When Numbers Lie

Always be cautious with the way you interpret and apply statistics.  Somewhere, there is a set of numbers that, when manipulated and presented in a certain way, can be used to support almost any argument.

I used to wonder about that when I saw those old commercials that said 9 out of 10 dentists surveyed recommend such and such a chewing gum.  Even then, I thought, exactly how was that question phrased?

Dear Dentist:  Which are you more inclined to recommend for your patients?  (A)  Chewing Dentyne, or (B) Chewing a mouthful of greasy gravel from an old railroad bed.

It does make you wonder about the 1 out of 10 that chose greasy gravel.  I'm guessing that most of them were from Tennessee. 

And the rest were probably from Georgia.

But, anyway...

I thought about the use of statistics when I read Pat Forde's latest column on ESPN.com.  I actually like Pat Forde.  Sometimes.  But, in support of his inclination to believe Wisconsin can be a contender in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference, he threw out the following stat: 

When Wisconsin's line clicks, it wins: the Badgers were 10-0 when rushing for more than 150 yards last year and 0-3 when rushing for less; and they were 9-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks and 1-3 when allowing three or more.

On the  surface, that sounds fairly impressive.  It almost makes you want to believe in Wisconsin. But let's look a little deeper, shall we?

Let's consider the regular season (bowl game stats are often screwy).  Wisconsin was 9-3.  As Forde points out, in each of the the nine wins, they had 150 or more yards rushing.  In each of the three losses, they had less than 150 (118, 87 and 99 respectively).

Let's consider the opponents.  In the nine wins, the Badgers beat Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Hawaii.  In the three losses, they choked against Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. 

Northwestern didn't exactly have a great defense, but Wisconsin fell behind early, and, I think, got away from their game plan in a 33-31 loss.

Forde's Translation: The Badgers have a great offensive line that makes them a potential force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

Even as he praises Wisconsin, he does go on to tell us that, against Ohio State and Iowa - their two best opponents last year - the Badgers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and gave up 10 sacks.

Forde's Translation: If their admittedly mammoth and allegedly great offensive line can improve on last year's performance in those big games, they have the potential to be a force in the Big 10 Plus 1, Soon to Have 12 Conference.

My translation: The Badgers are terrible against teams that are actually... you know... good.

So, as we enter this sure-to-be-terrific college football season, I urge you to remember that numbers lie.  Sometimes.  Unless you read them in one of my columns, in which case, they represent the absolute truth.

This column was brought to you by Dos Equis.




Although, I must admit I was rather disappointed when I found out that I was not the most interesting man in the world...

PS: Apologies in advance to my friend Bart - a longtime Badger fan - and his lovely wife Suzy, who may or may not ever speak to me again.

Upon Further Review (Week 11)

Surrender. On Two. Ready. Break.

Some folks in Big Ten country want us to believe that Saturday's game between Iowa and Ohio State
proved that the Buckeyes are a worthy conference champion, and the Hawkeyes deserve an at-large BCS bowl bid.

I guess the Big Ten has to have some sort of champion.  I don't know why they expect the rest of the college football world to care about a league that still hasn't figured out how many teams belong to it.

But an at-large BCS bid for Iowa?  Seriously?

Saturday's game was a 27-24 affair, decided in overtime.  While it sounds like it should have been exciting, it was most noteworthy for the fact that, once the score was tied at 24 late in regulation, neither team made a serious attempt to win.

Given the ball on their own 18 yard line with 2:37 remaining, Buckeye coach Jim Tressel managed to run five plays - three of them handoffs - to gain a grand total of 13 yards before punting to Iowa.

Then, Iowa, after fielding the punt, had the ball at their own 33 yard line with 52 seconds and two timeouts remaining.  With a great opportunity to try to get into position for a game-winning field goal, Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz decided to run out the clock and hope for the best in overtime.

This was two teams playing not to lose.  And it was truly pathetic.

Midwest football is about as exciting as boiled cabbage anyway, but this display of mediocrity prompted CBS Sports.com writer Gregg Doyel to suggest that the Big Ten banner should be a white flag.

Ohio State, by virtue of winning the league, will stumble into the Rose Bowl, and probably lose badly to whatever Pac 10 opponent they face.  But do we really need to reward this Iowa team with a BCS bowl berth?

Let's examine their resume.

They beat Arizona 27-17 in Iowa City on September 19. 

It seemed like a good win at the time.  But the Wildcats are now 6-3, and they end the season with Oregon, at Arizona State and at USC.  That looks like a 7-5 finish to me.  Maybe.

The following week, Iowa beat Penn State 21-10 in Happy Valley. 

Again, it seemed like a good win at the time.  But let's tell it like it is.  Joe Paterno has been a class act for his entire coaching career.  He has kept the Penn State football program mostly clean while achieving frequent success on the field.  In my view, he has earned the right to coach there until giant, hairy cockroaches take over the Earth, if that's what he chooses to do.  But that doesn't, in any way, mean that this year's Penn State squad is good.  Their most impressive win is over Temple.  The Owls.

On October 17, the Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin. 

They are a very respectable 8-2, but, upon closer examination, they lost to the only two ranked opponents they played.  Translation: the Badgers are great in games that don't matter.

Otherwise, Iowa struggled with the likes of Northern Iowa (a 17-16 win) and Arkansas State (a 24-21 win).

