Anatomy of an Upset

Upsets are among the things that make college football great. Who doesn’t like to see a seemingly hopeless underdog find something akin to divine inspiration, take advantage of their opponent's miscues, and, with help from the phases of the moon, and possibly a rabbit’s foot, somehow score a point or two more than the once-feared favorite? Sympathizing with the underdog is something that seems to be stitched into the fabric of the American character. I lapse into ridiculous giggling when I watch an upset. I think it was W.C. Fields who said, “Comedy is tragedy happening to somebody else.”

I definitely enjoy a good upset every now and then. Unless it happens to my team. In which case, it’s not fun at all. When my teams loses a game in which they were heavy favorites, it is clearly the result of an infuriating failure on the part of every player, coach and referee who had anything to do with it. Isn’t it?

After the fifth Saturday in the fall for the past two years, I've had alot to laugh about. And complain about.

Last year, in Week 5 of the college football season, five of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. This year, in week five – this past Saturday – four of the top ten teams lost, including Florida. Nine of the top twenty-five teams lost. So many things have to happen in just the right way for a major upset to occur. Since I’m painfully acquainted with Mississippi’s shocking win over Florida, let’s examine that in some detail.

Leading 17-7, after two lackluster opening periods, the Gators opened the second half with two fumbles in their own end of the field, resulting in 10 quick Mississippi points. The Gators hadn’t turned the ball over at all in three previous games, but lost three fumbles Saturday. Combine sloppy ball-handling with a 40 yard touchdown run by Rebel tailback Dexter McCluster late in the third quarter – a run on which the Gator defense missed three or four tackles – and that provided the scoring burst that decided the game.



The Rebels blitzed the Florida offense repeatedly, causing turmoil in the offensive line and, thus, in the offensive backfield. When the offense sputtered, field position suffered. In the first three games, no Gator opponent had started a drive in Florida’s end of the field. On Saturday, Mississippi began drives in Gator territory six times. Seven times the Gators faced third down with ten or more yards to go. No wonder they were one of eleven on third down conversions. Mississippi had 325 yards of total offense, but 170 of them came on just four plays – two of which were backbreakers for the Gators – McCluster’s 40 yard run, and an 86 yard touchdown pass from Rebel QB Jevan Snead to Shay Hodge with just over five minutes left in the game.

I take nothing from the effort that the Rebel players put forth. They played hard. But Mississippi had many things go right for them and many things go wrong for the Gators, and still needed to block an extra point attempt with 3:28 remaining, and stop Tim Tebow on a fourth and one on their own 32 yard line with 40 seconds on the clock to preserve the one point victory. Such is the nature of an upset.

Southern California, Georgia and Wisconsin suffered the same kind of disappointment on Saturday. Of course, I laughed when it happened to them.

If you don’t think this is a strange college football season already, imagine this: Kentucky and Vanderbilt are now the only unbeaten teams remaining in the SEC’s East Division.

Afterbirth (Week 5)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

What's the Deal with Week 5?

In the first month of the season, you knew something wasn’t quite right when Vanderbilt broke into the Top 25, and Wake Forest looked like the best team in the ACC. During those first four weeks, you hope you can start to get an idea which teams are genuinely good, and which teams are simply riding a worthless wave of media hype. And right when you think you’re starting to make sense of it all, Week 5 arrives. In Week 5 last year, five of the top ten teams lost. This year four of the top ten teams, and nine of the top twenty-five, lost. If I’m a coach at a major college, I’ve got to at least think about how to adjust my schedule to get a bye week in Week 5.

Badgers? We Don't Need No Stinking Badgers.

What does it take to revive bowl hopes in Ann Arbor? A vastly overrated Wisconsin team. After dominating the first half, and leading 19-0, the Badgers fell asleep in the locker room. Following the intermission, Michigan scored 27 unanswered points, and held on to win 27-25. Wisconsin’s next five games: Ohio State, Penn State, @ Iowa, Illinois, @ Michigan State. This is a team that will be 6-3 by the second week of November.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

I hate Miami, but you have to give them credit for two crushing blocks on the same punt return in their loss to North Carolina. Video below:



How About a Handoff?

It’s easy to sit on a barstool, beer in hand, and second guess some of the decisions made every weekend in the fall. I’ll admit it’s MUCH easier than being the guy making the decisions. Having said that, I couldn’t help but wonder why Louisville was passing the ball on 3rd and 7 from their own 40 yard line with 2:56 left in the game, and a one point lead. Connecticut quarterback Tyler Lorenzen had left the game with a broken foot, and the Huskies’ offense had been inconsistent. You’ve got to like your chances punting from near midfield, and that’s assuming a third down handoff wouldn’t have gotten the necessary first down yardage. Instead, Cardinal quarterback Hunter Cantwell threw an ugly pass into the flat that was intercepted and returned for the winning touchdown. Do you think Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe would like to have a do-over on that one?

