Always be cautious with the way you interpret and apply statistics. Somewhere, there is a set of numbers that, when manipulated and presented in a certain way, can be used to support almost any argument.
I used to wonder about that when I saw those old commercials that said 9 out of 10 dentists surveyed recommend such and such a chewing gum. Even then, I thought, exactly how was that question phrased?
Dear Dentist: Which are you more inclined to recommend for your patients? (A) Chewing Dentyne, or (B) Chewing a mouthful of greasy gravel from an old railroad bed.
It does make you wonder about the 1 out of 10 that chose greasy gravel. I'm guessing that most of them were from Tennessee.
When Wisconsin's line clicks, it wins: the Badgers were 10-0 when rushing for more than 150 yards last year and 0-3 when rushing for less; and they were 9-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks and 1-3 when allowing three or more.
On the surface, that sounds fairly impressive. It almost makes you want to believe in Wisconsin. But let's look a little deeper, shall we?
Let's consider the regular season (bowl game stats are often screwy). Wisconsin was 9-3. As Forde points out, in each of the the nine wins, they had 150 or more yards rushing. In each of the three losses, they had less than 150 (118, 87 and 99 respectively).
Northwestern didn't exactly have a great defense, but Wisconsin fell behind early, and, I think, got away from their game plan in a 33-31 loss.
Forde's Translation: The Badgers have a great offensive line that makes them a potential force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.
My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.
Even as he praises Wisconsin, he does go on to tell us that, against Ohio State and Iowa - their two best opponents last year - the Badgers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and gave up 10 sacks.
Forde's Translation: If their admittedly mammoth and allegedly great offensive line can improve on last year's performance in those big games, they have the potential to be a force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.
My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.
So, as we enter this sure-to-be-terrific college football season, I urge you to remember that numbers lie. Sometimes. Unless you read them in one of my columns, in which case, they represent the absolute truth.
Oh wow. It's August... whatever the heck the date is... and, you know what that means! It's time to get Illegal Procedure wound up to full speed. Or at least take it out of neutral...
There are plenty of boring sites, mostly full of speculative garbage, that help you follow recruiting or spring practice or the NFL draft. I don't do any of that. Mostly, during the off-season, I drink beer. Then, once college football gets started, I drink more beer! Only I watch college football at the same time.
It's a remarkable system. I highly recommend it.
At the beginning of the season, I don't like to spend much time looking back. Last year is done and gone. But I don't like to look too far forward either. Should we really be talking about the favorites for the Heisman right now? It's August... whatever the heck the date is... for God's sake.
So I'm going to kind of look back and look ahead at the same time, and talk about things I will miss in this sure-to-be-terrific 2010 college football season...
Tim Tebow
Come on. You know you're going to miss him. He was the poster child for college football for the last three years. He is still the center of attention in the NFL despite the fact that he has yet to play a meaningful down for the Denver Broncos. He was a Heisman Trophy winner, a conference champion (twice) a national champion (twice), and a class act.
And he may have had the most publicized concussion in the history of mankind.
Even those who claimed to hate him secretly wished they could have him as their quarterback. It's okay, you guys. You can admit it now. It's time to fess up.
I thought his career in college football was nothing short of historic (and I said so here). I hope he wins a couple of Super Bowls to go with the rest of his football credentials.
Just for kicks, I did a Google search for his name and came up with 2,030,000 results. Good Lord.
Speaking of the Lord...
The Notre Dame Mystique
If, indeed, there ever was a Notre Dame mystique, now that it is 2010 and the Irish have been mediocre for more than two decades, can we all agree that the mystique is gone? Vanished? Kaput?
As if we didn't have enough proof on the football field, Touchdown Jesus was struck by lightning in June, and subsequently burned to the ground. Granted, it was a Touchdown Jesus in Monroe, Ohio, and not the one that has blessed Irish victories over the years, but that can't be a good omen, can it?
Notre Dame's Touchdown Jesus is still standing, but that's the only thing in South Bend about which that can be said.
I'd like to quote from a little piece I wrote last November called, When Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling (you can find it here):
Think about this for a minute. If you are an eighteen year old senior in high school now, and you probably didn't really start consciously watching college games on television until you were twelve or thirteen, that means your first meaningful memories of Notre Dame football were seeing them suffer through seasons of 5-7 (2003) and 6-6 (2004), and then watching them fire their second coach in four years.
Since I wrote that, they finished last season with a 6-6 record, fired Charlie Weis, and hired a good old Irishman named Brian Kelly. Notre Dame fans apparently expect Kelly to immediately improve their offense, and then produce a defense out of thin air. Good luck.
When was the last time anybody besides Beano Cook seriously considered the Irish to be a contender for the national championship? Beano has more chins than the Irish had victories last season. And we're still waiting for Ron Powlus to claim one of the three Heisman's he was supposed to win.
