Monday, January 5, 2009

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

This is the nearly complete edition of the special bowl season picks. Bet you can't wait until the next one, when I pick the BIG GAME!!

Texas vs Ohio State (Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
I should be clear about one thing right now, if you've never read my blog before; I hate Ohio State. What's up with the sweatervest for Christ's sake? This isn't the back nine at the local country club. It's a football game. Having said that, I think Ohio State has a chance to win.

Texas has Colt McCoy. And, more and more, I'm starting to think HE should have won the Heisman. He completes an amazing 78% of his passes, and, oh by the way, he leads the team in rushing. Without him, the Longhorn offense wouldn't be worth a pile of prairie dog dung. They also happen to be one of the few Big 12 teams that plays something resembling defense (18th in the nation in scoring defense, 49th in total defense - the best national rankings of any Big 12 defense). On top of that, they are nine point favorites.

Here is why they are going to lose...

Buckeye running back Beanie Wells is healthy. They are a different team when he can pile up yardage on the ground. Add QB Terrelle Pryor's scrambling ability to that (since his passing ability is marginal - the Buckeyes are 105th in the nation in passing offense), and it makes for some serious defensive problems. In Ohio State's last three games - wins over Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan - they attempted 16, 10 and 16 passes, respectively. But in those same games, they rushed for 244, 305 and 232 yards, respectively, and scored 45, 30 and 42 points. If the Buckeyes can run with Wells and Pryor, keep Colt McCoy and the Longhorn offense on the bench, and avoid costly turnovers, they can, and will, win.

There is speculation that Jim Tressel will play senior Todd Boeckman at QB, at least part of the time. But he doesn't give the Buckeyes their best chance to win. Pryor does. If the sweatervest genius has any brains at all - and that is debatable - he will put the ball, and the game, in the hands of Pryor and Wells.

There is one other factor as well. The Texas kids can talk all they want, but I'm not convinced that they're excited to be in this game. Sure, they got screwed by the Big 12 with the tiebreaker formula that put Oklahoma in the league championship game despite the fact that Texas beat them in the regular season, but if they are going to spend the night sulking - like the stinking Crimson Tide did in the Sugar Bowl - they are going to lose like the stinking Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl.

I hate Ohio State. But I think they win this one. They can't possibly choke away three straight BCS bowl games, can they?

Ball State vs Tulsa (GMAC Bowl)
This is yet another bowl matchup that has the potential to be very entertaining. It is one of just six of this year's bowl games in which both teams have ten or more wins (Ball State is 12-1, Tulsa is 10-3).

Ball State QB Nate Davis is the real mccoy (not Colt). He is the MAC Player of the Year. He is 7th in the nation in passing efficiency. That is amazing. Guess who is ranked ahead of him. Tulsa QB David Johnson (2nd in the nation).

Both teams lost their conference championship games - Tulsa to East Carolina, Ball State to Buffalo. Tulsa comes into the game having lost three of their last five. The only blemish on Ball State's record was the disapointing loss to Buffalo.

This should be a fun, high-scoring affair. You have to like Tulsa's ability to score points. And you have to wonder if the Fighting Testes are still hurting from losing their bid for an undefeated season. I'll take the Golden Hurricane.

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