Thanks for the 411. Now Piss Off.

I hate sportswriters. Talk about lemmings. How much propaganda did we have to read about USC before this season started, and right up until 11 o’clock Thursday night? After that, every writer in the country was scrambling to revise his previous assessment of the Trojan prowess. Now everyone wants to point out that USC has lost to Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State over the last three years. Oregon State twice. Why didn’t you tell us that before Thursday night?

Sportswriters are in on the same conference calls, and get the same information every week. They share their thoughts so that mistaken impressions get compounded. Rumor becomes idea. Idea becomes story. Story becomes fact. Then it gets crammed down our collective throats like it’s the gridiron gospel. It takes a hard worker and a sharp thinker to see things from a different angle. So what you tend to get is different versions of the same story. Unlike most people, I was not impressed with USC’s win over Virginia in Week 2, and I said so, right here.

I’m not always right. Far from it. But I’m right just about as often as the people who present themselves as experts. That’s something that should scare you. Especially when you think about how much you rely on media for information.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#1 USC @ Oregon State
As noted in my previous entry, Oregon State has had some success against Southern California. The Beavers’ somewhat shocking 33-31 victory in 2006 stopped the Trojans’ 38 game regular season winning streak. While I’m normally not in favor of Trojan-busting, I’m all for it this year. Unfortunately, the Beavers don't appear to be capable of another shocker.

Connecticut @ Louisville
I’ve seen Louisville play once this year – in the opening loss to Kentucky - and their defense was downright offensive. It appears as if they've improved since then. They are 2nd in the nation against the run. Connecticut leads the Big East and ranks 6th in the nation in rushing offense. Something’s gotta give. The Huskies are 4-0 so far, but have struggled at times getting there. My gut feeling is to pick Connecticut, so I’m going to take the Cardinals at home in a squeaker.

Mississippi @ #4 Florida
In the last two games, Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead has thrown 6 interceptions and no touchdown passes. Florida is not the best team to play when you’re turnover prone – the Gators are tied for 2nd in the nation in turnover margin, and are the only team in the nation that has yet to lose a fumble or throw an interception. This year’s Gator squad is winning the battle of field position with solid defense and stellar special teams play. The Rebels are not bad, but not good enough to beat the Gators at home.

Tennessee @ #15 Auburn
The Gators slugged Tennessee 59-20 last year, but the Vols rebounded to pound Georgia and win the SEC’s East Division. The optimists in Knoxville (all three of them) are hoping this year’s squad can pull off a similar miracle after demoralizing losses to UCLA and, once again, Florida. Auburn is not particularly bad at anything, but not particularly good at anything either. My partly insane friend Ron thinks the Vols have a chance of pulling off an upset in Auburn. When he told me that, I thought briefly about the possibility, and quietly went to check his medicine cabinet to see if the anti-psychotic prescriptions had expired. Then I decided he might be right. The Vols need to regroup, and the loveliest village on the plains is just the place to do it.

#25 Fresno State @ UCLA
Statistically speaking, Fresno State and UCLA are not impressive. But every time I’ve watched the Bulldogs, they play a tough, physical style of ball, and I love that. Add that to the fact that I hate first year Bruin head coach Rick Nueheisel, and you get me picking Fresno State over the Teddy Bears.

#9 Wisconsin @ Michigan
Every time I pick a Wisconsin game, I try to mention that I think they are the most consistently over-rated team in college football. (Sorry, Bart). You know they are going to lose a game somewhere. But not this Saturday. The Badgers haven’t won a game in Ann Arbor since 1994. It’s time.

#24 TCU @ #2 Oklahoma
On paper, TCU looks like a very good team. Too bad they don’t play these games on paper. The Horned Frogs have beaten up the likes of New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and SMU. TCU has won the last two games in Norman, but that was in 2005 and 1996. It won’t be in 2008. I think TCU is a legitimately good team. I just think Oklahoma is a legitimately better team.

#8 Alabama @ #3 Georgia
Alabama has been one of the major surprises of this young season. Sort of. Nobody expected them to dominate Clemson the way they did in the opener. But their subsequent victories, while convincing, can’t be called surprising. Come on. We’re talking about Tulane, Western Kentucky and a lousy Arkansas team. The Tide is very much improved in Nick Saban’s second year, but not good enough to beat the Dawgs between the hedges.

#22 Illinois @ #12 Penn State
Believe it or not, Penn State has won 23 of the last 25 games in Happy Valley. When I have doubts, I always pick against the team coached by Ron Zook. And I have no doubts about this one. Papa Joe and Penn State win this one.

