...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
#8 Florida vs #6 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
Let’s make one thing clear: I hate Georgia. Not just a tad. Not just somewhat. We’re talking a whole freakin’ lot. Although, admittedly, I have a soft spot for Georgia girls… ;) On paper, these are two pretty evenly matched teams. The difference appears to be on defense, where Georgia has been susceptible to big plays, and Florida has improved significantly. Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is the real deal. If the Gators can slow him down better than they did last year (188 yards rushing), they will win.
#1 Texas @ #7 Texas Tech
I’d love to see a Texas Tech win here, just to see the BCS hierarchy shaken up. They score an average of 48 points per game, but their early season competition wasn’t exactly stellar. The tough home stretch starts now. Texas, on the other hand, has faced opponents ranked 11th or better in each of their previous three games. They are tested, but are they tired as well? I think so. I’m going to take the Red Raiders.
Wisconsin @ #21 Michigan State
I decided to pick this game because it gave me a chance to repeat, yet again, the fact that Wisconsin is so consistently over-rated at the beginning of each season it makes me want to vomit. This is a team that was in most top 10 rankings in August, and, in some people’s top 5. Why?? Repeat after me. Badgers? We don’t need no stinking Badgers. They are now 4-4, and little more than an afterthought. Kind of like a nasty burp after a Taco Bell combo meal. Michigan State absolutely imploded in their loss to Ohio State two weeks ago, but rebounded to win at Michigan. I am by no means a Spartans fan, but I think they win this one.
Nebraska @ #4 Oklahoma
Remember when this game used to be huge? The winner of this game pretty much always won the old Big 8 and ended up in the Orange Bowl. Oklahoma, under Bob Stoops has regained the status they enjoyed in earlier glory years. And Nebraska… hasn’t. All eyes will be on the big games in Jacksonville and Lubbock while the Sooners take care of business.
#15 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
I hate Florida State, but they’ve very quietly crept back into the Top 25 after losing to Wake Forest on September 20th. The ‘Noles have often been just a bit susceptible to teams that can line up and right right at them. And that’s what Georgia Tech will do. Bobby Bowden is looking for his 13th straight win over the Yellow Jackets. I don’t think he’s going to get it.
#24 Oregon @ California
Will the real California team please stand up? What will we see Saturday? The team that beat Michigan State in the home opener, and pounded UCLA last week? Or the team that was physically dominated by Maryland and Arizona? When Oregon gets their offense going, they are hard to beat, but their defense has struggled at times. Cal seems to be a better team at home, and, unfortunately for the Ducks, this game is in Berkley.
Northwestern @ #17 Minnesota
This is an interesting matchup of two teams that have clearly exceeded expectations this year. Northwestern is 6-2. After going 1-11 last year and surrendering almost 37 points per game, Minnesota is 7-1, and allowing just 17 points per game. Northwestern started the season 6-1, but lost last week, inexplicably, to a pretty lousy Indiana team. In that loss, RB Tyrell Sutton sustained a season-ending wrist injury. After this week’s game, the Wildcats finish the season with games against Ohio State, @ Michigan and Illinois. They could finish 6-6 because the Gophers will take this one.
Miami @ Virginia
Virginia started the season 1-3, including a 31-3 thrashing at the hands of the mighty Duke Blue Devils. But since then, they’ve won four straight. When RB Cedric Peerman got healthy, things seemed to turn around. Are they good enough to beat a mediocre Miami team? They may be without starting fullback Rashawn Jackson, who was arrested this week on larceny and breaking and entering charges dating back to last year. Miami has problems at the QB position, and their offensive production is way down as a result. But the defense is currently 15th in the nation. In the interest of fairness, I should admit that I hate Miami. And I’ll take Virginia in this one.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Sometimes You Just Need A Hug
Every now and then, something happens that restores my faith in humanity. Sadly, the effect doesn't last long, but I still appreciate it at the time. In last night's Cincinnati win over South Florida, Bearcat wide reciever Mardy Gilyard streaked into the endzone in pursuit of a long pass from quarterback Tony Pike. Gilyard caught the pass out of bounds and his momentum carried him into the stands where he crashed into 7 yeard old Garrett Monroe, who ended up in tears - probably more scared than hurt. Gilyard's instinctive reaction might brighten your day, at least for an hour...
As it turned out, the kid was interviewed by ESPN's Erin Andrews, and, by the end of the game, was signing autographs! Go figure... Game recap, and additional video can be found here.
As it turned out, the kid was interviewed by ESPN's Erin Andrews, and, by the end of the game, was signing autographs! Go figure... Game recap, and additional video can be found here.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Non-S Conference
I've decided to do something a bit different. I'm creating my own college football conference. Nobody will care, except me, and even that is questionable. It will be a new conference of old teams, so technically it's not even totally new.
But I thought it would be fun to track an imaginary league consisting of the 12 teams whose names don't end in "s." You remember these, right? Of course you do. This was the subject of a world famous Illegal Procedure blog entry back in August. Click here to be reminded.
Here's my inaugural Non-S Conference Report...
Alabama (Crimson Tide) [8-0 overall, 5-0 in the SEC West] – Beat Tennessee in Knoxville, 29-9. Up next? A home game against Arkansas State.
Illinois (Fighting Illini) [4-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten] – Lost at Wisconsin 27-17. Next up? A home game against Iowa.
Marshall (Thundering Herd) [3-4 overall, 2-1 in Conference USA] – In their last game on October 18th, they lost to UAB 23-21. This Tuesday, they host Houston.
Navy (Midshipmen) [5-3 overall, independent] —Beat SMU 34-7 in a game in which they didn’t attempt a single pass – the first time since 1997 that a Division I team went through an entire game without a pass. Next up? A home game against Temple.
Nevada (Wolfpack) [4-4, 2-2 in the WAC] – Lost at Hawaii 38-31. Next up? At Fresno State on November 7th.
NC State (Wolfpack) [2-6 overall, 0-4 in the Atlantic Division of the ACC] – Lost at Maryland 27-24. Next up? At Duke on November 8th.
North Texas (Mean Green) [0-8 overall, 0-4 in the Sunbelt Conference] – Lost to Troy 45-17. Next up? At Western Kentucky.
Notre Dame (Fighting Irish) [5-2 overall, independent] – Beat Washington 33-7. Next up? A home game against Pittsburgh.
Stanford (Cardinal) [4-4, 3-3 in the PAC 10] – Lost at UCLA 23-20 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Washington State.
Syracuse (Orangemen) [1-6 overall, 0-3 in the Big East]– Lost at South Florida 45-13 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Louisville.
Tulane (Green Wave) [2-5 overall, 1-3 in Conference USA] – Lost at home to Rice 42-17. Next up? At LSU.
