Thursday, October 29, 2009

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.


Central Michigan at Boston College - I like Central Michigan. Every time I think of them, I am reminded of the great Gordon Lightfoot song The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. "The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down..." I love that song. These Chippewas probably have the best quarterback you've never heard of. Dan LeFevour is 12th in the nation in passing efficiency, which puts him ahead of better-known names like Houston's Case Keenum, and USC's Matt Barkley. The biggest improvement for Central Michigan this year has come on defense. After allowing 30 points per game last year, this season they are allowing just 15. Their only loss on the way to a 7-1 record came in the season opener at Arizona. Boston College brings a 5-3 record into the game. Their signature win is a 7 point upset of an inconsistent Florida State team, and they are coming off a disappointing finish in last week's 20-16 loss at Notre Dame. The Chippewa strategy should be obvious; stop the BC running game, and force Eagle QB Dave Shinskie to make plays. Shinskie has been shaky at times. He threw for 279 yards against the Irish, but also threw 3 interceptions. When the "gales of November came early" Chestnut Hill has been a tough place to win. But Saturday's forecast calls for a crisp, sunny day. This would be a huge win for the Chippewas, and, if they can get an early lead, I think they'll pull off the upset.

Louisiana Tech at Idaho - It turns out that Idaho has more than just potatoes. They also have a pretty good football team. Since I'm officially on their bandwagon now, I thought I'd feature one of their games here. When the Vandals (I love that name) reached the 6 win mark two weeks ago, they had already doubled their win total of the last two seasons combined. Now that they are bowl-eligible, and with games against Fresno State and Boise State still to come, Idaho needs this win to continue to improve their bowl status. Head coach Robb Akey has changed the attitude in Moscow, and the Vandals (6-2) have demonstrated some previously untapped toughness; they are 3-0 in games decided by 4 points or less. Louisiana Tech (3-4), on the other hand, is just not very good. They are coached by Derek Dooley, son of legendary coach Vince Dooley. In some strange way, Derek's struggles in Ruston seem to be payback for all the years of suffering his dad caused me when he coached at Georgia. What are the odds that father and son would both coach at schools whose mascot is Bulldogs? This Saturday, the suffering will continue, as the
Vandals sack this pack of Bulldogs.

#22 South Carolina at Tennessee - This should be a really interesting game. Both teams have good defenses and sketchy offenses. The Volunteer defense hasn't surrendered an offensive touchdown since the 4th quarter of the Auburn game - two games ago. The Gamecocks (6-2) are the worst team in the SEC in pass protection - having allowed 22 sacks, but the Vols haven't had a sack in 4 games now. Gamecock freshman receiver Alshon Jeffery has had a busy month - he has 21 receptions for 414 yards and five touchdowns in the last 4 games. Both quarterbacks are inconsistent. When SC's Stephen Garcia and UT's Jonathon Crompton are good, they can be really good. When they are bad, they look like Pop Warner kids trying to play with the big boys. Despite all the bluster from loudmouth coach Lane Kiffin, Tennessee is 3-4. One thing Loudmouth Lane will find out eventually is that there are certain people in the SEC you just don't want to aggravate. Steve Spurrier is one of those people. When he holds a grudge, it's forever. I think Tennessee gave a great effort against Alabama last week, so much so that I don't think they can do it again this week. I have a feeling the Gamecocks will pull the upset, and, afterward, Spurrier will provide the college football world with one of those stinging verbal barbs for which he is (in)famous.

#5 USC at #10 Oregon - Something about USC (6-1) always makes me root against them. I'm not sure what it is. For one thing, you'd have a hard time convincing me that Reggie Bush is the only player they ever paid, but that's another story. I was nearly delirious when the Trojans choked in Seattle. Now they have a chance to do it in Eugene. Something about the Pacific Northwest... Tight end Anthony McCoy has become one of Matt Barkley's favorite targets, but he has a sprained ankle, and probably won't play. Everyone wants to tell me how good USC's defense is. You know where they rank nationally? They are 16th. That's definitely good. You know who is ranked ahead of them? Army (15th in total defense). Still scared? Meanwhile, since the season-opening beatdown by Boise State, Oregon (6-1) has been unbeatable. Literally. QB Jeremiah Masoli has been on fire, although hobbled by a lingering knee injury. The Duck defense has chipped in too, forcing 19 turnovers, which ties them for tops in the Pac 10 in that category. Sportswriters like ESPN's Ted Miller tell us that Oregon can't possibly line up and run right at USC. I think they can. And they will.

#1 Florida vs Georgia (in Jacksonville) - If you've never been to the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, or don't know much about it, the depth of the passion is hard to understand. Earlier this week, Georgia (4-3) linebacker Rennie Curran may have said it best, "The hatred is already there with the fans, the coaches, everyone. There's no other way to put it: We just don't like each other." It is one of the nation's most bitter and most entertaining rivalries. When Spurrier arrived at Florida (7-0) in 1990, he knew very well about some of the pain and suffering the Dawgs had inflicted on the Gators. And he holds a grudge. He started a trend that has seen Florida win 16 of the last 19 meetings, and the Gators have inflicted some pain and suffering of their own. In 2002, the loss to Florida was the only thing that kept the otherwise unbeaten Bulldogs from playing for the national championship. This year, the analysis is simple. The instant that Florida takes the lead, they can start to feel comfortable. If the lead gets to double digits, the game is over. Georgia will not score on the nation's best defense, and Florida's offense is like a trap waiting to be sprung. When it breaks loose, it's going to be a thing of beauty. Or it's going to be ugly. If you're a Dawg. Gators win.

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