Here's an interesting statistic I stole from somewhere: Utah has more unbeaten seasons in the last six years (two) than Notre Dame has in the last thirty. That's particularly relevant because the Utes visit South Bend on November 13.
As an aside, and just for the record, nobody should ever mention the Utes without also allowing you to view this classic scene from My Cousin Vinny:
Anyway...
Look at Notre Dame's first 6 games this year- Purdue, Michigan, at Michigan State, Stanford, at Boston College, and Pittsburgh. Now try to convince me they're going to be better than 3-3 coming out of that stretch.
The game in Baltimore against Navy is no gimme (haven't the Middies taken 2 of the last 3 from the Irish?). In addition to the aforementioned game with Utah, there is the season finale at USC. If, with a bit of help from above, they manage a 4-2 start, Notre Dame will still have at least three tough games remaining on their schedule. And, with two losses more than likely before they even get past the second week of October, they will revert to being what they have been for the last twenty years - an afterthought.
Wave good-bye. The Notre Dame Mystique. Gone.
Bobby Bowden
As a Gator fan, there were few people that I despised over the years as much as Bobby Bowden. In retrospect, I think that was a bit unfair. I often thought he was a lax disciplinarian. I thought he tolerated a defense that stretched the limits of the rules of sportsmanship in an effort to intimidate. And I thought his whole "dadgummit" personality was mostly just an act to curry favor with the media.
I think I was at least partly right, but, at the same time, let's face it; I despised him because the Seminoles inflicted some serious pain on Florida under his direction. Although the Gators still have a substantial lead in the overall series (33-19-2), the most telling statistic is the record during the Spurrier years, which many consider the beginning of the golden era of the Gator Nation. While Steve Spurrier went 117-19 against everybody else in college football from 1990 to 2001, his record against Florida State was a frustrating 5-8-1.
But even that didn't keep me from feeling sympathy for Bowden when certain Seminoles decided to run him off campus at the end of last season.
In my view, he had earned the right to coach as long as he wanted to. The way he was tossed aside made me a little nauseous.
Once again, I'd like to quote from a piece I wrote in October last year called Stand Still Bobby While I Get That Knife Out of Your Back (you can find it here).
Bobby Bowden gave you a football program that was worth watching, when you actually bothered to show up, and now you want to unceremoniously shove him out the door. Unbelievable.
You were willing to sit back and gloat during the decade and a half that your Seminoles dominated college football like no other team ever has. Let Bowden enjoy the twilight of his coaching career as much as you enjoyed its prime.
But, the idiots in charge sent him packing, and I have to say I will miss seeing him on the sidelines this year. The good news is - now I can go back to hating Florida State without reservation.
Rational Numbers
To mathematicians, a rational number is any number that can be expressed as the quotient a/b of two integers, with the denominator b not equal to zero. I was never good at math, and I am only somewhat good at being rational. But will someone please drive directly to the conference offices of the Big 10 and the Big
12 and ask them what the heck they think they're doing?
As it was, the rest of the nation collectively giggled for a few years when Penn State joined the Big 10 in 1993, thus making it an 11 team league. But we kind of got used to it. And I suppose you have to give them credit for coming up with the clever logo that had an "11" conveniently embedded in it.
Then came the off-season shuffling this year that saw Nebraska leave the Big 12 to join the Big 10, and Colorado leave the Big 12 to join the Pac 10. None of this will take effect until after this season ends, but what you will end up with is a Big 10 that has 12 teams, and a Big 12 that has 10 teams.
But both conferences are keeping their old names. So much for rational numbers.
Yes, I know. It sounds like something from a Woody Allen movie. And I would probably laugh if it wasn't so... dumb. Seriously.
While all this was going on, the Pac 10 also lured Utah away from the Mountain West. But at least the Pac 10 is planning to change their name to the Pac 12.
Note to self: if ever I am the founder of a college athletic conference, don't put a number in the name.
Shameless Self-Promotion:
If you enjoy this blog, share it with friends. Heck, you can share it with enemies if you want. Comments are always appreciated. You can leave comments here on the blog. You can e-mail me at illegalprocedureblog@gmail.com. Or you can send me messages by carrier pigeon if you happen to have a bird trained to follow the scent of Stella Artois or Conundrum.
I'm ready for some college football!!
One last thing. I'd like to introduce a new feature that I will use at random when it pleases me. It is nothing more than a handy wave file designed to make you smile. I call it...
I was a professional sportswriter for a while. I swear. Then I discovered that I hate professional sportswriters. So now I do this just to bug them. And you.
If you like it, share it. If you don't, you obviously have poor taste. Haha! Just kidding. Sort of.
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