Tulsa (Golden Hurricane) [7-4 overall, 4-0 in Conference USA] – Beat UTEP at home 77-35 on October 18th. Next up? UCF on October 26th.
But I thought it would be fun to track an imaginary league consisting of the 12 teams whose names don't end in "s." You remember these, right? Of course you do. This was the subject of a world famous Illegal Procedure blog entry back in August. Click here to be reminded.
Here's my inaugural Non-S Conference Report...
Alabama (Crimson Tide) [8-0 overall, 5-0 in the SEC West] – Beat Tennessee in Knoxville, 29-9. Up next? A home game against Arkansas State.
Illinois (Fighting Illini) [4-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten] – Lost at Wisconsin 27-17. Next up? A home game against Iowa.
Marshall (Thundering Herd) [3-4 overall, 2-1 in Conference USA] – In their last game on October 18th, they lost to UAB 23-21. This Tuesday, they host Houston.
Navy (Midshipmen) [5-3 overall, independent] —Beat SMU 34-7 in a game in which they didn’t attempt a single pass – the first time since 1997 that a Division I team went through an entire game without a pass. Next up? A home game against Temple.
Nevada (Wolfpack) [4-4, 2-2 in the WAC] – Lost at Hawaii 38-31. Next up? At Fresno State on November 7th.
NC State (Wolfpack) [2-6 overall, 0-4 in the Atlantic Division of the ACC] – Lost at Maryland 27-24. Next up? At Duke on November 8th.
North Texas (Mean Green) [0-8 overall, 0-4 in the Sunbelt Conference] – Lost to Troy 45-17. Next up? At Western Kentucky.
Notre Dame (Fighting Irish) [5-2 overall, independent] – Beat Washington 33-7. Next up? A home game against Pittsburgh.
Stanford (Cardinal) [4-4, 3-3 in the PAC 10] – Lost at UCLA 23-20 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Washington State.
Syracuse (Orangemen) [1-6 overall, 0-3 in the Big East]– Lost at South Florida 45-13 on October 18th. Next up? A home game against Louisville.
Tulane (Green Wave) [2-5 overall, 1-3 in Conference USA] – Lost at home to Rice 42-17. Next up? At LSU.
Tulsa (Golden Hurricane) [7-4 overall, 4-0 in Conference USA] – Beat UTEP at home 77-35 on October 18th. Next up? UCF on October 26th.
Monday, October 27, 2008
UGA Beware
Once again, for those of you who know me, you know that I am a Gator fan. If you didn't know that, well, you do now.
I'm also an animal lover. Not a card-carrying member of PETA, mind you. But I find it virtually impossible to kill anything larger than a mosquito, and I tend to be fond of almost any kind of animal that we humans have domesticated over the last 10,000 years or so.
But this week is a special week. An unusual week. It is a time when a surpisingly large share of my attention is focused on the demise of one single, mangy mutt. By 6:30 Saturday afternoon, I hope to see the famous University of Georgia mascot looking something like this...
All I can say is, UGA beware.
Countdown to UGA's Demise
Dawg Dance
In case anyone needs a reminder, the Georgia Bulldawgs celebrated their first touchdown in last year's game in a way that was remarkably classless, even for them. And, despite head coach Mark Richt's subsequent attempts to deny that the event was pre-meditated, we know differently...
World's Largest Outdoor... Something or Other
Speaking of THAT game in Jacksonville, I can kind of understand the reluctance of both schools' administrations to refer to the game by its decades-old nickname. I mean, there is no need for them to offically endorse it. But, come on. It is what it is. If you've never been, I highly recommend it. There is no other atmosphere like the one surrounding that stadium before the game, and inside that stadium during the game.
And, let's get real. It IS the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
I'm also an animal lover. Not a card-carrying member of PETA, mind you. But I find it virtually impossible to kill anything larger than a mosquito, and I tend to be fond of almost any kind of animal that we humans have domesticated over the last 10,000 years or so.
But this week is a special week. An unusual week. It is a time when a surpisingly large share of my attention is focused on the demise of one single, mangy mutt. By 6:30 Saturday afternoon, I hope to see the famous University of Georgia mascot looking something like this...
All I can say is, UGA beware.
Countdown to UGA's Demise
Dawg Dance
In case anyone needs a reminder, the Georgia Bulldawgs celebrated their first touchdown in last year's game in a way that was remarkably classless, even for them. And, despite head coach Mark Richt's subsequent attempts to deny that the event was pre-meditated, we know differently...
World's Largest Outdoor... Something or Other
Speaking of THAT game in Jacksonville, I can kind of understand the reluctance of both schools' administrations to refer to the game by its decades-old nickname. I mean, there is no need for them to offically endorse it. But, come on. It is what it is. If you've never been, I highly recommend it. There is no other atmosphere like the one surrounding that stadium before the game, and inside that stadium during the game.
And, let's get real. It IS the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 9)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 2)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (93 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (84 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Okay, I know this gets repetitive. But this WILL come back to haunt the Big 12 champion if they get to the BCS Championship game. Texas is the only one of the ranked teams in the league that plays some semblance of defense, and, for that, they deserve some credit. I suppose.
Do the Lions Really Bite?
I watched Penn State beat Ohio State Saturday night. National media pundits are lining up to support JoePa, and boost them into the BCS Championship game with their best wishes. Sure, it was a hostile environment. But, if you watched the game, really watched the game, you know that Ohio State just isn’t that good. The key play – early in the fourth quarter, with the Buckeyes nursing a 6-3 lead in a ferocious defensive struggle, quarterback Terrelle Pryor carried on a third and 1 from their own 38 yard line. With the middle of the line clogged, Pryor slid to his right, and caught a glimpse of the Penn State endzone in the distance. Trying to make the big play, he forgot to secure the ball. Penn State defensive back Mark Rubin punched the ball loose, and linebacker Navorro Bowman fell on it. Given a short field, Penn State scored the game’s only touchdown and held on to win.
Pryor explained after the game, ''I just didn't hold the ball. I saw the end zone. It was there and the ball just fell out. I thought I was on my way to a touchdown but I just lost the ball. As soon as I fumbled it, I knew they would score.''
What is the point of all this, you ask? Ohio State is 95th in the nation in total offense, and I just don’t think they are very good. Penn State did what they needed to do, but that one play really changed the game. What if Pryor had held onto the ball, turned upfield and scampered all the way down the field for a touchdown? We’d be talking about how over-rated Penn State was. So, let’s keep this in perspective. They won. But they’re still over-rated.
The Burning Sunday Question
Is it wrong to wash down vitamins with beer?