Colorado vs Florida State (Jacksonville)
Let me make this as clear as I can. I hate Florida State. Last week, I giggled like a school girl watching Wake Forest beat the ‘Noles for the third straight year. FSU quarterbacks combined for 5 interceptions against the Demon Decons. Unfortunately, the Seminoles seem to be decent on defense, and may keep the Buffs from scoring enough points to win.

Bonus Pick: Purdue over Notre Dame in South Bend

This Just In

Sources in Knoxville are saying Tennessee head coach Phillip Fulmer will step down at an 11 A.M. news conference tomorrow. Apparently he's going to take a job with FEMA due to his ability to evacuate 100,000 people in less than three hours.

JUST KIDDING! HAHAHAHAHA.......



Sorry coach. Couldn't resist.

Nope. Won't Go There. OK. Maybe I Will.

I’m no longer a sophomore in high school, so I’m trying desperately to avoid the obvious opportunity to make tasteless jokes about Thursday night’s college football game. The game itself is interesting enough, and the anticipation of it doesn’t need to be tainted with locker room humor. Obviously, USC has a lot on the line. It seems they’ve been pre-ordained as this year’s kings of college football. But Oregon State is one team that can claim some success over Southern California in recent years – having won 2 of the last 4 games in Corvallis, including a surprising 33-31 win in 2006.

Still, it’s the Trojans against the Beavers, and I’m having a hard time letting that fact slip past my adolescent fun meter. ;)

Afterbirth (Week 4)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

I Rock. 'Noles Suck

I would like to point out that I went 9-0 on my Crystal Ball picks last week. Wake Forest kicker Sam Swank almost made me regret giving him props. After hitting 18 field goals in a row, dating back to last season, he was 4 for 7 Saturday night against Florida State. Fortunately, the Demon Deacons needed only two of those field goals to beat the Seminoles. The mighty ‘Noles had seven turnovers in the game, and their quarterbacks combined to go 12 for 36 passing with 5 interceptions.

What is the World Coming to?

You know that the stars are re-aligning when Vanderbilt breaks into the AP Top 25. Do you remember the last time the Commodores were ranked? Of course you do. It was in 1984. The number one song on the Billboard charts was John Waite’s “Missing You.” It displaced “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” by Tina Turner. Vandy has started this season 4-0, something they have done only four times since the war. As in World War II. I think Bobby Johnson is a heckuva coach, and he has Vanderbilt playing about as well as they can be expected to play. The toughest part of their schedule is still ahead of them, but, for now, I enjoy every time I look at the polls and see “Vanderbilt.”

School of Hard Knox

Knoxville News Sentinel sports writer John Adams wrote a great COLUMN following Tennessee’s pathetic showing against Florida. Among the memorable quotes: “What does Florida's Brandon James have to do for UT to stop kicking him the ball? Score twice on one play?”

In the Chase for the Heisman

If you think the Heisman Trophy is all about putting up great numbers, consider the day that Missouri’s Chase Daniel had on Saturday. He attempted 43 passes, completing 36 of them for 439 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. But the really remarkable thing is that, at one point in the game, he completed 20 straight passes, a Big 12 conference record.

Speaking of Numbers

Florida’s Tim Tebow isn’t putting up numbers like he did last season. He hasn’t had to. Florida’s defense is much improved, and the coaching staff hasn’t flipped past the first few pages of the offensive playbook in wins over Hawaii, Miami and Tennessee. But I found this stat, and this quote, on ESPN.com "...Tebow's going to be there when the Gators need him. Even though it wasn't his best day against the Vols, he was 6-of-8 for 95 yards and two touchdowns on third down." Now that's impressive.

Can't Blame the Rats

I was thinking about this after seeing highlights of the Rutgers 23-21 loss to Navy, during which Scarlet Knight QB Mike Teel took a swing at one of his teammates in sheer frustration. I often wonder about coaches who change jobs like they change clothes, jumping at “better” opportunities like rats leaving a sinking ship, with an apparent lack of regard for their current institution. But, if I may add another outdated metaphor, you have to strike while the iron is hot in the coaching profession. Or you end up like Greg Schiano at Rutgers.

In 2006, Schiano coached his team to a remarkable 11-2 record after decades of football futility in Piscataway. Suddenly, everyone was impressed. Athletic directors at bigger and better programs were interested. Schiano, undoubtedly flattered by the attention, insisted he was committed to the State University of New Jersey. In appreciation, Rutgers granted him a contract extension. Then the Scarlet Knights stumbled through an 8-5 season last year. This season, they’ve started 0-3, including Saturday’s loss to Navy, and they haven’t played a Big East conference game yet. If Schiano didn’t have a contract holding him in place, you wonder if he could even get a job managing a Taco Bell in Hackensack.

