When Numbers Lie

Always be cautious with the way you interpret and apply statistics.  Somewhere, there is a set of numbers that, when manipulated and presented in a certain way, can be used to support almost any argument.

I used to wonder about that when I saw those old commercials that said 9 out of 10 dentists surveyed recommend such and such a chewing gum.  Even then, I thought, exactly how was that question phrased?

Dear Dentist:  Which are you more inclined to recommend for your patients?  (A)  Chewing Dentyne, or (B) Chewing a mouthful of greasy gravel from an old railroad bed.

It does make you wonder about the 1 out of 10 that chose greasy gravel.  I'm guessing that most of them were from Tennessee. 

And the rest were probably from Georgia.

But, anyway...

I thought about the use of statistics when I read Pat Forde's latest column on ESPN.com.  I actually like Pat Forde.  Sometimes.  But, in support of his inclination to believe Wisconsin can be a contender in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference, he threw out the following stat: 

When Wisconsin's line clicks, it wins: the Badgers were 10-0 when rushing for more than 150 yards last year and 0-3 when rushing for less; and they were 9-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks and 1-3 when allowing three or more.

On the  surface, that sounds fairly impressive.  It almost makes you want to believe in Wisconsin. But let's look a little deeper, shall we?

Let's consider the regular season (bowl game stats are often screwy).  Wisconsin was 9-3.  As Forde points out, in each of the the nine wins, they had 150 or more yards rushing.  In each of the three losses, they had less than 150 (118, 87 and 99 respectively).

Let's consider the opponents.  In the nine wins, the Badgers beat Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Hawaii.  In the three losses, they choked against Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. 

Northwestern didn't exactly have a great defense, but Wisconsin fell behind early, and, I think, got away from their game plan in a 33-31 loss.

Forde's Translation: The Badgers have a great offensive line that makes them a potential force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

Even as he praises Wisconsin, he does go on to tell us that, against Ohio State and Iowa - their two best opponents last year - the Badgers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and gave up 10 sacks.

Forde's Translation: If their admittedly mammoth and allegedly great offensive line can improve on last year's performance in those big games, they have the potential to be a force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

So, as we enter this sure-to-be-terrific college football season, I urge you to remember that numbers lie.  Sometimes.  Unless you read them in one of my columns, in which case, they represent the absolute truth.

This column was brought to you by Dos Equis.




Although, I must admit I was rather disappointed when I found out that I was not the most interesting man in the world...

PS: Apologies in advance to my friend Bart - a longtime Badger fan - and his lovely wife Suzy, who may or may not ever speak to me again.