Big 12 Defenses Are Downright Offensive (Part 2)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas State defense. (93 points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (84 points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Okay, I know this gets repetitive. But this WILL come back to haunt the Big 12 champion if they get to the BCS Championship game. Texas is the only one of the ranked teams in the league that plays some semblance of defense, and, for that, they deserve some credit. I suppose.
Do the Lions Really Bite?
I watched Penn State beat Ohio State Saturday night. National media pundits are lining up to support JoePa, and boost them into the BCS Championship game with their best wishes. Sure, it was a hostile environment. But, if you watched the game, really watched the game, you know that Ohio State just isn’t that good. The key play – early in the fourth quarter, with the Buckeyes nursing a 6-3 lead in a ferocious defensive struggle, quarterback Terrelle Pryor carried on a third and 1 from their own 38 yard line. With the middle of the line clogged, Pryor slid to his right, and caught a glimpse of the Penn State endzone in the distance. Trying to make the big play, he forgot to secure the ball. Penn State defensive back Mark Rubin punched the ball loose, and linebacker Navorro Bowman fell on it. Given a short field, Penn State scored the game’s only touchdown and held on to win.
Pryor explained after the game, ''I just didn't hold the ball. I saw the end zone. It was there and the ball just fell out. I thought I was on my way to a touchdown but I just lost the ball. As soon as I fumbled it, I knew they would score.''
What is the point of all this, you ask? Ohio State is 95th in the nation in total offense, and I just don’t think they are very good. Penn State did what they needed to do, but that one play really changed the game. What if Pryor had held onto the ball, turned upfield and scampered all the way down the field for a touchdown? We’d be talking about how over-rated Penn State was. So, let’s keep this in perspective. They won. But they’re still over-rated.
The Burning Sunday Question
Is it wrong to wash down vitamins with beer?
Saturday, October 25, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
So I’m a bit late getting these picks done this weekend. Hey, I have a life. What’s your excuse? Don’t worry. I made these picks early, and I have witnesses.
Virginia Tech @ #25 Florida State
Florida State is 5-1 and continuing to improve. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and in need of a win to keep pace in the race for the Coastal Division of the ACC. Unfortunately, this is just the kind of game the stinking Seminoles win.
Kentucky @ #10 Florida
Florida’s offense seems to be clicking, and Kentucky, after starting the season 4-0, has been riddled with injuries as they hit the meat of their schedule. Florida, at home, is too much for the Wildcats.
#2 Alabama @ Tennessee
Tennessee is not very good. They are 3-4, and haven’t beaten a ranked team this year. They need to win 3 of their remaining 5 games just to be bowl eligible. Alabama won last year in Tuscaloosa, but haven’t beaten the Vols in consecutive years since ’91-’92. Amazingly, second ranked, unbeaten Alabama is only a 4 point favorite. I’m going to roll with the Tide.
#7 Georgia @ 13 LSU
This is a tough gamed to call. A loss for either team will all but eliminate them from the national championship race, and damage their hopes for a division title. LSU’s defense is allegedly loaded with superior athletes, but they haven’t been playing like it. Georgia coach Mark Richt is 28-3in games away from Athens. As much as it pains me to admit it, that’s pretty impressive.
#3 Penn State @ #9 Ohio State
Penn State is 8-0, and has all the alleged experts wetting themselves over the resurgence of JoePa. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State in Columbus in the seven times they’ve played since joining the Big 10 in 1993. On the other hand, a win in this game would go a long way toward restoring Ohio State’s tarnished reputation. Logic would say pick Penn State. So I’m taking Ohio State.
#5 USC @ Arizona
Arizona is 5-2, and their 42-27 pounding of Cal last week has given rise to renewed optimism in Tucson. The Wildcats are ninth in the nation in scoring, and think they might be able to keep up with USC. The Trojans are heavy favorites in this one. I hate USC, but I think they win this one.
So I’m a bit late getting these picks done this weekend. Hey, I have a life. What’s your excuse? Don’t worry. I made these picks early, and I have witnesses.
Virginia Tech @ #25 Florida State
Florida State is 5-1 and continuing to improve. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and in need of a win to keep pace in the race for the Coastal Division of the ACC. Unfortunately, this is just the kind of game the stinking Seminoles win.
Kentucky @ #10 Florida
Florida’s offense seems to be clicking, and Kentucky, after starting the season 4-0, has been riddled with injuries as they hit the meat of their schedule. Florida, at home, is too much for the Wildcats.
#2 Alabama @ Tennessee
Tennessee is not very good. They are 3-4, and haven’t beaten a ranked team this year. They need to win 3 of their remaining 5 games just to be bowl eligible. Alabama won last year in Tuscaloosa, but haven’t beaten the Vols in consecutive years since ’91-’92. Amazingly, second ranked, unbeaten Alabama is only a 4 point favorite. I’m going to roll with the Tide.
#7 Georgia @ 13 LSU
This is a tough gamed to call. A loss for either team will all but eliminate them from the national championship race, and damage their hopes for a division title. LSU’s defense is allegedly loaded with superior athletes, but they haven’t been playing like it. Georgia coach Mark Richt is 28-3in games away from Athens. As much as it pains me to admit it, that’s pretty impressive.
#3 Penn State @ #9 Ohio State
Penn State is 8-0, and has all the alleged experts wetting themselves over the resurgence of JoePa. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State in Columbus in the seven times they’ve played since joining the Big 10 in 1993. On the other hand, a win in this game would go a long way toward restoring Ohio State’s tarnished reputation. Logic would say pick Penn State. So I’m taking Ohio State.
#5 USC @ Arizona
Arizona is 5-2, and their 42-27 pounding of Cal last week has given rise to renewed optimism in Tucson. The Wildcats are ninth in the nation in scoring, and think they might be able to keep up with USC. The Trojans are heavy favorites in this one. I hate USC, but I think they win this one.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 8)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Patting Myself on the Back
This week I was 8-2 on my Crystal Ball picks. Last week I was 8-2. The week before that I was 10-0. That brings my season total to 52-19, and I don't pick any easy ones. I'm saying that's pretty freakin' good. Hey, if I don't pat myself on the back, who else will do it?
There Are Some Things You Just Can't Hide
Sometimes you can hide things. Sometimes you can't. If you're a defensive coordinator in the Big 12, I'm thinking you can't really hide the gaping holes in your defense.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Missouri defense. (87 total points scored in that game, a Texas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (76 total points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas Tech defense. (68 total points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Stop me if this gets repetitive.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the…
Okay, I’ll stop. But, hopefully, you get the point. I think we can now confirm that they do not play defense in the Big 12, and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass if one of their teams should somehow earn the right to play in the BCS Championship game.
Pre-Game Meal Not Enough?
I'm not sure what to say about this, other than the fact that Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel probably had a hard time getting his girlfriend to kiss him after this video hit the internet...