I can think of two other coaches who probably should have jumped ship while they had the chance. Kirk Ferentz led Iowa to consecutive records of 11-2, 10-3 and 10-2 starting in 2002. Other major universities showed interest. The NFL showed interest. Ferentz stayed in Iowa City. Only to suffer through a 6-7 season in 2006 and a 6-6 record last year. Jeff Tedford caught the eye of the college football world when his California Bears upset USC in 2003. By 2006, he had coached his team to a 10-3 record, and a high profile to which they were unaccustomed. Last season, Cal started 5-0 but lost 6 of their last 7 before finishing with an Armed Services Bowl win over Air Force. This year they’ve started 2-1, but were physically dominated in an unexpected loss to Maryand (click here for evidence). Both of these guys could have commanded big bucks just a few years ago. Now, they might be lucky to keep the jobs they have. So, when the rats jump ship for a bigger and better one, who can blame them? The ship they’re on now may start sinking in a year or two.

Look. Up in the Sky. It's a Bird. It's a Plane. No. It's a Scoreboard

For some unfathomable reason, Arkansas defensive end Damario Ambrose (#58) started spouting trash to Alabama’s John Parker Wilson on Saturday. This despite the fact that the Razorbacks trailed 42-7 at the time. I mean, what could he possibly have said? Only John Parker Wilson knows. But the Tide quarterback did the best thing a mature senior leader could do. He reminded Ambrose that there was a scoreboard at the end of the field displaying the numeric representation of a complete ass-kicking.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#21 West Virginia @ Colorado
Colorado is still rebuilding under Dan Hawkins. West Virginia is still wondering what happened against East Carolina. My gut feeling is to go with the Mountaineers. But my gut feelings have been all wrong lately. The Buffs win a close one.

Iowa @ Pittsburgh
This game features two teams that missed out on bowls last year, and two schools whose alumni have come to expect them. Pittsburgh is still trying to recover from the season-opening loss to Bowling Green. If the Panthers lose this one, Dave Wannstedt may find for-sale signs planted on his front lawn.

#9 Alabama @ Arkansas
The Tide seems much improved in Nick Saban’s second year. The Hogs have struggled with Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Roll Tide.

Arizona @ UCLA
Two weeks ago, this looked like a key early game in the Pac 10 race. Then Arizona lost to New Mexico, and UCLA got destroyed by BYU. UCLA is dead last in the nation in rushing offense. That’s right, 119th. And Arizona has a decent passing attack. Arizona wins this one.

#4 Florida @ Tennessee
Phil Fulmer is 142-34 against the rest of college football, and 5-11 against Florida. Of course, it didn’t help that the Gators were coached by a guy named Spurrier for 12 years. Now they’re coached by a guy named Meyer who is 3-0 against the Vols in his short tenure in Gainesville. The Gator defense is improved. The offense is improving. Tennessee seemed very ordinary in the loss to UCLA. Who are the playmakers on that squad? Look for the Vols to keep it interesting for a while, but expect a Gator victory.

Miami @ Texas A&M
The Aggies opened the season with a home loss to Arkansas State, followed by an unimpressive win over New Mexico. How bad are they? Miami’s offense still needs work, but the defense is excellent. This one won’t be close. Just remember, you can’t spell scum without UM.

#18 Wake Forest @ #24 Florida State
I should be honest here. I hate Florida State. If Adolph Hitler and his boys came back to life for a day and played the ‘Noles, I’d root for the Nazis. St. Bobby is getting some pretty good quarterback play from Christian Ponder. But Wake Forest has won two straight over Florida State, including an extremely enjoyable 30-0 pounding in Tallahassee in 2006. Wake Forest plays with discipline, and they make few mistakes. Unless Florida State. Demon Deacon QB Riley Skinner is now officially the most accurate passer in the history of the Atlantic Coast Conference. And you gotta like any team with a kicker named Sam Swank.

#6 LSU @ #10 Auburn
These are two offenses that haven’t gelled, but two very good defenses. When these two teams meet, it is typically a low scoring affair. LSU is 5th in the nation in rushing defense. Auburn is 9th. Eleven of the last eighteen games in this series have been decided by seven points or less. Something’s gotta give. Something tells me the Tigers will win. Haha! Just kidding. The LSU Tigers.

#3 Georgia @ Arizona State
The Sun Devils started this season looking for respect. Then they lost to UNLV. So now they’re just trying to save face. Georgia is the wrong team to play when you’re in search of redemption. The Dawgs have a remarkable road record under Mark Richt, 26-4 to be exact. Soon to be 27-4.

Gators Need a Good Scrimmage. Any Volunteers?

Those of you who know me know that I am a Gator fan. If you didn't know that, well, you do now. This is a big week for Gators around the globe. It's the week of the first conference game. It's the week that Florida travels to Knoxville. With that in mind, this seems like the perfect time to share with you the best sentiment I have ever seen expressed on ESPN's College Gameday.



