Anatomy of an Upset

Upsets are among the things that make college football great. Who doesn’t like to see a seemingly hopeless underdog find something akin to divine inspiration, take advantage of their opponent's miscues, and, with help from the phases of the moon, and possibly a rabbit’s foot, somehow score a point or two more than the once-feared favorite? Sympathizing with the underdog is something that seems to be stitched into the fabric of the American character. I lapse into ridiculous giggling when I watch an upset. I think it was W.C. Fields who said, “Comedy is tragedy happening to somebody else.”

I definitely enjoy a good upset every now and then. Unless it happens to my team. In which case, it’s not fun at all. When my teams loses a game in which they were heavy favorites, it is clearly the result of an infuriating failure on the part of every player, coach and referee who had anything to do with it. Isn’t it?

After the fifth Saturday in the fall for the past two years, I've had alot to laugh about. And complain about.

Last year, in Week 5 of the college football season, five of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. This year, in week five – this past Saturday – four of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. Nine of the top twenty-five teams lost. So many things have to happen in just the right way for a major upset to occur. Since I’m painfully acquainted with Mississippi’s shocking win over Florida, let’s examine that in some detail.

Leading 17-7, after two lackluster opening periods, the Gators opened the second half with two fumbles in their own end of the field, resulting in 10 quick Mississippi points. The Gators hadn’t turned the ball over at all in three previous games, but lost three fumbles Saturday. Combine sloppy ball-handling with a 40 yard touchdown run by Rebel tailback Dexter McCluster late in the third quarter – a run on which the Gator defense missed three or four tackles – and that provided the scoring burst that decided the game.



The Rebels blitzed the Florida offense repeatedly, causing turmoil in the offensive line and, thus, in the offensive backfield. When the offense sputtered, field position suffered. In the first three games, no Gator opponent had started a drive in Florida’s end of the field. On Saturday, Mississippi began drives in Gator territory six times. Seven times the Gators faced third down with ten or more yards to go. No wonder they were one of eleven on third down conversions. Mississippi had 325 yards of total offense, but 170 of them came on just four plays – two of which were backbreakers for the Gators – McCluster’s 40 yard run, and an 86 yard touchdown pass from Rebel QB Jevan Snead to Shay Hodge with just over five minutes left in the game.

I take nothing from the effort that the Rebel players put forth. They played hard. But Mississippi had many things go right for them and many things go wrong for the Gators, and still needed to block an extra point attempt with 3:28 remaining, and stop Tim Tebow on a fourth and one on their own 32 yard line with 40 seconds on the clock to preserve the one point victory. Such is the nature of an upset.

Southern California, Georgia and Wisconsin suffered the same kind of disappointment on Saturday. Of course, I laughed when it happened to them.

If you don’t think this is a strange college football season already, imagine this: Kentucky and Vanderbilt are now the only unbeaten teams remaining in the SEC’s East Division.