Patting Myself on the Back
This week I was 8-2 on my Crystal Ball picks. Last week I was 8-2. The week before that I was 10-0. That brings my season total to 52-19, and I don't pick any easy ones. I'm saying that's pretty freakin' good. Hey, if I don't pat myself on the back, who else will do it?
There Are Some Things You Just Can't Hide
Sometimes you can hide things. Sometimes you can't. If you're a defensive coordinator in the Big 12, I'm thinking you can't really hide the gaping holes in your defense.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Missouri defense. (87 total points scored in that game, a Texas victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Kansas defense. (76 total points scored in that game, an Oklahoma victory)
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the Texas Tech defense. (68 total points scored in that game, a Texas Tech victory)
Stop me if this gets repetitive.
You and me and 9 guys from the nearest pub could score a touchdown on the…
Okay, I’ll stop. But, hopefully, you get the point. I think we can now confirm that they do not play defense in the Big 12, and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass if one of their teams should somehow earn the right to play in the BCS Championship game.
Pre-Game Meal Not Enough?
I'm not sure what to say about this, other than the fact that Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel probably had a hard time getting his girlfriend to kiss him after this video hit the internet...
Friday, October 17, 2008
A Friday Night Thought
As I sat here on this Friday evening, waiting for another great weekend of college football, a thought dawned on me, and I decided I should share it with you. It's kind of one of those chicken or the egg things, but it actually has to do with football.
There is always talk about which of the major conferences is the best, and most people agree that the SEC, year in and year out, is the better league. There has been tons of talk about the offenses and the quarterbacks in the Big 12 this season. And rightfully so. Colt McCoy at Texas, Chase Daniel at Missouri, Sam Bradford at Oklahoma, Todd Reesing at Kansas, Graham Harrell at Texas Tech, and even the play of Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State, although their ground game powers their offense. The list goes on and on. Six Big 12 teams rank #21 or higher in terms of total offense. That's pretty impressive. Not surprisingly, none of their teams are in the top 21 in terms of total defense.
Then I looked at the SEC, where most people have the impression that the offenses are struggling this year. Wouldn't you know... No SEC team is ranked in the top 21 in terms of total offense. But seven SEC teams are ranked #21 or higher in terms of total defense.
So it makes me wonder. Are the offenses in the Big 12 really that good? Or are the defenses just that bad? And, conversely, are the offenses in the SEC really struggling? Or are the defenses just that good?
And it got me thinking about the end of the 2006 season, when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-39, and, essentially, secured their right to play for the national championship. Almost all of the experts called the game an instant classic, a stunning display by two great teams. But I remember clearly one voice - CBS color commentator Gary Danielson - who said, "To me it looked like two teams with lousy defenses."
What happened in the end? That Ohio State team, averaging 36 points per game in the regular season, scored a mere 14 points in the BCS Championship game - and 7 of those points came on the opening kick return - against SEC champion Florida, a team with a great defense.
It makes you wonder about the Big 12, doesn't it?
There is always talk about which of the major conferences is the best, and most people agree that the SEC, year in and year out, is the better league. There has been tons of talk about the offenses and the quarterbacks in the Big 12 this season. And rightfully so. Colt McCoy at Texas, Chase Daniel at Missouri, Sam Bradford at Oklahoma, Todd Reesing at Kansas, Graham Harrell at Texas Tech, and even the play of Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State, although their ground game powers their offense. The list goes on and on. Six Big 12 teams rank #21 or higher in terms of total offense. That's pretty impressive. Not surprisingly, none of their teams are in the top 21 in terms of total defense.
Then I looked at the SEC, where most people have the impression that the offenses are struggling this year. Wouldn't you know... No SEC team is ranked in the top 21 in terms of total offense. But seven SEC teams are ranked #21 or higher in terms of total defense.
So it makes me wonder. Are the offenses in the Big 12 really that good? Or are the defenses just that bad? And, conversely, are the offenses in the SEC really struggling? Or are the defenses just that good?
And it got me thinking about the end of the 2006 season, when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-39, and, essentially, secured their right to play for the national championship. Almost all of the experts called the game an instant classic, a stunning display by two great teams. But I remember clearly one voice - CBS color commentator Gary Danielson - who said, "To me it looked like two teams with lousy defenses."
What happened in the end? That Ohio State team, averaging 36 points per game in the regular season, scored a mere 14 points in the BCS Championship game - and 7 of those points came on the opening kick return - against SEC champion Florida, a team with a great defense.
It makes you wonder about the Big 12, doesn't it?
Thursday, October 16, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
#9 BYU @ TCU
Can you tell me the last time BYU lost a game? I’ll give you a hint. It was September 15, 2007. Okay. I gave you the answer. But they do own the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Both of these teams have remarkable statistical stories to tell. BYU leads the nation in 3rd down efficiency (61%) and is 3rd in the nation in fewest sacks allowed (.33 per game). BYU is 2nd in the nation in scoring defense. TCU is 9th. TCU leads the nation in rushing defense, giving up an amazing average of just under 21 yards per game. What does all that mean? I have no idea. I’ll take TCU at home. Plus, how can you not like a team named the Horned Frogs?
Florida State @ NC State
I hate Florida State. But NC State is 2-4, with their two impressive wins coming over William & Mary and an overtime contest against East Carolina. And Florida State’s offense seems to be coming around. The 'Noles win this one.
#21 Wake Forest @ Maryland
This is an interesting game. A Wake Forest win would leave them clearly in command of the ACC’s Atlantic Division race. It all depends which Maryland team shows up. The one that manhandled California and won at Clemson? Or the one that lost to Middle Tennessee State and got shut out by a pretty lousy Virginia team? If the first Terps team shows up they can win this game. And, after last week’s embarrassment in Charlottesville, I think they will. Wake Forest has been struggling to score touchdowns, and it’s got to come back and bite them soon, especially with reliable place kicker Sam Swank out with a bad leg.
#10 Georgia @ #22 Vanderbilt
I hope the Commodores enjoyed the 5-0 start and all the notoriety that came with it. ESPN Gameday in Nashville? Who would have thought? But now they’re into the meat of their schedule. If you had asked head coach Bobby Johnson, I’m sure he would have told you that, heading into the season, he had chalked last week’s game up as a win. But Vandy managed just 107 yards of total offense. And a struggling offense is not what you need when the Dawgs are coming to town.
Baylor @ #8 Oklahoma State
I’ve had a long-standing tendency to like Oklahoma State, and I’m not really sure why. I think it goes back to the times that the Cowboys snuck up and beat Oklahoma in ‘97 and ’98. And, just for the record, I hate Oklahoma. Will Oklahoma State have a letdown after their upset of Missouri? It seems likely. Is Baylor good enough to take advantage of it? Yes. Will they? No. By the way, in case you’re wondering when was the last time that Baylor beat Oklahoma State… it was on October 7th. In 1939.