The Other Trojans

This week, the former Sweatervest Juggernaut has to play the Trojans again. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, it's the Trojans from the University of Troy and not the Trojans who made Ohio State look like a Pop Warner team last Saturday.

Apparently, I wasn't the only one who noticed that Ohio State seemed to move the ball more effectively with Terrelle Pryor as the quarterback. An article on CBS Sportsline notes: "Against USC, he (Pryor) was at quarterback for 25 plays, Boeckman for 39. The Buckeyes averaged 5.1 yards on Pryor's plays, 2.8 on Boeckman's." The question is, why didn't Jim Tressel notice? I mean, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do?

Jahvid Best, Meet Kevin Barnes

There was a bunch of good college football on TV this past Saturday. A whole bunch. If you started at 10:00 AM (EST) with Gameday, and went until the end of the Fresno State-Wisconsin game, like I did, you enjoyed almost 16 hours of college football! If you were trying to pace yourself, and didn't tune in to the early games, you missed a classic slobberknocker.



Early Pick! Kansas State @ Louisville

If this is part of a movement to schedule college football games on almost every day of the week except Sunday, I second the motion. Tonight, we get a rare and interesting Wednesday night college football game with Kansas State visiting Louisville. In the name of full disclosure, I have to admit I have no idea which team to pick. I have yet to see Kansas State play. Statistically speaking, they are superior to the Cardinals in every category. But, their first two games were against North Texas and Montana State, games in which they outscored their opponents 114-16. I did watch Kentucky beat Louisville in the season opener, and the Cardinal defense was not good. Two years ago, Lousiville was 12-1 and playing in the Orange Bowl. Then Bobby Petrino jumped ship - a move in which he apparently set a personal trend - and Steve Kragthorpe was hired to stop the bleeding in a 6-6 season last year. Kansas State, meanwhile, finished 5-7 last year, and signed a platoon of JUCO transfers hoping for an immediate fix. I think both teams are mediocre, but the Wildcats are just good enough to win this one.

Afterbirth (Week 3)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over

The Myth of the Sweatervest Juggernaut Stops Here

Let’s all agree, right here, right now, to end the Myth of the Sweatervest Juggernaut. Ohio State hasn’t won a big game since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, and, while I will be eternally grateful for that controversial upset of the stinking U, I am now perennially annoyed that I have to listen to early season blabber about the Buckeyes being a great football team.



Let’s agree to leave them out of the preseason top 10, out of any mention of Heisman or any other trophies, and off the list of national championship contenders until they show that they can behave like anything other than the sweatervest-wearing whiners they have become. It is apparent that, while your coach dresses like Mister Rogers, your team plays like Mister Rogers. Win a big game. Outside the Big 10+1. Then come talk to me.

Will anybody beat either USC or Oklahoma this year?

If I had to bet right now, I’d say NO. After last weekend, it looks like the Trojans won’t get much competition from the rest of the Pac 10. Cal got manhandled by a very average Maryland team. Arizona lost to previously winless New Mexico. Arizona State suffered an overtime loss to UNLV, and, as a consolation prize, get to host the Georgia Bulldogs this week. UCLA couldn’t manage a single point against a BYU team that scored 59 of them. Oregon State finally collected a win against Hawaii after losing their first two. Oregon, although they won a tough game at Purdue, is now down to their third string quarterback. And the Washington teams look terrible, collectively going 0-6 to start the season. Who will beat the Trojans?

Oklahoma has yet to score less than 52 points in each of their first three games. QB Sam Bradshaw is the real deal – currently second in the nation in passing efficiency. But the Sooners have a much tougher road. Saturdays will be a little harder as they begin conference play. I think the top four teams in each division of the Big 12 would be competitive in any other league besides their own and the SEC.

So Much for Crystal Balls

Okay, so I was a very dismal 4-5 this week in my predictions. But, seriously, other than my Ohio State pick – a mistake I will NEVER make again, now that we’ve all agreed that the Sweatervest Juggernaut is not – I had a lot of close calls. Kansas led South Florida 20-3 at one point before collapsing in the second half. Fresno State had opportunities to beat Wisconsin in a close game. The Battle of the Tech’s was another close one. And, while some may have predicted a Notre Dame victory, nobody could have predicted the Michigan turnover avalanche that sealed their fate early.

I swear I’ll do much better this week. Probably.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#5 Ohio State @ #1 USC
Just for the record, I hate both of these teams. I think USC pays its players. I think Ohio State fans suck. Back in the days before the overtime format in college football, I asked an old friend of mine, a Gator fan, what outcome he hoped for when Florida State and Miami played each other. He replied, “I hope it ends in a scoreless tie with everybody (on both teams) dead.” That’s how I feel about this game. But, I get paid the big bucks (uh huh, right) to make a prediction, so here goes. My gut tells me that USC is a better team. And they are at home. But there is a little part of me that thinks Ohio State has spent a long time hearing that they are going to get steam-rolled in this game, and they’re probably a little pissed about it. I don’ t know why, but I’m going to listen to that little part of me and pick Ohio State.

