are the two best teams around. But, assuming both teams continue to win in the regular season, one of them will beat the other in the Big 12 championship game. The loser of that game won't play for the national championship, but they may be, arguably, better than at least one of the teams that does.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Stanford @ Notre Dame
The Cardinal's 3-2 start has them believing they have a right to talk trash about the Irish. I don't know why. Notre Dame, on the other hand, found some offense in last week's win over Purdue. Notre Dame is 88th in the nation in total offense. Stanford is 105th. Give me the Irish at home.
#24 Connecticut @ North Carolina
Connecticut QB Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot in the win over Louisville, so the Huskies must rely on Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer. Connecticut's Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing, but North Carolina has a solid, physical defense. And they're playing at home.
#23 Oregon @ Southern California
If Oregon could keep a quarterback healthy, they might have a chance in this game. I think the Ducks can keep it close, but the Trojans have too many horses.
#14 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin
The Badger band is suspended for the game for alleged incidents of hazing and sexual misconduct. That will be the difference in the game, right? Nah. Once again, the Badgers get exposed as pretenders. This game should be close, but look for the Buckeyes to find ways to maximize Terrelle Pryor's effectiveness.
#13 Auburn @ #19 Vanderbilt
It’s hard not to root for Vanderbilt – even if only out of sympathy for their decades of football futility. They play smart football – what a shock – ranking second in the nation in fewest penalties per game, and leading the nation in turnover margin. Auburn’s offense is a work in progress, to put it kindly. I like the Commodores.
#12 Florida @ Arkansas
This game is simple. Arkansas is not very good. Florida is very angry.
Florida State @ Miami
This is always a hard-hitting, entertaining game. Both teams have very good defenses, and very average offenses. Somehow, the 'Noles pull this one off.
#5 Texas @ Colorado
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 against Colorado. I don't think this Longhorn team is as good as past incarnations, but they are good enough to beat the Buffs.
#4 Missouri @ Nebraska
The Huskers have beaten Missouri 15 straight times in Lincoln. The streak stops here. Missouri has two legitimate Heisman candidates in QB Chase Daniel and reciever Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska still has a shred of the Big Red pride, and that alone may help them keep the game close. For about five minutes.
Illinois @ Michigan
Wolverine fans think their season turned around last week with the surprising upset of Wisconsin. I don't. I think Illinois has a few too many weapons, and Michigan not quite enough.
Stanford @ Notre Dame
The Cardinal's 3-2 start has them believing they have a right to talk trash about the Irish. I don't know why. Notre Dame, on the other hand, found some offense in last week's win over Purdue. Notre Dame is 88th in the nation in total offense. Stanford is 105th. Give me the Irish at home.
#24 Connecticut @ North Carolina
Connecticut QB Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot in the win over Louisville, so the Huskies must rely on Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer. Connecticut's Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing, but North Carolina has a solid, physical defense. And they're playing at home.
#23 Oregon @ Southern California
If Oregon could keep a quarterback healthy, they might have a chance in this game. I think the Ducks can keep it close, but the Trojans have too many horses.
#14 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin
The Badger band is suspended for the game for alleged incidents of hazing and sexual misconduct. That will be the difference in the game, right? Nah. Once again, the Badgers get exposed as pretenders. This game should be close, but look for the Buckeyes to find ways to maximize Terrelle Pryor's effectiveness.
#13 Auburn @ #19 Vanderbilt
It’s hard not to root for Vanderbilt – even if only out of sympathy for their decades of football futility. They play smart football – what a shock – ranking second in the nation in fewest penalties per game, and leading the nation in turnover margin. Auburn’s offense is a work in progress, to put it kindly. I like the Commodores.
#12 Florida @ Arkansas
This game is simple. Arkansas is not very good. Florida is very angry.
Florida State @ Miami
This is always a hard-hitting, entertaining game. Both teams have very good defenses, and very average offenses. Somehow, the 'Noles pull this one off.
#5 Texas @ Colorado
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 against Colorado. I don't think this Longhorn team is as good as past incarnations, but they are good enough to beat the Buffs.
#4 Missouri @ Nebraska
The Huskers have beaten Missouri 15 straight times in Lincoln. The streak stops here. Missouri has two legitimate Heisman candidates in QB Chase Daniel and reciever Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska still has a shred of the Big Red pride, and that alone may help them keep the game close. For about five minutes.
Illinois @ Michigan
Wolverine fans think their season turned around last week with the surprising upset of Wisconsin. I don't. I think Illinois has a few too many weapons, and Michigan not quite enough.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Anatomy of an Upset
Upsets are among the things that make college football great. Who doesn’t like to see a seemingly hopeless underdog find something akin to divine inspiration, take advantage of their opponent's miscues, and, with help from the phases of the moon, and possibly a rabbit’s foot, somehow score a point or two more than the once-feared favorite? Sympathizing with the underdog is something that seems to be stitched into the fabric of the American character. I lapse into ridiculous giggling when I watch an upset. I think it was W.C. Fields who said, “Comedy is tragedy happening to somebody else.”