#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State
Wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin led people to believe that QB Terrelle Pryor really had injected some much-needed energy into the offense. Then came last week’s win over Purdue – a game in which the Buckeyes managed just 222 yards of offense against one of the nation's lesser defenses. Meanwhile, Michigan State has won 6 in a row after a season opening road loss to California, and RB Javon Ringer has been impressive. But the Spartan defense has been less than stellar. Still, I like the Spartans at home. And, for the record, I hate Ohio State.
#16 Kansas @ #4 Oklahoma
Oklahoma owns the nation’s longest home win streak. Their defense has been far from overwhelming, and now middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, arguably their best defensive player, is expected to miss the rest of the season after tearing a knee ligament last week against Texas. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is a great player, but I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough offense to beat Oklahoma at home, especially with the Sooners coming off of last week’s upset loss to Texas.
#13 LSU @ South Carolina
When Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have won this season, it has been, somewhat surprisingly, with defense. They are 3rd in the nation in total defense. If they can keep this one close, and keep the score in the teens, they’ll have a shot at the upset. But LSU still has the great athletes they’ve always had, and should be a bit fired up after getting trounced by Florida last week.
Michigan @ #3 Penn State
Lots of people are climbing on the Penn State bandwagon. I’m not ready quite yet. But, let’s face it, this Michigan team is surprisingly lousy. Their offense ranks 109th in the nation. Penn State has lost 9 in a row to Michigan, but I don’t expect the streak to reach 10.
#11 Missouri @ #1 Texas
This is an upset waiting to happen, isn’t it? Texas coming off a huge win. Missouri coming off a disappointing loss. Both offenses are excellent, but Missouri’s Chase Daniel isn’t likely to have two bad games in a row, is he? Not that he was BAD in the loss to Oklahoma State – he passed for almost 400 yards, but he threw three second half interceptions. Colt McCoy was brilliant in the Longhorns’ win over Oklahoma. Can’t you see the roles reversing this week? Can’t you?
#9 BYU @ TCU
Can you tell me the last time BYU lost a game? I’ll give you a hint. It was September 15, 2007. Okay. I gave you the answer. But they do own the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Both of these teams have remarkable statistical stories to tell. BYU leads the nation in 3rd down efficiency (61%) and is 3rd in the nation in fewest sacks allowed (.33 per game). BYU is 2nd in the nation in scoring defense. TCU is 9th. TCU leads the nation in rushing defense, giving up an amazing average of just under 21 yards per game. What does all that mean? I have no idea. I’ll take TCU at home. Plus, how can you not like a team named the Horned Frogs?
Florida State @ NC State
I hate Florida State. But NC State is 2-4, with their two impressive wins coming over William & Mary and an overtime contest against East Carolina. And Florida State’s offense seems to be coming around. The 'Noles win this one.
#21 Wake Forest @ Maryland
This is an interesting game. A Wake Forest win would leave them clearly in command of the ACC’s Atlantic Division race. It all depends which Maryland team shows up. The one that manhandled California and won at Clemson? Or the one that lost to Middle Tennessee State and got shut out by a pretty lousy Virginia team? If the first Terps team shows up they can win this game. And, after last week’s embarrassment in Charlottesville, I think they will. Wake Forest has been struggling to score touchdowns, and it’s got to come back and bite them soon, especially with reliable place kicker Sam Swank out with a bad leg.
#10 Georgia @ #22 Vanderbilt
I hope the Commodores enjoyed the 5-0 start and all the notoriety that came with it. ESPN Gameday in Nashville? Who would have thought? But now they’re into the meat of their schedule. If you had asked head coach Bobby Johnson, I’m sure he would have told you that, heading into the season, he had chalked last week’s game up as a win. But Vandy managed just 107 yards of total offense. And a struggling offense is not what you need when the Dawgs are coming to town.
Baylor @ #8 Oklahoma State
I’ve had a long-standing tendency to like Oklahoma State, and I’m not really sure why. I think it goes back to the times that the Cowboys snuck up and beat Oklahoma in ‘97 and ’98. And, just for the record, I hate Oklahoma. Will Oklahoma State have a letdown after their upset of Missouri? It seems likely. Is Baylor good enough to take advantage of it? Yes. Will they? No. By the way, in case you’re wondering when was the last time that Baylor beat Oklahoma State… it was on October 7th. In 1939.
#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State
Wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin led people to believe that QB Terrelle Pryor really had injected some much-needed energy into the offense. Then came last week’s win over Purdue – a game in which the Buckeyes managed just 222 yards of offense against one of the nation's lesser defenses. Meanwhile, Michigan State has won 6 in a row after a season opening road loss to California, and RB Javon Ringer has been impressive. But the Spartan defense has been less than stellar. Still, I like the Spartans at home. And, for the record, I hate Ohio State.
#16 Kansas @ #4 Oklahoma
Oklahoma owns the nation’s longest home win streak. Their defense has been far from overwhelming, and now middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, arguably their best defensive player, is expected to miss the rest of the season after tearing a knee ligament last week against Texas. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is a great player, but I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough offense to beat Oklahoma at home, especially with the Sooners coming off of last week’s upset loss to Texas.
#13 LSU @ South Carolina
When Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have won this season, it has been, somewhat surprisingly, with defense. They are 3rd in the nation in total defense. If they can keep this one close, and keep the score in the teens, they’ll have a shot at the upset. But LSU still has the great athletes they’ve always had, and should be a bit fired up after getting trounced by Florida last week.
Michigan @ #3 Penn State
Lots of people are climbing on the Penn State bandwagon. I’m not ready quite yet. But, let’s face it, this Michigan team is surprisingly lousy. Their offense ranks 109th in the nation. Penn State has lost 9 in a row to Michigan, but I don’t expect the streak to reach 10.
#11 Missouri @ #1 Texas
This is an upset waiting to happen, isn’t it? Texas coming off a huge win. Missouri coming off a disappointing loss. Both offenses are excellent, but Missouri’s Chase Daniel isn’t likely to have two bad games in a row, is he? Not that he was BAD in the loss to Oklahoma State – he passed for almost 400 yards, but he threw three second half interceptions. Colt McCoy was brilliant in the Longhorns’ win over Oklahoma. Can’t you see the roles reversing this week? Can’t you?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The First B(C)S Rankings
So, it’s October 15th, just a few days until the first official Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings of the 2008 season are released, and, in case you didn’t notice, I added a link to the official BCS homepage to the other links on the side of my blog page. It’s always handy to be able to access the BCS rankings at a moment’s notice. And, if you really need an instant headache, that’s a great place to start.