#2 Georgia @ South Carolina
Steve Spurrier hates Georgia. And God bless him for that. And, despite pulling off the big upset in Athens last year, I don’t think the Cocks have the horses to beat the Dawgs this year. Surprisingly, the one thing Spurrier HASN’T gotten in his years in Columbia is good play from the QB position. He won’t get it this week either.

#10 Wisconsin @ #21 Fresno State
The Badgers bother me. Every year, they begin the season with lofty rankings. And every year, they beat the teams they should beat, and lose to Michigan or Ohio State. Last year, they didn’t play Michigan but they lost to Ohio State and Penn State. In 2006 they lost to Michigan, and didn’t play Ohio State. In 2005, they didn’t play Ohio State, and they managed to beat Michigan but lost to Penn State, Iowa and Northwestern. You see the pattern here. I think the Badgers may be good enough to beat the Bulldogs. Fresno’s win over Rutgers seems a little less impressive now that the Tarheels dismantled the Scarlet Knights in a thorough, demoralizing fashion. But since I’ll be rooting for Fresno State in this one, I’m going to pick them.

UCLA @ #18 BYU
Somehow, I’ve gotten over the hatred I had for BYU that stemmed from them winning the national championship by default in 1984. I don’t really like them. I just don’t hate them anymore. I DO, however, hate Bruin head coach Rick Neuheisel. BYU has won 12 games in a row – the nation’s longest winning streak. UCLA has lost 10 of its last 13 road games. I’m going with the Cougars.

#13 Kansas @ #19 South Florida
South Florida is a 3.5 point favorite in this one, but they struggled against UCF, needing overtime to pull out a 31-24 victory. Both teams are trying to establish themselves as perennial Top 25 material. Kansas won their first 11 games last year. South Florida finished 9-4 last year, but managed to beat then #17 Auburn, and pulled off a stunning upset of then #5 West Virginia. I’d like to pull for the Bulls, but I think Kansas may be the better team.

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State pulled 8 wins out of a hat last year, including surprising road wins over Auburn and Kentucky, and a home win over Alabama. They started this year with a loss at Louisiana tech, followed by a home win against Southeastern Louisiana. Auburn seems to have their QB situation settled, and, frankly, they just appear to be a better team. This game could be close, but I think the Tigers pull it off.

#16 Oregon @ Purdue
Oregon may have the worst QB luck of any team in the country. Dennis Dixon’s knee injury probably cost them a shot at the national championship last year. Then they lost projected starter Nate Costa at the beginning of fall drills this year. But, somehow, they lead the nation in total offense. Purdue, on the other hand, is riding a 14 game losing streak against ranked opponents. They’ve been known to throw the ball around a bit themselves, but I don’t think they can swim with the Ducks for very long.

Michigan @ Notre Dame
Did you ever think this game would roll around one pleasant fall and nobody would care? Michigan can’t seem to win a season opener now, and Notre Dame can’t seem to win at all. The oddsmakers have Michigan as a 2 point favorite on the road. I hate Michigan. But I hate Notre Dame worse.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech is re-tooling under new head coach Paul Johnson. Virginia Tech is rebuilding after losing eight players to the NFL draft. Georgia Tech is one of 29 teams that have yet to throw an interception this year. Of course, they rank 111th in passing offense, having attempted only 28 passes in two games. If they can’t run on Virginia Tech, this game is over. Virginia Tech is one of only two teams to win 10 or more games in each of the last four seasons. But, in the battle of Tech’s, I think the Yellowjackets pull off the slight upset.

Last Words for Randy Shannon

So... I'm ALMOST done with this whole Miami whining thing. I just have one thing left to say to Randy Shannon:



It's clear he doesn't understand subtleties. By offering up this image of mean old Urban Meyer kicking late field goals, Shannon claims, "...it helped us. It helped us more than you'll ever know." Presumably, he means it helped with recruiting.



But here's the point he is missing. By whining about somebody - anybody - running up the score on the once-mighty U, he is, in essence, admitting that the program has fallen to the level of opening day patsy upon whom the football powerhouses of the world should take pity. Note to Randy: We KNOW your program has fallen, and fallen a long, long way. But thanks for reminding us, and reminding all your potential recruits. We appreciate it.

If you're still hungry for more on the subject, there is a great article by Greg Doyell of CBS Sports.com HERE

Okay, I'm done now. On to bigger and better things. Much bigger. And much better.

A Little Cheese With That W(h)ine?