I definitely enjoy a good upset every now and then. Unless it happens to my team. In which case, it’s not fun at all. When my teams loses a game in which they were heavy favorites, it is clearly the result of an infuriating failure on the part of every player, coach and referee who had anything to do with it. Isn’t it?
After the fifth Saturday in the fall for the past two years, I've had alot to laugh about. And complain about.
Last year, in Week 5 of the college football season, five of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. This year, in week five – this past Saturday – four of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. Nine of the top twenty-five teams lost. So many things have to happen in just the right way for a major upset to occur. Since I’m painfully acquainted with Mississippi’s shocking win over Florida, let’s examine that in some detail.
Leading 17-7, after two lackluster opening periods, the Gators opened the second half with two fumbles in their own end of the field, resulting in 10 quick Mississippi points. The Gators hadn’t turned the ball over at all in three previous games, but lost three fumbles Saturday. Combine sloppy ball-handling with a 40 yard touchdown run by Rebel tailback Dexter McCluster late in the third quarter – a run on which the Gator defense missed three or four tackles – and that provided the scoring burst that decided the game.
The Rebels blitzed the Florida offense repeatedly, causing turmoil in the offensive line and, thus, in the offensive backfield. When the offense sputtered, field position suffered. In the first three games, no Gator opponent had started a drive in Florida’s end of the field. On Saturday, Mississippi began drives in Gator territory six times. Seven times the Gators faced third down with ten or more yards to go. No wonder they were one of eleven on third down conversions. Mississippi had 325 yards of total offense, but 170 of them came on just four plays – two of which were backbreakers for the Gators – McCluster’s 40 yard run, and an 86 yard touchdown pass from Rebel QB Jevan Snead to Shay Hodge with just over five minutes left in the game.
I take nothing from the effort that the Rebel players put forth. They played hard. But Mississippi had many things go right for them and many things go wrong for the Gators, and still needed to block an extra point attempt with 3:28 remaining, and stop Tim Tebow on a fourth and one on their own 32 yard line with 40 seconds on the clock to preserve the one point victory. Such is the nature of an upset.
Southern California, Georgia and Wisconsin suffered the same kind of disappointment on Saturday. Of course, I laughed when it happened to them.
If you don’t think this is a strange college football season already, imagine this: Kentucky and Vanderbilt are now the only unbeaten teams remaining in the SEC’s East Division.
I definitely enjoy a good upset every now and then. Unless it happens to my team. In which case, it’s not fun at all. When my teams loses a game in which they were heavy favorites, it is clearly the result of an infuriating failure on the part of every player, coach and referee who had anything to do with it. Isn’t it?
After the fifth Saturday in the fall for the past two years, I've had alot to laugh about. And complain about.
Last year, in Week 5 of the college football season, five of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. This year, in week five – this past Saturday – four of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. Nine of the top twenty-five teams lost. So many things have to happen in just the right way for a major upset to occur. Since I’m painfully acquainted with Mississippi’s shocking win over Florida, let’s examine that in some detail.
Leading 17-7, after two lackluster opening periods, the Gators opened the second half with two fumbles in their own end of the field, resulting in 10 quick Mississippi points. The Gators hadn’t turned the ball over at all in three previous games, but lost three fumbles Saturday. Combine sloppy ball-handling with a 40 yard touchdown run by Rebel tailback Dexter McCluster late in the third quarter – a run on which the Gator defense missed three or four tackles – and that provided the scoring burst that decided the game.
The Rebels blitzed the Florida offense repeatedly, causing turmoil in the offensive line and, thus, in the offensive backfield. When the offense sputtered, field position suffered. In the first three games, no Gator opponent had started a drive in Florida’s end of the field. On Saturday, Mississippi began drives in Gator territory six times. Seven times the Gators faced third down with ten or more yards to go. No wonder they were one of eleven on third down conversions. Mississippi had 325 yards of total offense, but 170 of them came on just four plays – two of which were backbreakers for the Gators – McCluster’s 40 yard run, and an 86 yard touchdown pass from Rebel QB Jevan Snead to Shay Hodge with just over five minutes left in the game.
I take nothing from the effort that the Rebel players put forth. They played hard. But Mississippi had many things go right for them and many things go wrong for the Gators, and still needed to block an extra point attempt with 3:28 remaining, and stop Tim Tebow on a fourth and one on their own 32 yard line with 40 seconds on the clock to preserve the one point victory. Such is the nature of an upset.
Southern California, Georgia and Wisconsin suffered the same kind of disappointment on Saturday. Of course, I laughed when it happened to them.
If you don’t think this is a strange college football season already, imagine this: Kentucky and Vanderbilt are now the only unbeaten teams remaining in the SEC’s East Division.
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