I decided, once again last night, to embark on a mission to understand the BCS ranking formula. I sat at my favorite establishment with a laptop, a tall glass of my favorite beverage and a few of my friends. Unfortunately, none of my friends are M.I.T. statisticians. So we sat there, confounded and confused, silently reading, and wasting, through our efforts to concentrate and comprehend, almost all of the money we spent (on booze) trying to relax.
I’m going to try to explain the BCS formula in the simplest possible terms. There are six computer ranking systems that are considered. These belong to: Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the (Wesley) Colley Matrix. Each has their own methodology, which, in every case except Anderson & Hester, is explained fully on their respective websites. For that reason alone, the Anderson & Hester numbers immediately suffer a credibility gap with me. Combine that with the fact that their website looks like it was the result of somebody’s tenth grade computer class project, and I find myself wondering how in God’s name they could have been included in the formula that helps determine the right to play for, arguably, the most prestigious of the championships in college sports. One can only hope they had to present a summary of their methodology to the BCS czars at some point, and that their methods are at least somewhat more scientific than, let’s say, pulling a number out of your ass. I urge you to go to the websites of each of the computer rankings included in the BCS (they can be found through the BCS link HERE), and read the explanation of their ranking process, and, if you understand all that, you might qualify to be the flight control officer for a space shuttle launch.
A team’s BCS ranking is based on the average of three things: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive (media) Poll, and a combined average of four of the six computer rankings – the highest and lowest of the six scores are dropped. One common fallacy is that the BCS formula somehow rewards teams for running up the score. This is not true, except to the degree that human voters in the Harris Interactive Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll may be influenced by an impressive margin of victory, and, therefore rank one team that wins convincingly higher than another that wins close games. Margin of victory is not a factor in the six computer rankings, and, in fact, that was a deliberate decision on the part of the BCS architects so that bad sportsmanship (i.e. runaway scores) would not be “encouraged or rewarded.”
I'm actually one of those people that thinks the BCS is relatively functional, and a better alternative to many of the much-heralded college football playoff scenarios that have been proposed, but that is a subject for another time, another column, probably during the offseason.
In the meantime, after an entire evening of digesting this information, along with a delicious salad and the better part of a dozen adult beverages, I decided it might be best to just blindly await the wisdom of the BCS czars when it is finally published , and not really try to understand it. After all, I now have a headache.
I decided, once again last night, to embark on a mission to understand the BCS ranking formula. I sat at my favorite establishment with a laptop, a tall glass of my favorite beverage and a few of my friends. Unfortunately, none of my friends are M.I.T. statisticians. So we sat there, confounded and confused, silently reading, and wasting, through our efforts to concentrate and comprehend, almost all of the money we spent (on booze) trying to relax.
I’m going to try to explain the BCS formula in the simplest possible terms. There are six computer ranking systems that are considered. These belong to: Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the (Wesley) Colley Matrix. Each has their own methodology, which, in every case except Anderson & Hester, is explained fully on their respective websites. For that reason alone, the Anderson & Hester numbers immediately suffer a credibility gap with me. Combine that with the fact that their website looks like it was the result of somebody’s tenth grade computer class project, and I find myself wondering how in God’s name they could have been included in the formula that helps determine the right to play for, arguably, the most prestigious of the championships in college sports. One can only hope they had to present a summary of their methodology to the BCS czars at some point, and that their methods are at least somewhat more scientific than, let’s say, pulling a number out of your ass. I urge you to go to the websites of each of the computer rankings included in the BCS (they can be found through the BCS link HERE), and read the explanation of their ranking process, and, if you understand all that, you might qualify to be the flight control officer for a space shuttle launch.
A team’s BCS ranking is based on the average of three things: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive (media) Poll, and a combined average of four of the six computer rankings – the highest and lowest of the six scores are dropped. One common fallacy is that the BCS formula somehow rewards teams for running up the score. This is not true, except to the degree that human voters in the Harris Interactive Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll may be influenced by an impressive margin of victory, and, therefore rank one team that wins convincingly higher than another that wins close games. Margin of victory is not a factor in the six computer rankings, and, in fact, that was a deliberate decision on the part of the BCS architects so that bad sportsmanship (i.e. runaway scores) would not be “encouraged or rewarded.”
I'm actually one of those people that thinks the BCS is relatively functional, and a better alternative to many of the much-heralded college football playoff scenarios that have been proposed, but that is a subject for another time, another column, probably during the offseason.
In the meantime, after an entire evening of digesting this information, along with a delicious salad and the better part of a dozen adult beverages, I decided it might be best to just blindly await the wisdom of the BCS czars when it is finally published , and not really try to understand it. After all, I now have a headache.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 7)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
Another Top 5 Bloodletting
For the second year in a row, week 5 proved to be dangerous to ranked teams. (Week 5 Afterbirth Here) Week 7 wasn't much different. Three of the top five teams lost when Texas beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beat Missouri and Florida beat LSU. The race for the national championship is once again wide open. The remaining unbeaten teams play each other, for the most part, and previously once-beaten teams like Georgia, Florida, Southern California and Ohio State have renewed hope.
Mister Happy
As a Gator fan, I must say I was extremely happy after Florida beat LSU Saturday night. Not as happy as this guy, but almost:
Oh wait. He's ringing a bell at a Texas Tech game.
Holy Toledo!
How miserable are Michigan fans right now? They're still trying to forget last year's shocking season-opening loss to Appalachian State, and then the Wolverines turn around and lose at home to Toledo. Yes, that Toledo. The Rockets. The team that was shut out at home by Ball State last week. Michigan is now 2-4, and, as a reward for their ineptitude, they get to visit unbeaten Penn State this week. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
The Burning Sunday Question
What if the hokey pokey really IS what it's all about?
Another Top 5 Bloodletting
For the second year in a row, week 5 proved to be dangerous to ranked teams. (Week 5 Afterbirth Here) Week 7 wasn't much different. Three of the top five teams lost when Texas beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beat Missouri and Florida beat LSU. The race for the national championship is once again wide open. The remaining unbeaten teams play each other, for the most part, and previously once-beaten teams like Georgia, Florida, Southern California and Ohio State have renewed hope.
Mister Happy
As a Gator fan, I must say I was extremely happy after Florida beat LSU Saturday night. Not as happy as this guy, but almost:
Oh wait. He's ringing a bell at a Texas Tech game.
Holy Toledo!
How miserable are Michigan fans right now? They're still trying to forget last year's shocking season-opening loss to Appalachian State, and then the Wolverines turn around and lose at home to Toledo. Yes, that Toledo. The Rockets. The team that was shut out at home by Ball State last week. Michigan is now 2-4, and, as a reward for their ineptitude, they get to visit unbeaten Penn State this week. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
The Burning Sunday Question
What if the hokey pokey really IS what it's all about?