Here's a surprise... Hurricane fans are complaining that Florida "ran up the score" by kicking a field goal with 28 seconds left. Like this moron on the ESPN conversation boards - "Florida has no class whatsoever. Kicking a field goal with 8 seconds left?" Actually, it was 28 seconds, but, whatever. "The mere fact that they drove the ball that possession alone is incredibly unsportsmanlike. Yes, they opened it up in the fourth quarter, and by that point deserved to win, but not like that." Or, consider the words of Miami head coach Randy Shannon, "I'll just say this one statement. Sometimes when you do things and people see what kind of person you really are you turn a lot of people off. Now whatever you want to get out of that I won't say it again. But it helped us. It helped us more than you'll ever know."

I wondered about the decision at the time, but let's think about it. What should the Gators have done? Take a knee, and just hand the ball back to Miami? Would that make them feel better? Toss one into the corner of the end zone? Hand the ball off? What if the running play had gotten a first down? Or a touchdown? Would that still be classless?

Let's look at reality. This wasn't Our Lady of Great Agony Prep School. This was Miami. First, if the 'Canes have sunk to such a point that they need to complain about somebody - anybody - running up the score on them, well, the irony is palpable. Secondly, let's look at this Box Score from Miami's game against Texas A&M last year in which the 'Canes kicked a field goal with 2:07 left in the game, despite having a 21 point lead. Was that running up the score? Isn't it interesting how you apply a double standard when someone is doing that to you as opposed to the other way around? Thirdly, consider Urban Meyer's explanation after the game. That was the first time Gator kicker Jonathan Phillips had attempted a field goal in a game. With 8 touchdowns in the previous game against Hawaii, Florida attempted no field goals. Now Phillips has one career field goal attempt in a game setting. Granted, it was a meaningless field goal, in terms of the outcome of the game, but it got him out there in front of the crowd, under the lights, with at least a little pressure to succeed. The Gators may need a clutch field goal against Tennessee in two weeks. Meyer can feel at least slightly better now that his kicker is 1 for 1 instead of 0 for 0. So the whiney Hurricane fans should shut their stinking traps. You lost. And you lost to a better team. Deal with it.

But, just for good measure, I dug up this nice old video highlight (below) that reflects how Gators feel about 'Canes. It's Jarvis Williams hitting Melvin Bratton back in the day. It almost brings tears to my eyes.

Afterbirth (Week 2)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

Quickies

I hate to say this, because I think, in terms of class and character, that the Miami Hurricane football team resembles a work release program from the county jail. But their defense is excellent. Based on what we’ve seen from the ACC so far this season, the ‘Canes might be among the league’s best. If they find some offense to go with that defense, they could find themselves paying for the league title.

Suddenly, I’m a Pirate fan. In consecutive weeks, East Carolina has upset Virginia Tech and laid waste to West Virginia. Could they be the next BCS party crasher?

The Big Least

How bad is the Big East? In the first two weeks of this season, Louisville was handled by Kentucky, Fresno State won at Rutgers, Bowling Green beat Pittsburgh, Syracuse was pummeled by Akron (Akron!?) and East Carolina squashed West Virginia.

Who Knows What Evil Lurks...?

I don't know what to think of USC yet. I'm sure they're good. They should be. They're well-paid. If you think Reggie Bush was the only Trojan ever to receive improper benefits, I've got some swampland in Nevada to sell you. But I wanted to puke when the national media crowed about USC's 52-7 drubbing of Virginia last week. Virginia is a lousy team in a lousy league. Yesterday, the Cavs led Richmond, yes the mighty Richmond Spiders, by a score of 3-0 until there was 7:30 remaining in the 4th quarter. USC may beat the hell out of Ohio State this Saturday, but don't try to convince me that they're good based on a lopsided victory over Virginia. At this point, I'm not even sure a win over Ohio State will be all that impressive. If Ohio U hadn't turned the ball over 5 times against the Buckeyes, the outcome of that game could have been different.

For the record, I hate USC. And I hate Ohio State worse.

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

#24 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
Does South Carolina have a genuinely good defense? Or is NC State just that bad? It’s hard to tell after last Thursday’s game. But I think Bobby Johnson is a good coach, and has the Commodores playing as well as they can be expected to play.

Georgia Tech @ Boston College
These are two teams that are shells of their former selves, and both are coming off lackluster victories over outmanned opponents in their season opener. All other things being equal, I’ll take the home-standing Eagles.

Cincinnati @ #4 Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 27-2 in non-conference home games since Bob Stoops took over in 1999. But Cincinnati has become the type of scrappy team that makes these games a bit more interesting. I’d love to see an upset here. I’ve never found a reason to like Oklahoma. But I think they have too many horses for the Bearcats.

Oregon State @ #22 Penn State
If I’m reading this crap right, it looks like Penn State is a 2 touchdown favorite in this game. I know they scored 66 points in this first game, but… it was Coastal Carolina for Christ’s sake. Any team called the Chanticleers shouldn’t even be allowed to play football. The Beavers led the nation in rushing defense last year, but has only three starters returning to that unit. After a disappointing road loss to Stanford in their opener (a game in which the mighty Cardinal rushed for 210 yards), this appears to be the recipe for Oregon State to start the season 0-2.