So that brings us back to Saturday's game in Columbus.  In a tie game, with the league title and its associated Rose Bowl berth on the line, Kirk Ferentz ordered his team to cower in the huddle and then take a knee.

In what was possibly the most appropriate ending for such a display of gutlessness, Iowa managed to lose 16 yards on their first three plays in overtime, and throw an interception on 4th and 26.

Ohio State took over and ran the ball three times, gaining three entire yards, before trotting the kicker on to the field for the game winner.

So Ohio State (9-2), with a game remaining at Michigan, managed to back into a Rose Bowl.  And Iowa (9-2), with one game remaining against Minnesota, may have backed into a Fiesta Bowl simply by being the second least courageous team in the Big Ten.

It doesn't seem quite right.

There's a little part of me, though, that wants to see Iowa in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State (10-0) - the scenario that seems most likely right now. 

At least the Hawkeyes would find out what it's like to face a team that always plays to win.

Bulls in September. Puppies Afterward.

 South Florida coach Jim Leavitt has a problem.  He needs to find a way to make his players understand that the season lasts all the way through November.  His teams have gained national recognition with fast starts, but also gained a reputation for slow finishes.

Since 2007, the Bulls are 13-0 in games played in September, but 11-13 in the rest of their games, including 6-10 in the month of October.  And it's not because they've played nothing but patsies early in the year.

On Septmber 8, 2007, they won 26-23 at Auburn.  On September 12 of last year, they beat a highly-regarded Kansas team in Tampa 37-34.  This year, they beat Florida State 17-7 in Tallahassee on September 26. 

But, after starting the season 5-0, they've now lost three of their last four, and Thursday's game against Rutgers was one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a college football team.

The Bulls (6-3) managed only 159 yards of total offense in the game, had four turnovers, and were totally overwhelmed by a Scarlet Knights team that really doesn't have many stars.

Afterward, Leavitt said, "They just beat the dog out of us."

With remaining games against Louisville, Miami, and at Connecticut, the Bulls are hoping there's at least a little dog left.

Upon Further Further Review (Week 10)

This week, the usual Monday feature is called Upon Further Further Review because, even with the help of video replay officials, college football referees can't seem to get it right...

ConCussed



If you have yet to see this fairly horrifying video of California's Jahvid Best going airborne for a touchdown against Oregon State, and landing on his head, it is not for the faint of heart.

Later, it was revealed that Best had missed two days of practice during the week because of a slight concussion suffered in the win at Arizona State.

While I am glad that it appears Best will be fine, what I want to know is where are all of the alleged experts who were ready to crucify Urban Meyer if Tim Tebow had emerged from the LSU game with anything more than a hangnail?

Why aren't they upset about this?

Irish Bad. Wolverines Worse

Way back in September, after Michigan's exciting win over Notre Dame, many of the alleged experts wanted us to believe that both of these traditional powers had returned to their rightful place of national prominence.

The day after the game, ESPN.com's Big Ten blogger Adam Rittenberg titled his entry "Michigan is back."

CBSSports.com's Gregg Doyel drooled, "...for close to four hours Saturday, Notre Dame and Michigan mattered again. And you might want to get used to it. Because they're back."

I thought they were wrong at the time, and I said so.

I'm wondering how they feel now.

Saturday, Notre Dame lost at home to Navy to fall to 6-3, and has games remaining at #12 Pittsburgh, against Connecticut, and at Stanford. And that Stanford game is looking tougher and tougher.

Michigan just lost at home to Purdue to fall to 5-5, and they're in the midst of a three game losing streak. They finish at #20 Wisconsin, and at home against #11 Ohio State.

Both coaches may be on the hot seat. And, in the case of Charlie Weis, that's a big seat.

Temple Strikes Gold(en)

Despite the incredibly stupid piece of propaganda included here, Temple coach Al Golden has to be a unanimous choice for Coach of the Year, doesn't he?

In the three years before Golden arrived in Philly, the Owls were 3-31.

Now, at 7-2, they are bowl-eligible for the first time since 1990. They haven't actually been to a bowl since 1979, when they beat California in the Garden State Bowl to finish 10-2.

If they win out, they will be the champions of the East Division of the MAC, and earn a berth in the league championship game.

Their last three games: at Akron, Kent State, at Ohio.

The problem: they average 16,646 fans at their home games. Bowl games aren't terribly inclined to invite a team that's going to leave a bunch of seats empty.

Okay, I Was Possibly Not Correct

I would like to apologize to anyone who read some of the things I've written and, from that, gotten the impression that I thought Penn State was a good team. I had that impression, but I was possibly... not correct.

Penn State is 8-2, but they have beaten a grand total of three teams that have winning records. Two of those teams were Temple and Eastern Illinois.

Given two chances to prove they can compete with the pack leaders in the Big Ten, they choked horribly. And both of those occasions were at home.

First, they were manhandled by Iowa in a 21-10 loss that wasn't as close as the score might indicate. Then came Saturday's 24-7 bludgeoning by an Ohio State team that has looked remarkably average until now.

There's always a temptation to think that Joe Pa is going to field a quality team, but, while this year's Nittany Lions will finish with a decent won-loss record, it's mostly because they've played a weak schedule.