Thursday, October 9, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest
So far this year, four ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents in Thursday night games. I don’t see it happening this week. Wake Forest usually plays relatively mistake-free football. Except for last week when they turned the ball over six times in the shocking home loss to Navy. Clemson needs this game to stay alive in the ACC race. A Demon Deacon win makes them the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division. I like the Deacons in this one.
Tennessee @ #10 Georgia
Until the loss to Alabama two weeks ago, the last team to beat Georgia was… that’s right, Tennessee. On October 6th, 2007. This year, though, Tennessee is not good. Really not good. They scored 13 points at home last week in a close win over Northern Illinois. This time, the Dawgs get their revenge.
#5 Texas vs #1 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
This is a hard game to pick. Each team is impressive on both side of the ball. Oklahoma has outscored opponents 103-3 in the first quarter this year. If Texas can withstand the early onslaught, they might keep this one close. My gut feeling is that Oklahoma is the better team. And, this time, I think my gut is right.
Notre Dame @ #22 North Carolina
These teams enter the game with identical 4-1 records. The Notre Dame offense seems to be coming around. And QB Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement in the last three games. But North Carolina is another team trying to claw their way back to respectability. Their defense is fast and physical. I like the Tarheels at home.
#4 LSU @ #11 Florida
This is another hard game to pick. On the surface, these two teams appear to be evenly matched. While Florida fans whine about the Gator offense, they lead the league in scoring. And LSU is second. Something tells me that the Gators are still trying to renew their focus after the disappointing home loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. It should be a great game.
#17 Oklahoma State @ #3 Missouri
Missouri is #2 two in the nation in scoring offense. Oklahoma State is #3. Let’s hope they have extra light bulbs for the scoreboard on standby during this game. Here’s an amazing statistic – Missouri has had 48 offensive possessions so far this season, and have yet to have a three-and-out. Missouri is a great passing team. Oklahoma State is great on the ground. I’d love to see the Cowboys pull an upset, but I think the Tigers win at home.
Nebraska @ #7 Texas Tech
Texas Tech has put up some huge offensive numbers, but against some pretty lousy opponents. The Red Raiders may not score 60 in this game, but they’re good enough to beat a Nebraska team still struggling to find an identity.
#6 Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State leads the Big Ten(+1) in total offense and total defense. Wisconsin doesn’t lead the Big Ten(+1) in anything, including the league standings, where they are 0-2. And about to be 0-3.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Kentucky leads the nation in scoring defense. Then again, three of their four wins are over Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Kentucky did have a decent showing against Alabama last week, losing 17-14. Part of me believes that Kentucky should win this one at home. The other part of me thinks the Cocks will win this one. I’m going with the other part of me.
#25 Ball State @ Western Kentucky
Quick, name the team that’s 11th in the nation in total offense. That’s right. Ball State. The Fighting Testes. Oh no, wait. The Cardinals. They’ve started a season 6-0 for the first time since 1965. And that includes a win over the Navy team that beat Wake Forest at home last week. And Western Kentucky is… well, Western Kentucky.
Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest
So far this year, four ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents in Thursday night games. I don’t see it happening this week. Wake Forest usually plays relatively mistake-free football. Except for last week when they turned the ball over six times in the shocking home loss to Navy. Clemson needs this game to stay alive in the ACC race. A Demon Deacon win makes them the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division. I like the Deacons in this one.
Tennessee @ #10 Georgia
Until the loss to Alabama two weeks ago, the last team to beat Georgia was… that’s right, Tennessee. On October 6th, 2007. This year, though, Tennessee is not good. Really not good. They scored 13 points at home last week in a close win over Northern Illinois. This time, the Dawgs get their revenge.
#5 Texas vs #1 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
This is a hard game to pick. Each team is impressive on both side of the ball. Oklahoma has outscored opponents 103-3 in the first quarter this year. If Texas can withstand the early onslaught, they might keep this one close. My gut feeling is that Oklahoma is the better team. And, this time, I think my gut is right.
Notre Dame @ #22 North Carolina
These teams enter the game with identical 4-1 records. The Notre Dame offense seems to be coming around. And QB Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement in the last three games. But North Carolina is another team trying to claw their way back to respectability. Their defense is fast and physical. I like the Tarheels at home.
#4 LSU @ #11 Florida
This is another hard game to pick. On the surface, these two teams appear to be evenly matched. While Florida fans whine about the Gator offense, they lead the league in scoring. And LSU is second. Something tells me that the Gators are still trying to renew their focus after the disappointing home loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. It should be a great game.
#17 Oklahoma State @ #3 Missouri
Missouri is #2 two in the nation in scoring offense. Oklahoma State is #3. Let’s hope they have extra light bulbs for the scoreboard on standby during this game. Here’s an amazing statistic – Missouri has had 48 offensive possessions so far this season, and have yet to have a three-and-out. Missouri is a great passing team. Oklahoma State is great on the ground. I’d love to see the Cowboys pull an upset, but I think the Tigers win at home.
Nebraska @ #7 Texas Tech
Texas Tech has put up some huge offensive numbers, but against some pretty lousy opponents. The Red Raiders may not score 60 in this game, but they’re good enough to beat a Nebraska team still struggling to find an identity.
#6 Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State leads the Big Ten(+1) in total offense and total defense. Wisconsin doesn’t lead the Big Ten(+1) in anything, including the league standings, where they are 0-2. And about to be 0-3.
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Kentucky leads the nation in scoring defense. Then again, three of their four wins are over Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Kentucky did have a decent showing against Alabama last week, losing 17-14. Part of me believes that Kentucky should win this one at home. The other part of me thinks the Cocks will win this one. I’m going with the other part of me.
#25 Ball State @ Western Kentucky
Quick, name the team that’s 11th in the nation in total offense. That’s right. Ball State. The Fighting Testes. Oh no, wait. The Cardinals. They’ve started a season 6-0 for the first time since 1965. And that includes a win over the Navy team that beat Wake Forest at home last week. And Western Kentucky is… well, Western Kentucky.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Afterbirth (Week 6)
You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.
The Calm After the Storm
Week 6 in college football was remarkably calm and predictable after the Top 25 massacre that happened last week. I was 10-0 on my Crystal Ball picks (*pats self on back*). Hey, when I suck, I'll admit it, so humor me on the rare occasions when I'm brilliant.
The only “upsets” were Pittsburgh’s Thursday night win at South Florida, and Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State. I suppose Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn could be considered an upset, but that was at least somewhat predictable (I predicted it!), and very enjoyable. You’ve heard of the Prevent Defense? Auburn is apparently running the Prevent Offense. LSU's close win over Auburn is suddenly looking a bit less impressive.