Mississippi @ #23 Wake Forest
It’s hard not to like Wake Forest. After years of being everybody’s Homecoming opponent, Jim Grobe has the Demon Deacons playing efficient offense and tough defense. Mississippi performed well in their first game under coach Houston Nutt – a 41-24 win over a scrappy Memphis team. I’ll go with the home team.

#19 South Florida @ Central Florida
I’ve never liked UCF. Their fans have all the attitude of Miami fans, and none of the history. They built a nice, new on-campus stadium which turns out to be just another place for them to lose. South Florida has had some big wins in the last few years – key triumphs that kept us from being saddled with an unbeaten Big East team pretending to be a BCS championship contender. I’ll always love them for that.

Miami @ #5 Florida
This is Florida’s chance to show that they have addressed the defensive woes that occasionally plagued them in 2007. These are two teams that don’t like each other, and the Gators feel like they have something to prove. Miami is still in re-building mode under 2nd year coach Randy Shannon. Or maybe they are in holy-God-I-hope-we’re-not-sliding-backward-mode. This game will tell us which team is moving up, and which team isn’t.

Afterbirth (Week 1)

You know... the stuff that just kind of falls out when the party's over.

Quickies

I didn’t put the Illinois vs Missouri game on my picks for Week 1, but I should have. I admit it, I was a slacker. Going into the game, I had a hard time deciding which team to pick. In retrospect, when in doubt, always pick against the team that is coached by Ron Zook.

Is Alabama that good? Or is Clemson that bad? Alabama’s defense held the Tigers to 188 total yards, including – get this – 0 net yards rushing, while the Tide ran very well behind a mammoth offensive line. QB John Parker Wilson looked calm and relatively efficient (22 of 30 for 180 yards and two TD’s), and the Tide held the ball for more than 41 minutes. Seriously, is that the best that the ACC has to offer?

Tennessee should be ashamed of themselves for playing vanilla defense in the second half against UCLA, and making Kevin Craft look like Johnny Unitas. They should have attacked the young quarterback fiercely, repeatedly, and not let him get hot and build his confidence. Even I know that.

Isn't That Special?

How ironic that the team known, above all else, for special teams play, was victimized by a special teams breakdown. East Carolina blocked a Virginia Tech punt with 1:52 left in the game and returned it for a touchdown to seal the victory in one of the weekend's big upsets.

The Two Utes

Other than the Vols and the Bruins, the best game on TV was Utah's win over Michigan. Why didn't I have the stones to pick the Utes? And can anyone say "Utes" without thinking of this moment from My Cousin Vinny?

My Crystal Ball Says...

...that I know what will happen in this week's key games. Always remember that I'm right, and your team sucks.

Hawaii @ #5 Florida
At the end of last season, even with Colt Brennan and their top 4 receiver, the Warriors couldn’t keep up with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Do you really think that, without those players and with a new coach, they can keep up with Florida in the Swamp?

#17 Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (Charlotte)
Virgina Tech won 17-7 last year in Blacksburg, and this year’s team is only a shell of its former ACC championship self. It should be another very interesting game, but I’m not sure the Pirates will have enough to pull off the upset.

Utah @ #24 Michigan
This game reminds me of the Virginia Tech/East Carolina game. There’s a part of me that thinks Utah can win, but the rest of me had a hard time imagining the Wolverines losing this one at home – despite having a new coach and a re-tooled offense.

#21 Oregon @ Washington
Despite having the worst possible luck at the QB position, losing potential Heisman winner Dennis Dixon to a knee injury late last year, and then losing this year’s projected starter Nate Costa just before the start of the season, Oregon looks better than Washington.

#18 Tennessee @ UCLA
First year coach Rick Neuheisel has some work to do at UCLA, but I think they’ll be better than expected. I still think Tennessee should be able to handle them, and they’ll certainly want to avoid a repeat of last year’s West coast embarrassment at Cal.

#24 Alabama vs #9 Clemson (Atlanta)
I’m not really sure why Clemson has gotten so much hype this year. I think they may be the best team in a lousy league. And look for Alabama to be much improved in the second year under Nick Saban.

This season has already gotten off to an interesting start.

LOTS of people had Miami (of Ohio) beating Vandy, but the Commodores pulled it off, on the road no less. NC State and South Carolina looked pretty lousy on Thursday night, but, in the end, the Gamecocks were less lousy. I think the ACC is going to be only slightly better than a good high school league this fall. And who wasn't surprised when Stanford recovered a late goal line fumble and held on to beat the Beavers (ok, I always snicker when I say that) of Oregon State?