Speaking of the Tigers...
If you're a Gator fan, and I am, there is only one thought that will pervade every waking moment (and some of the sleeping ones) during the upcoming week:
Conference Cannibalism
The Big 12 is finding out what it's like to be in the SEC, where you eat your own on a weekly basis. It's so difficult to escape the SEC regular season schedule unbeaten. Then toss in the league championship game, and it's a recipe for a one or two loss season, even for the best of teams. Only in recent years have the alleged experts decided that a one or two loss SEC team is still better than most of the teams out there.
This week, Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout. Which means one of the nation's top five teams will lose. I would argue that Oklahoma and Missouri are the two best teams around. But, assuming both teams continue to win in the regular season, one of them will beat the other in the Big 12 championship game. The loser of that game won't play for the national championship, but they may be, arguably, better than at least one of the teams that does.
The Calm After the Storm
Week 6 in college football was remarkably calm and predictable after the Top 25 massacre that happened last week. I was 10-0 on my Crystal Ball picks (*pats self on back*). Hey, when I suck, I'll admit it, so humor me on the rare occasions when I'm brilliant.
The only “upsets” were Pittsburgh’s Thursday night win at South Florida, and Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State. I suppose Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn could be considered an upset, but that was at least somewhat predictable (I predicted it!), and very enjoyable. You’ve heard of the Prevent Defense? Auburn is apparently running the Prevent Offense. LSU's close win over Auburn is suddenly looking a bit less impressive.
Speaking of the Tigers...
If you're a Gator fan, and I am, there is only one thought that will pervade every waking moment (and some of the sleeping ones) during the upcoming week:
Conference Cannibalism
The Big 12 is finding out what it's like to be in the SEC, where you eat your own on a weekly basis. It's so difficult to escape the SEC regular season schedule unbeaten. Then toss in the league championship game, and it's a recipe for a one or two loss season, even for the best of teams. Only in recent years have the alleged experts decided that a one or two loss SEC team is still better than most of the teams out there.
This week, Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout. Which means one of the nation's top five teams will lose. I would argue that Oklahoma and Missouri are the two best teams around. But, assuming both teams continue to win in the regular season, one of them will beat the other in the Big 12 championship game. The loser of that game won't play for the national championship, but they may be, arguably, better than at least one of the teams that does.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
My Crystal Ball Says...
...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.
Stanford @ Notre Dame
The Cardinal's 3-2 start has them believing they have a right to talk trash about the Irish. I don't know why. Notre Dame, on the other hand, found some offense in last week's win over Purdue. Notre Dame is 88th in the nation in total offense. Stanford is 105th. Give me the Irish at home.
#24 Connecticut @ North Carolina
Connecticut QB Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot in the win over Louisville, so the Huskies must rely on Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer. Connecticut's Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing, but North Carolina has a solid, physical defense. And they're playing at home.
#23 Oregon @ Southern California
If Oregon could keep a quarterback healthy, they might have a chance in this game. I think the Ducks can keep it close, but the Trojans have too many horses.
#14 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin
The Badger band is suspended for the game for alleged incidents of hazing and sexual misconduct. That will be the difference in the game, right? Nah. Once again, the Badgers get exposed as pretenders. This game should be close, but look for the Buckeyes to find ways to maximize Terrelle Pryor's effectiveness.
#13 Auburn @ #19 Vanderbilt
It’s hard not to root for Vanderbilt – even if only out of sympathy for their decades of football futility. They play smart football – what a shock – ranking second in the nation in fewest penalties per game, and leading the nation in turnover margin. Auburn’s offense is a work in progress, to put it kindly. I like the Commodores.
#12 Florida @ Arkansas
This game is simple. Arkansas is not very good. Florida is very angry.
Florida State @ Miami
This is always a hard-hitting, entertaining game. Both teams have very good defenses, and very average offenses. Somehow, the 'Noles pull this one off.
#5 Texas @ Colorado
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 against Colorado. I don't think this Longhorn team is as good as past incarnations, but they are good enough to beat the Buffs.
#4 Missouri @ Nebraska
The Huskers have beaten Missouri 15 straight times in Lincoln. The streak stops here. Missouri has two legitimate Heisman candidates in QB Chase Daniel and reciever Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska still has a shred of the Big Red pride, and that alone may help them keep the game close. For about five minutes.
Illinois @ Michigan
Wolverine fans think their season turned around last week with the surprising upset of Wisconsin. I don't. I think Illinois has a few too many weapons, and Michigan not quite enough.
Stanford @ Notre Dame
The Cardinal's 3-2 start has them believing they have a right to talk trash about the Irish. I don't know why. Notre Dame, on the other hand, found some offense in last week's win over Purdue. Notre Dame is 88th in the nation in total offense. Stanford is 105th. Give me the Irish at home.
#24 Connecticut @ North Carolina
Connecticut QB Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot in the win over Louisville, so the Huskies must rely on Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer. Connecticut's Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing, but North Carolina has a solid, physical defense. And they're playing at home.
#23 Oregon @ Southern California
If Oregon could keep a quarterback healthy, they might have a chance in this game. I think the Ducks can keep it close, but the Trojans have too many horses.
#14 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin
The Badger band is suspended for the game for alleged incidents of hazing and sexual misconduct. That will be the difference in the game, right? Nah. Once again, the Badgers get exposed as pretenders. This game should be close, but look for the Buckeyes to find ways to maximize Terrelle Pryor's effectiveness.
#13 Auburn @ #19 Vanderbilt
It’s hard not to root for Vanderbilt – even if only out of sympathy for their decades of football futility. They play smart football – what a shock – ranking second in the nation in fewest penalties per game, and leading the nation in turnover margin. Auburn’s offense is a work in progress, to put it kindly. I like the Commodores.
#12 Florida @ Arkansas
This game is simple. Arkansas is not very good. Florida is very angry.
Florida State @ Miami
This is always a hard-hitting, entertaining game. Both teams have very good defenses, and very average offenses. Somehow, the 'Noles pull this one off.
#5 Texas @ Colorado
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 against Colorado. I don't think this Longhorn team is as good as past incarnations, but they are good enough to beat the Buffs.
#4 Missouri @ Nebraska
The Huskers have beaten Missouri 15 straight times in Lincoln. The streak stops here. Missouri has two legitimate Heisman candidates in QB Chase Daniel and reciever Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska still has a shred of the Big Red pride, and that alone may help them keep the game close. For about five minutes.
Illinois @ Michigan
Wolverine fans think their season turned around last week with the surprising upset of Wisconsin. I don't. I think Illinois has a few too many weapons, and Michigan not quite enough.
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